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Opinion

Trump wins – is it time to panic in Wales?

15 Nov 2024 7 minute read
Donald Trump campaigning in Arizona. Image: Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0

Jonathan Edwards

A week after the US elections, the world seems a very different place already.

I must admit I don’t normally get that engrossed in US elections. I never understood why it seemed to me to get more coverage than domestic elections in the UK media – certainly far more attention than our national election here in Wales.

Because the Democrats and Republicans have traditionally pursued a triangulation political strategy I couldn’t tell the difference between each party. My confusion was further exacerbated after spending time in Washington with both Democrats and Republicans.

It seemed to me that the political divide was based on what tribe you associated yourself with as opposed to any meaningful policy differences.

The rise of Trump and his Make America Great Again movement has changed all this.

Living standards

What is clear is that the progressive side of politics has failed to react to the forces that right wing populism is mobilising. Namely that living standards are plummeting and the wealth divide between the rich and the poor is increasing.

The same happened here with Brexit, where those on the left politically, (apart from the Eurosceptic left) found themselves arguing for the status quo which many people felt was failing them.

This was despite spending the previous years campaigning against the treatment of the EU of Member States such as Greece with imposed super austerity following the financial crash of 2008; or trying to undermine the proposed Trade Agreement between the EU and US; and basically, arguing that the EU was a neo liberal elitist project.

Before I am accused of hypocrisy, I continue to argue that the UK Government’s best bet considering where we are, would be to realign with the European economic frameworks.

However, I do so as progressive forces have failed to compose a compelling alternative economic narrative since the Great Financial Crash of 2008.

Reduced living standards for a decade and a half; uncertain employment conditions; intergenerational wealth imbalance; the UK’s grotesque geographical wealth imbalances; the demise of the middle class with society split into very high earners or those receiving minimum wage, to name just a few factors, are leading to an age of rage.

The Guardian had an interesting article this week about how millennials can’t afford a mid-life crisis. That says it all.

Fury

Social media has provided the perfect medium for energising the fury – as a technology it inherently polarises.

Politics has moved from the art of triangulation and compromise to motivating your base. Both left and right are primarily interested in mobilising social media mobs.

The political left has long forgotten about its primary purpose: economic justice.

Instead, it comforts itself on identity issues.

All are noble causes. However, a political activist class has developed on the left that has little understanding of how to redress the economic imbalances in society.

The right responds to the identity politics of the left by mobilising far more powerful culture war strategies which motivate a wider group of people. I have come to the conclusion that the left of today is playing into the hands of the far right.

Parallel universes

The politics of the left has become all about purity on various issues. Spend some time in a pub in the Welsh valleys and then go to a Labour or Plaid Cymru conference and they are parallel universes.

When I was involved in politics, I was delighted that the average person who voted for me never read the party manifesto I was standing on. Not because I didn’t believe in the manifesto: it was just that those who were voting had a very different view on the world.

What has happened in the US could well come here to Wales if progressive forces don’t get their act together.

Trickledown economics from Cardiff Bay has failed – it hasn’t even got as far as Barry, let alone the wilds of the west or the north.

If the Welsh Government believes it lacks the fiscal powers to make a difference, it must demand them from Westminster.

I fear a great reckoning could well come very soon, if not in 2026, then 2030 looks completely frightening about what we might face.

Last week’s Survation poll which put Reform in third, only 10 points behind Labour, should send shivers down the spines of all sitting Senedd Members.

If the US election is anything to go by, the polls underestimated the support of the populist right.

Farage

We haven’t had Farage touring the Welsh valleys yet. He understands the rust belt politics employed by Trump better than anyone. There is a reason he launched the general election campaign in Merthyr.

If I was Andrew RT Davies or a Tory Senedd Member I would be in a state of complete panic. If Reform establish themselves in the polls ahead of the Conservatives, Tory support will collapse.

This further indicates that Reform has the potential to move beyond the 20% rating they enjoy in this poll. Aping Reform for the Tories isn’t working, so what’s Plan B?

Plaid Cymru is in full retreat to its traditional Welsh speaking rural hinterland. It has got absolutely nothing to say or anyone who can perform the task of speaking for the most populous parts of our country. Don’t get me wrong. I rate Delyth Jewell and Heledd Fychan highly, but the weakness of the Welsh media landscape will never allow them to develop into household political brands of their own to face down the challenge before us, Farage will have Facebook and X on tap.

Worryingly for Plaid, the general election results in Wales would indicate that Reform is firmly established as the challenger to Labour outside the ‘Fro Gymraeg’ already.

Furthermore, what was a Plaid Cymru – Labour stitch up with the new Senedd voting system could play right into the hands of Reform. The political incumbency built up by constituency members over the years will be of no value whatsoever come 2026 in a closed list system.

Conversely all Reform leaflets will have only one face on it.

