Two decades of poor PISA results – and the same old responses
Brenig Davies
PISA is an international assessment programme designed to show how well education systems are preparing 15-year-olds for life after school.
It is not an assessment of the quality of schools and teaching. Critically, neither is it an assessment of individual pupils’ achievement. It is a scheme to rank education systems in 91 countries. It is administered every three years.
In the UK, the four countries are assessed and reported on separately. In this article Wales’ results are compared with those of England.
Wales first took part in PISA in 2006, seven years after devolution. The timeline below records the first response of the respective Welsh education minister to each PISA cycle.
The 2025 assessment results were published on 8 September 2026. The scores reveal Welsh 15-year-olds doing less well than those in the rest of the UK.
What ministers said
2006 — Jane Davidson
“Disappointing”
Results were disappointing; Wales had made progress, but improvement was uneven and needed to go further.
2009 — Leighton Andrews
“Extremely disappointing” — a “wake-up call to a complacent system”
He called for a major improvement in standards.
2012 — Huw Lewis
“Not good enough”
He said standards needed to improve, while stressing that systemic reform would take time.
2015 — Kirsty Williams
“We are not where we want to be”
She described the results as deeply disappointing but said Wales should stay the course with reform.
2018 — Kirsty Williams
“Positive, but not perfect”
She pointed to improvement in all three areas while acknowledging that more remained to be done.
2022 — Jeremy Miles
“Disappointing”
He said the pandemic had derailed previous improvement and called for renewed focus on reading, mathematics and science.
2025 — Anna Brychan
“These results are not where we want them to be”
She said they reinforced the need to improve reading and maths, while stressing there would be no knee-jerk response.
However, this article is not about the PISA scores. It is about the politicians’ initial public remarks about the scores.
But first, a summary of the 2025 context.
The 2025 results
The 2025 PISA assessment involved 3,406 Welsh 15-year-olds from 113 schools across Wales. Science was broadly stable, with Wales recording an average score of 476, not significantly different from 473 in 2022. Reading, at 459, was also not significantly different from the 466 recorded in 2022. Maths, however, dropped from 466 in 2022 to 456 in 2025.
Pertinent to this article, the Welsh Government’s first response to the results was to say that the scores reinforced the need to raise standards, particularly in reading and maths, while avoiding a knee-jerk response.
Education ministers’ first remarks through key words:
2006 — disappointing → 2009 — wake-up call → 2012 — not good enough → 2015 — not where we want to be → 2018 — positive, but not perfect → 2022 — disappointing again → 2025 — not where we want them to be.
Of particular note is that the remark “not where we want to be” was made in 2015 and again in 2025, while “disappointing” was used in 2006 and 2022.
Wales and England: PISA scores, 2006–2025
The tables below compare the mean PISA scores for Wales and England. The final column shows the difference between the two, with a negative figure indicating that Wales scored lower.
So, in summary: the gap with England in 2006 was -11 for maths, -15 for reading and -11 for science. Two decades later, the gap had widened considerably: maths -36, reading -38 and science -40.
England is in the PISA international top ten in all three subjects. Wales is the lowest of the four UK nations in all three subjects.
Of the participating countries, Wales is below the average in maths and science, while its reading score is close to average. The ranked positions among the 91 countries are: maths 35th, science 32nd and reading 27th.
What is more lamentable than the poor scores are each education minister’s hapless remarks, reflecting an absolute failure to address the fundamental reasons why scores have not improved over 20 years and, consequently, to implement a well-resourced action plan that is thoroughly monitored, with accessible, regular progress reports shared with all who have a vested interest in being informed of progress.
Brenig Davies worked in further education in Wales for more than thirty years, including senior leadership roles in the sector.
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Thank you for this. To be honest, I cannot understand why any ex education minister is employed in any way. To fail so completely at something that is so important to society, let alone the children themselves, is little short of criminal. “Funding! Poverty!” they will all wail. But, let’s face it, it is terrible teaching, terrible administration and terrible government. The only highlight is Jeremy Miles is involved in there – the gift that just keeps on giving.
How many English pupils did the PISA tests? Which schools? Do the stats stack up? I’m not sure they do: https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2026/09/08/bbc-scotlands-educational-f-grade/ Further, what impact Wales’ comparatively higher poverty rate? Poverty is by far the biggest factor in educational underperformance. Welsh govt gets clobbered with PISA every time … but what economic and fiscal levers does it have to tackle the poverty that blights the prospects of our young people. In fact, this PISA bludgeon reveals the complicity of UK Govt in creating the conditions that drive down prospects for young Welsh people. Simply pointing the finger at Welsh Govt is… Read more »
People clearly don’t like facts but rather stick to narratives that suit them. Just for you downvoters to know, I work at the chalkface so to speak. I actually know what I’m talking about.
