Wales’ Brexit vote disaster and Welsh Labour’s culpability

Geraint Davies

Wales continues to suffer a decade after voting for Brexit and Welsh Labour must bear some responsibility for allowing voters to do so.

We face reduced trade with the EU – our biggest and closest market – which accounted for 60 per cent of Welsh exports. In addition Wales has forgone £billions in convergence funding provided for being one of the poorest countries in Europe.

The previous UK government failed to make up for the lost funding it promised Wales after Brexit. Now new Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s focus is northwards not westwards with no suggestion of making up Wales’ lost EU cash let alone a Number 10 for Swansea.

Most recently the EU has negotiated a cut in US tariffs from 15% to 10% applicable to all products. This gives the EU an export advantage over the UK as the 10% deal Keir Starmer and Peter Mandelson negotiated excludes sectors such as clothing, chemicals and beverages. For example a Welsh wool jumper will be charged a 22.5% tariff vs 10% for an EU jumper. Exceptionally Scottish Whisky has a zero tariff thanks to King Charles’ US visit,

The Brexit scam from Reform Leader Nigel Farage was always going to mean that the UK standing alone would have less negotiating power than as part of team EU. So now Wales is suffering less favourable trading terms with the US. That’s on top of the UK-Japan deal being worth only £1.1billion – £1.5bn less than had the UK still been part of the EU.

Trump’s earlier divide and rule tactic of giving Britain a good deal vs the EU was designed to try to fool people that Brexit could still have been a good idea whilst annoying the EU. The last thing Trump and Putin want is a stronger EU with the UK back in it. But Britain’s short-term advantage has just evaporated as Brussels leveraged better terms.

We all remember that Wales tragically voted for Brexit in 2016 but few pin any blame on Welsh Labour. They should because Welsh Labour didn’t mention the benefits of EU membership in any of its campaign literature prior to May 2016 – whether for trade, funding or the environment.

Their cunning plan was not to do so as it might put off anti-EU voters from voting Labour in that month’s Welsh Assembly election. So voters got leaflets saying Welsh Labour was good for our NHS, education, local government etc then others from UKIP saying the EU took our money – when in fact it gave us £billions – and took our sovereignty – whereas in Wales since Brexit much of the Senedd’s environmental policy has now been taken over by Westminster.

In short, voters were bombarded with anti-EU propaganda in the run up to the EU referendum in June, and Welsh Labour kept silent on Europe. It’s no surprise Wales narrowly voted against its own interests for Brexit whereas in Scotland and Northern Ireland – who also received EU funding but voters knew about it – they voted to remain. In Wales the strategy helped the election of Wales’ first UKIP Senedd members giving Leave further public profile in the final run-up to the June 2026 Brexit vote. Even then Welsh Labour campaigning was lacklustre.

The point here is that there is a prevalent “you’ve only yourselves to blame” attitude to Wales for voting to leave the EU.

Facts

As Keynes famously said “when the facts change I change my mind” and in Wales’ case people weren’t given the facts by the then dominant party in the first place.

Two weeks after the Brexit vote I presented a bill (the EU Terms Of Withdrawal Referendum Bill.[66][67] ) to require a public vote on the EU Exit Deal that later became the People’s Vote Campaign.

In 2016 a two per cent UK swing from Leave to Remain would have changed the result.

Wales has five percent of the UK population so it’s mathematically possible that if enough of the half who voted Leave voted Remain instead – because they knew the facts – then Britain wouldn’t have Brexited at all.

Minimally, three of four UK nations voting Remain would have affected the post-Referendum politics. In Wales people do now know the facts and ten years on 69% with a preference actually support rejoining the EU.

Scam

Nevertheless, given the facts, many people are still supporting Reform whose leader Nigel Farage was the architect of the Brexit scam. You couldn’t make it up but Nigel Farage still does.

Perhaps in the Clacton byelection the penny will drop as voters put their faith in Count BinFace to bring some comedy to the Brexit tragedy.

Meanwhile, let’s hope Parliament will belatedly acknowledge that the EU is best for Britain’s security, economy and fundamental values and has the courage to navigate a return to our natural home.

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