If there is one crumb of comfort for the left of the political spectrum, the combined vote of Labour, Plaid and the Greens continues to be over the 50% mark.

The danger they face is that they more than likely will spend the next 18 months taking chunks out of each other.

Collaboration

I see no hope of collaboration before 2026. Rhun ap Iorwerth has set himself up as an opponent of the Welsh Government in the name of political expediency. It worked for him last July in terms of seat numbers, so low are the expectations these days. It is probably the right strategy for the 2026 election.

However, if he wants the next election to be about change, how can Plaid Cymru credibly make that case?

I suspect the clarion calls of Mr Farage will be far more potent. And at the end of the day Plaid know they will have to work with Labour somehow after the election if matters play out as expected.

What’s clear is that progressive politicians are going to have to come up with much better than the naïve proposal for the truth police to govern politics.

Wake up for all our sakes, before it’s too late.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 2010-2024


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Adrian
Adrian
24 days ago

Good article. As Mr Edwards alludes to, the left is completely obsessed with identity politics and crackpot virtue-signalling, as with, Net Zero and the gender identity rubbish. I don’t believe they’ll ever revise their world view; they’re just too far gone. The left in the USA slipped straight into ‘blame the electorate’ mode after the Trump victory. One female MSNBC host has specifically attacked white women for the result – this is, of course, racism but she gets a free pass as she’s black. The left persistently believe that their offering is pristine, even when nobody’s voting for it. This… Read more »

Last edited 24 days ago by Adrian
Llyn
Llyn
24 days ago
Reply to  Adrian

It is a good article. However, as a liberal I won’t any time back down in my belief that far-right populism is not the answer. For example, Brexit has been a complete disaster and I won’t shy away from blaming those who voted for it as being completely deluded.

As for your accusations that the left is “deeply authoritarian” while backing a narcissist who wants to put on trial his political opponents, that says it all. BTW only in the fevered minds of the far-right will Starmer bankrupt Britain.

Adrian
Adrian
24 days ago
Reply to  Llyn

A couple of things. Even Hitler and Mussolini were historically labeled ‘right wing’: your notion of Trump being ‘far right’ is absurd and demonstrates a pitiful lack of perspective. At no point did I ‘back’ Trump so it’d be great if you could respond to my actual words, rather than ones you make up. Oh, and regarding Starmer, the state of the UK economy, and of the UK in general, speaks for itself.

Llyn
Llyn
24 days ago
Reply to  Adrian

I’m not politically correct. Donald Trump is a billionaire American nationalist, who admires authoritarians, calls for journalists to be shot at his rallies, wants to lock up his political opponents, undertook to overturn the result of the 2020 Presidential election and led a violent insurrection against democracy. So yes he is clearly far-right.

Adrian
Adrian
23 days ago
Reply to  Llyn

I see no problem with nationalism TBH; many of us Welsh bang on about it endlessly, there’s no faction more authoritarian than the ideological left (see non-crime hate incidents), please produce evidence for Trump calling for ‘journalists to be shot’, the Democrats have been trying for years to lock Trump up, Clinton in 2016 called Trump an illegitimate president, and Trump was found not to have caused a violent insurrection on Jan 6th. You really need to calm down…think of your blood pressure, and maybe educate yourself on the history of right-wing dictatorship. Maybe then you can make a more… Read more »

Jeff
Jeff
23 days ago
Reply to  Adrian

To say trump was not found to have been involved in Jan 6 is incorrect. There is plenty of evidence he did, the problem is the courts (people like Thomas, likes his expensive holidays paid for) that are playing for time messing with Jack Smith who returned after a trump appointed judge messed the case up. If he failed this election, he faced a conviction, almost dead cert. Jack Smith returned with the evidence re arranged to remove what Canon thought was an issue and court released documents and senate inquiry basically show trump calling for the riot and letting… Read more »

Last edited 23 days ago by Jeff
Dai Ponty
Dai Ponty
24 days ago

Not Just Wales the whole bloody planet

Adrian
Adrian
24 days ago
Reply to  Dai Ponty

Do calm down. There are only three USA presidents who didn’t escalate an existing conflict or start a new one: Trump is one of them.

Jeff
Jeff
24 days ago
Reply to  Adrian

Yeah, cos putin will ask and trump will deliver. No need for war when you own your enemies president.

Rob
Rob
23 days ago
Reply to  Adrian

He withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Deal and then nearly started a war with them and then nearly started a war with them when he assassinated one of their generals. He moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem provoking tensions in Israel. At least Biden had the decency to withdraw from Afghanistan

Geraint
Geraint
23 days ago
Reply to  Rob

I think you will find the US Taliban deal signed in Doha took place during the last part of Trump’s first presidency. The main focus of the deal was to get US troops home to influence the presidential elections. The time scale was chaotic and led to the collapse of the Afghan government with the Boden presidency getting the blame.

