Wales faces a choice of two futures
Jonathan Edwards
Last week’s YouGov opinion poll was seismic on many fronts, but most importantly it indicates that our country is now split right down the middle on the axis of the national question and on the left – right paradigm.
Voters are increasingly coalescing between Plaid Cymru on the one hand and Reform on the other.
Both Labour and the Conservatives, the two most successful parties in Welsh political history, now find themselves languishing in third and fourth, increasingly an irrelevance with a combined vote share of only 25%.
This polarisation is of greater significance as we face a national election in a matter of months which is likely to change Welsh politics as we know it.
More immediately the people of Caerphilly will vote next month in a by-election which looks increasingly as if it will resemble the role of water in the hydration process in cement making, where a moldable liquid transforms to a rigid, solid state.
Transformational moment
As successive polls have indicated, we are at a transformational moment in Welsh politics but there hasn’t been a formal election yet to set the new political landscape.
After the by-election nothing in Welsh politics will ever be the same again, if as expected the Labour party finish a poor third to Plaid Cymru and Reform.
The by-election will also provide the victors with momentum going into 2026.
It is a genuinely huge moment in Welsh political history as the main challengers are vying for ownership of the all-important change narrative in Welsh politics.
Once the votes are counted in Caerphilly on the morning of October 24, the Senedd 2026 election will be hurtling towards us. Whoever wins Caerphilly is going to receive a terrific boost, especially considering the constituency is a valleys seat.
Plaid Cymru and Reform are diametrically opposed both on the national question and on the left-right axis and it is no wonder therefore that as Labour and Tory support collapses voters are polarising to the extremes.
Social media debate
In such a context the energy in Welsh politics will concentrate around both poles as we are witnessing in the social media debate.
What was interesting about the YouGov poll but not surprising was the generational divide that now exists in voting intention.
In the 16-24 age group Plaid are polling at 58% compared to only 7% for Reform. In the 65 plus age group, Reform lead Plaid by 38% to 16%.
Plaid Cymru’s immediate election hopes will very much depend on being able to motivate a cohort of voters who are less likely to cast their ballots.
The future of our country hangs in the balance as we speed towards next May but not because it will determine who will form the government. The polls if replicated leave a Plaid – Labour coalition as the only viable option, if Labour play ball.
If Labour don’t, and I am sure there will be many in the party arguing that party comes before country, then all bets are off.
A defining battle
The Senedd election and next month’s by-election however represent only the beginning of a defining battle in our political history as a nation. If Reform win and are shut out from power, opponents of devolution will seek to question its legitimacy. I sense considerable complacency amongst some in the ‘bubble’ about such a scenario.
Those worried about the future of Welsh democracy should be looking at the next UK general election due by 2029 at the latest with increasing anxiety.
The same YouGov poll for a Westminster election puts Reform well ahead in Wales on 29% followed by Plaid Cymru on 23%. A Plaid-led Welsh Government is likely to see a collapse in support if it can’t transform the state of Welsh public services and boost living standards.
How it can achieve that without the fiscal levers to turn around the Welsh economy while being completely reliant on Labour votes to progress its domestic agenda is anyone’s guess. The general election in 2029 could be very difficult for Plaid Cymru to say the least.
More importantly, the latest assessment by Electoral Calculus estimates that Mr Farage is heading to 10 Downing Street with a majority of 86. He would have carte blanche to do as he wishes.
When challenged by Robert Peston at the recent Reform conference on what a Reform UK government would look like he pointed at the experience of Argentina under its maverick President, Javier Milei.
Central to the Milei plan in addition to devaluing the currency has been drastically reducing the size of the state via a process of de-bureaucratisation, slashing public expenditure and cutting government departments by half.
Target
I don’t think it takes a genius to work out that the Senedd will be an obvious target for Farage’s chainsaw if backed up by a stolen election narrative from next May, be it complete abolition or a serious curtailing of its powers.
To secure enough combined seats next May to form an administration is not enough for those that value the existence of devolved government. The current polls place the burden of responsibility on Plaid Cymru to win the election to provide legitimacy for the Senedd and make it more difficult for a Farage- led UK Government to undermine our democracy.