Here is a fact for you. The IFS found that Welsh PISA scores cannot be explained by poverty. Disadvantaged pupils in England scored on average 30 points higher than their Welsh counterparts. Yours is yet another excuse or attempt to divert from what is a national disgrace.
Welsh Pisa scores are similar to France so there’s no fundamental problem. What’s more likely to be happening is other UK nations are gaming the system by allowing failing schools to opt out, and spending much more time practicing for the tests. That doesn’t mean there isn’t genuine room for improvement. And perhaps Wales should be doing the same things to artificially improve Pisa ranking next time.
England is disproportionately represented by its highest performing schools. Its stats are skewed. China does exactly the same. It’s so tiresome having to go over this over and over again with people who can’t be bothered to do the data analysis but are happy to bang on about headline figures when it suits their narrative.. You know all those high performing Nordic educational systems. Compare us against those. I dare you.
No. They are doing very well and we are not. This is a crisis. Even the schools in their most deprived areas hit the Welsh average. You are defending the indefensible.
You are simply making excuses for a system you are part of by the sound of it.
The IFS. Oh yes, that famously non-partisan think tank. Facts my backside. 😂😂😂
Why is the Institute of Fiscal Studies, an infallible oracle?
It’s not infallible; but it’s research is usually robust.
Sadly, even when it comes to poverty, the other UK nations are doing better in PISA.
What do you expect Brenig Davies ? The entire education examination and testing system in Wales is geared towards testing knowledge and skills, not developing thinking, reasoning individuals who apply their skills and capabilities to the real world. We test at 5,7,11,14,16,17 and 18. – FAR too often. Our system’s major aim is to find out what people remember of what they’ve been taught, not how to apply their knowledge and skills to a real situation. I don’t blame teachers; they know they will be judged on how many they can get through the sauaage machine. PISA measures how students… Read more »
That testing appears to be weird, are you … in England? As far as I understand it, there are personal assessments for reading and numeracy for students between the age of 6 and 14. They’re online, adaptive, and basically to tell the teacher who to focus on rather than anything else. There are no sats. So the next is GCSEs at the ages of 14-16 depending on attainment. AS levels at 16-17 A levels at 17-18 In Wales the education system DOES follow the system that you’re asking for, it focuses far more on skills and capabilities than teaching specific… Read more »
In terms of addressing the failure of Welsh schools, and instigating urgent repair work, a good start would be to subject them to an inspectorate that – unlike Estyn – is entirely separate from the Welsh governmental system. Anyone heard of Ofsted? Judging by scores across the border, Ofsted is doing a pretty decent job in holding English schools to account and promoting improvement where necessary. So if we want to emulate England’s progress, why not look into utilising its Ofsted inspectors and then acting on their prescriptions? For both Senedd and Westminster, the stifled progress of Welsh youngsters –… Read more »
well they’ll never do it – but the two people who made the biggest difference in England were Michael gove and Dominic Cummings! Special advisers to the plaid minority government?!
Uh… no, no it really isn’t. Ofsted are frankly terrible at their jobs and practically anyone involved with them, would never commission them for auditing and accountability reasons. England’s performance is in spite of Ofsted rather than because of it. At best Ofsted offer a minimum floor and that floor is effectively child safety. Education levels are not a priority.
Brenig, as always excellent, thank you. People have tried exceptionally hard to get this better for decades. Many have tried in Wales but never achieved substantive change, just tinkering with policies, curricular and targets. Consequently the consistently high standards of mediocrity in Wales have continued and will continue to do so in the real world. Quality also costs money that will never be found or spent. Alwyn Evans is spot on. The UK education system (not including public schooling for ‘leaders’ in the UK) is purely for ‘economic development’, based spuriously on those than can do one methodology and discarding… Read more »
Plaid must show real progress in education and health!
I think to disappointing aspect is how little ideas there are to change the state of affairs. The plaid minister interview was a shocker. Senior opinions seem so entrenched in a particular mindset, and so unwilling to realise they’ve messed up.
Unfortunately you are spot on.
It wasn’t Plaid who messed up of course, but it’s certainly depressing that they don’t convince that they can break out and change the state of affairs.
What a pity. This site has also been flooded by reactionary right wing retired pale, stale males. Same old, same old 🥱
No. Just concerned parents, grandparents etc. Welsh education was once world leading. If you are a teacher then it explains much.
Sure… in the 18th century.
Racist, ageist, sexist. What a teacher…
From my understanding, Wales took the decision in good faith based on the evidence available to switch to the more radical system. Unfortunately, it has not met the expectations that it had promised. Perhaps, not all teachers are created equally. Bringing back a bit more structure would undoubtedly be helpful. Though give a bit more latitude to the high performing teachers. Couple of things to do Rebalance the curriculum to Specific Knowledge, and away from general skills based. Not all the way, just… further than we are know because it’s an evidenced weakness. Pause and properly assess the GCSE reforms… Read more »