Venezuela at the crossroads: Hope, risk, opportunity and a lesson for Wales

Simon Hobson 

When I lived and worked in Colombia, 2015 to 2019, as a mining engineer and entrepreneur in the medical cannabis sector, a high number of company leaders were Venezuelan. They had been driven from their country by economic collapse, political repression, and the failure of the Chavista project that once promised prosperity.

Over three million Venezuelans have crossed into Colombia in search of safety and opportunity. They were escaping the worst excesses of a regime that hollowed out what was once South America’s leading economy. This crisis was not accidental. It was the result of decades of mismanagement, corruption, and ideological rigidity.

Today, as Venezuela’s political direction appears to be shifting, a question arises. What opportunities might lie ahead, both for Venezuelans and for sectors such as mining and energy, where I have spent much of my career?

A fractured sector with unrivalled potential

Venezuela’s natural resource base remains extraordinary. The country holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, estimated at more than 300 billion barrels. This exceeds even Saudi Arabia. Yet production, once above 3.5 million barrels per day, has collapsed to around one million or less. Chronic underinvestment, sanctions, and the decay of the national oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), are largely responsible.

Restoring even part of this lost capacity would be transformative for the Venezuelan economy and its public finances. In the medium term, with the right reforms and foreign investment, output could rise further. Recovery, however, is not automatic. It will require large-scale capital investment, legal clarity, and credible institutions to attract global energy companies.

Natural gas presents similar opportunities. Venezuela holds around 200 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves. These could become a major export engine, particularly to nearby markets such as Colombia and Trinidad & Tobago. Infrastructure, however, has been neglected. Regional reintegration will require regulation backed by democratic governance and political stability.

Venezuela’s mining sector also holds significant value. It has long been neglected and is often controlled by criminal networks. The Orinoco Mining Arc alone covers more than 12 per cent of the country. It is believed to contain vast deposits of gold, bauxite, coltan, and other minerals essential to modern supply chains.

Potential, however, is not destiny. Mining faces deep structural problems. Infrastructure is degraded. Property rights are weak. Environmental damage is severe. Illegal operations have displaced communities and destroyed trust, as well as large areas of the physical landscape. These challenges must be confronted directly if legitimate investment is to return.

There are lessons nearby. Guyana, for example, has managed recent oil and mineral discoveries broadly in line with the Santiago Principles. It has also prioritised protection of its share of the Amazon rainforest. By contrast, the Venezuelan Amazon has received almost no meaningful protection under the Chavista regime.

US involvement and a shifting geopolitical landscape

The recent removal of Nicolás Maduro from power is a seismic, if controversial, moment. It will shape Venezuela’s future and that of the wider region. In Colombia, the current president, who is openly hostile to President Trump, now faces an uncertain electoral future ahead of the 2026 polls. Meanwhile, without Venezuelan oil, the long-term viability of Cuba’s Communist regime also comes into question.

Global interest in Venezuela’s resources has already begun to shift. Wall Street banks and international energy firms are positioning themselves for a long and complex recovery. They see opportunities not only in oil production, but also in rebuilding infrastructure and supply chains.

This realignment carries serious risks. Proposals from the US administration to control Venezuelan oil sales indefinitely, and to manage the proceeds, raise fundamental questions about sovereignty and governance; something of which Wales has firsthand experience. A post-Maduro future dominated by external interests could repeat familiar mistakes. It risks recreating the very conditions that enabled the rise of Hugo Chávez in the first place.

History offers clear warnings. External intervention in Latin America has rarely delivered lasting stability or prosperity. The Monroe Doctrine era, which President Trump wishes to emulate, provides many such examples. Any successful recovery must be rooted in Venezuelan agency and legitimacy, not solely in financial calculation.

For Venezuela and for Wales

What, then, might a constructive economic future look like? The recovery of Venezuelan democracy, and its ability to once again benefit from selling its mineral wealth into global markets, also raises a question closer to home. Are there lessons here for Wales, as its next government seeks to build prosperity within a system designed by Westminster to limit Welsh economic power? I believe there are and, they deserve serious attention.

First, legal and institutional reform. Clear property rights, transparent licensing, and independent regulation will be essential to attract long-term capital to energy and mining.

Second, inclusive development. Venezuela’s resources could create jobs, fund education and healthcare, and rebuild infrastructure. This will only happen if the benefits are not captured by a narrow elite, whether domestic or foreign. Neighbouring Guyana is placing its newfound mineral back wealth into a sovereign fund.

Third, regional integration. Colombia, as a neighbour with deep links to Venezuelan talent and diaspora communities, stands to gain from renewed trade and energy cooperation. This could boost Venezuelan GDP, create jobs, and strengthen regional stability.

For global markets, a revitalised Venezuela could help diversify energy and mineral supply chains. This matters at a time of geopolitical volatility and need for accelerating decarbonisation. Responsible development of gas and critical minerals could play a constructive role in that transition.

A test of will and values

The road ahead for Venezuela will be long and complex. It will also be risky. Yet, unlike the past decade, there is now a genuine possibility that the country’s human and natural wealth can serve broad-based prosperity rather than narrow political ends.

For those watching from markets, boardrooms, and diaspora communities, the task is not simply to profit from Venezuela’s recovery. It is to support a transition that reflects the hopes of the Venezuelan people themselves. That means a transition that is equitable, sustainable, and grounded in democratic renewal. These are also the conditions that underpin successful businesses and stable tax revenues. In the long run, they are the foundations of a legitimate and prosperous Venezuelan state.

If Venezuela can seize this opportunity, the benefits will extend far beyond its borders. They will be felt across Latin America, in global energy markets, and among the millions of Venezuelans whose resilience has already reshaped the economies of their neighbours.