The two diametrically opposed futures that face Wales are getting clearer by the day and the stakes have never been higher.
Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24
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I hope PC really get their campaign moving. What happened here in Trowbridge and St Mellons was a catastrophe.
Whose fault is it ? Labour for ignoring the population , or Plaid Cymru for keeping them afloat over the decades ,
or me as I would never vote for Reform.
Good article; but I don’t see a Plaid/Labour coalition as the “only viable option” – quite the opposite actually. If Plaid do that, it will be like wearing concrete socks. They will sink without trace. Far better, in my opinion, to be brave and go as a minority administration. Let’s then find out whether what’s left of Welsh Labour will put party before country by voting with Reform.
I genuinely think next year’s Senedd election is impossible to predict. Many more members, new constituencies, new voting system. Most importantly, all the old certainties are out of the window. If Reform are the largest party it would be completely undemocratic and simply not right for Plaid and Labour to do a deal to keep them out of power – much better to let Reform form a minority government and vote them down at every opportunity – they’ll fall apart in 3 months. If Plaid are the largest party they should also form a minority government. If they do a… Read more »
Why would it be undemocratic? Unless Reform win over 50% of the vote then they have no mandate to govern alone. If Plaid + Labour equals over 50% and share common ground on a lot of matters then that would be a mandate. There is a reason why first past the post should be scrapped.
I agree that it wouldn’t be undemocratic for Plaid and Labour to combine. Problem is that this combination (nor Reform/Tory) is probably not going to get 50% + one vote based on the polls, so there is very likely to be a government with minority support. I foresee near institutional paralysis unfortunately. We will rue the day that the closed list system was introduced.
Apart from the early years of devolution (when the lib dems polled high), and if the new system had been in place, there would never have been an alternative to a Plaid-Labour coalition.If anything, Wales senedd elections desperately needed a greater FPTP-type weighting. As it stands, we are confound to a Plaid-labour governments for the foreseeable future.
A lot of people don’t understand parliamentary maths, so they don’t understand why the largest party can’t always form a government. The people need to be shown, not told.
What’s always been undemocratic and simply not right is a government that the majority don’t want. Only preference voting can fix that.
It’s still relatively early days and all to fight for. A lot can happen between now and May, including Farage getting bogged down by his own actions and inactions. Not declaring his finances correctly and not denouncing Trump’s false paracetamol claims, for example. Farage is creating a really big bubble to burst – and just like with Johnson it will go with a big bang one day.
Not to mention their proposal to scrap Indefinite leave to Remain which is utterly absurd.
I have to disagree. It’s not early days, more like too late already for Welsh Labour. Plaid need to be more visible quickly as well or Reform may take Caerphilly. Most don’t care about Farage’s bank account or paracetamol. But you are right that Reform will go pop one day, only not by next May in all probability.
Quote: “The same YouGov poll for a Westminster election puts Reform well ahead in Wales on 29% followed by Plaid Cymru on 23%. A Plaid-led Welsh Government is likely to see a collapse in support if it can’t transform the state of Welsh public services and boost living standards.” On the other hand, if Westminster continues to refuse devolving significant new powers, a Plaid-led government could successfully reposition itself as the defender of Wales, pointing out that it is London, not Cardiff Bay, that holds back Welsh prosperity. In that case, any economic weakness would be seen less as a… Read more »
A Reform government after 2029 could simply abolish the Senedd. No referendum required. “Parliament is sovereign” and all that. That’s the problem with devolving power (“power devolved is power retained”) rather than starting from independence and pooling functions with others as required
Agreed, but it would risk a major backlash if they did. Not just in Wales, but also in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where it would be seen as an attack on democracy itself. It would also set a precedent that a future government could rejoin the EU without a referendum, which is the last thing Reform would want.
From the Cambridge Dictionary. “If two or more things coalesce, they come or grow together to form one thing or system.”
From this article: “Voters are increasingly coalescing between Plaid Cymru on the one hand and Reform on the other.”
?
The rest of the article says it’s about polarisation. Exactly.
Don’t know why my machine has gone in for fancy formatting. Can’t get it to take it away.