S Duggan
S Duggan
24 days ago

I agree dropping living standards and higher inequality means the far right will, already has risen. Danger for us all. As much as I want independence it will never ever happen if Reform have a large presence in the Senedd. They must be destroyed first by a progressive stand against them. The threat is real, Labour, Plaid, the Lib Dems and the Greens must work together more to eliminate this threat.

Martyn Vaughan
Martyn Vaughan
24 days ago

The main reason for the collapse of “Politics As Usual” is the failure to halt illegal immigration. It is not racist to believe every nation has the right and duty to control its borders.

Rob
Rob
23 days ago
Reply to  Martyn Vaughan

I’m not implying that opposition to immigration is necessarily racism, however the United States is an immigrant nation, unlike the UK. Everyone apart from the native Indians is descended from immigrants. The state for Nevada for example has an area twice the size of the UK, yet its population is equal to Wales. Instead of hero-worshiping Trump, those who have concerns about immigration in the UK should call on the US and Australia to take in its fair share.

Jonathan Edwards
Jonathan Edwards
24 days ago

Dear Namesake, I completely agree with you. Wales’ problem is that we have not developed the centre ground in politics. One reason is that Plaid did not work out a credible practical plan with wide support to get more devolution and then Indy. Seems YesCymru might take on this job now. Good. The centre ground in Wales ought to include Plaidies like you, moderates from Tories and Labour in Wales, and something to represent all those who don’t vote. Yelling ‘populist/far/right’ obscures this common-sense need in Wales. And lets in Reform, who are English not Welsh. I have been following… Read more »

Sean Thompson
Sean Thompson
24 days ago

You say you completely agrees with your namesake but then say that “Wales’s problem is that we have not developed the centre ground in politics.” Did you not read the sentences “Politics has moved from the art of triangulation and compromise to motivating your base” and “The political left has long forgotten about its primary purpose: economic justice”? It seems to me that the problem is exactly that the professional politicians, party managers, journalists and commentariat from all the mainstream parties have sought to occupy a ‘middle ground’ that has, as the Labour Party moved away from a commitment to… Read more »

Jonathan Edwards
Jonathan Edwards
24 days ago
Reply to  Sean Thompson

Justice, equality and peace? Yep.
Do away with triangulation? Yep, its intellectually vacuous.
I’m suggesting Wales should devise a plan which doesn’t exist at the moment, but which could do something effective in the middle ground and mobilise non-voters. And get us Indy I think I’m agreeing with Jonny Eds.

Now Then
Now Then
24 days ago

Great article, and yes it’s time to panic. Even in Welsh speaking heartlands I’ve already heard people discussing Reform as though they are the answer to their problems and I even heard someone questioning the point of the Senedd. Plaid are in for a tough fight if they want to increase their support outside of their stronghold. The rise of Reform is purely down to Labour and the Conservatives and it seems only they can fix it. If Trump makes major mistakes in the next two years then possibly things might turn out differently. It could be that the fate of… Read more »

Llyn
Llyn
24 days ago
Reply to  Now Then

Outside the Plaid strongholds “The rise of Reform is purely down to Labour and the Conservatives and it seems only they can fix”. I disagree, why is the party of Wales unable to do anything here? If it can’t then what’s the point of Plaid?

Jonathan Edwards
Jonathan Edwards
24 days ago
Reply to  Now Then

Farage may think he’s tied to Trump, but I wonder. Its true, Trump does say nice things about Farage/Brexit/UK Trade Deal. But Trump has not thought this through because he’s too busy with fighting lawfare, and sorting China and Russia to get the detail right on the UK. The realities are likely to be 1.UK Trade Deal – try selling Welsh lamb in the US? Americans will block this and other items. We have proper food. Americans don’t, until RFK cleans up American food. No deal. 2.Its all very well asserting UK independence, and Trump liking this. But America needs… Read more »

Padi Phillips
Padi Phillips
23 days ago

Trump will fail, as there is nothing to stop him this time. He’ll take down a lot as he destroys the USA. RFKJr is unlikely to clean up the US food industry, as it’s far to entrenched and in any case has a massive lobby and has probably funded Trump massively, and has ‘bought’ more than a few MAGA politians. Best thing the UK can do is rejoin the EU as soon as possible. It’s also high time that Europe distanced itself somewhat from the USA which is increasingly an unreliable liability which in any case has regarded Europe as… Read more »

Llew Gruffudd.
Llew Gruffudd.
23 days ago

Nice piece. I view it from the perspective that Wales should be fearful, not of the success of the right, but the failure of the left. The right is filling a void. Wales is a nation suffering deprivation. A health and social care system in crisis, education standards below it’s neighbours, local services contracting at pace, affordable housing shortage, almost 200000 Welsh children in poverty and food banks commonplace. In response to this Wales main political parties, more of the same. Welsh Labour a lost cause. They have spent the last 25 years digging themselves into a hole they can’t… Read more »

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