Wales nearly had a Tory-Plaid-Lib Dem Government. Here’s why that still matters

Owen Williams

Most people assume Labour is the natural party of government in Wales. But in 2007, for a brief, intense window, Wales stood on the brink of something radically different: a “Rainbow Coalition” that would have installed Plaid Cymru’s Ieuan Wyn Jones as First Minister, backed by the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

It didn’t happen. But the fact that it almost did still tells us a great deal about the flexibility of Welsh politics, the design of the Senedd, and the potential for cross-ideological cooperation in a proportional system.

In the context of renewed debates about coalition, consensus, and the role of Plaid Cymru in government, it’s worth revisiting.

Stalemate

The 2007 Senedd election ended in stalemate. Labour won 26 of the 60 seats – not enough to govern alone. Plaid Cymru secured 15, the Conservatives 12, the Liberal Democrats 6, and one independent.

Suddenly, a range of options were on the table. And for a few extraordinary weeks, it looked like Plaid, the Tories, and the Lib Dems might come together to form a government.

The maths worked. A draft programme for government was taking shape. For the first time in the history of Welsh devolution, Labour looked like it might be ousted from power.

The proposed arrangement was radical not just in its composition but in its symbolism: Ieuan Wyn Jones, Plaid Cymru leader at the time, would have become First Minister.

That alone would have been a political earthquake – placing a nationalist leader at the helm of a multi-party, semi-unionist government, thereby signalling a dramatic shift in the political identity of Wales. As The Guardian reported at the time, the parties had “agreed to agree” on a programme covering sustainable development, education and further devolution.

Fragile

But it was a fragile consensus, and not everyone was on board. Ultimately, the Rainbow Coalition collapsed under pressure. The Liberal Democrats – internally divided and wary of the optics of governing with the Conservatives – pulled back. Senior figures, including then-leader Mike German, faced resistance from members uneasy about formal ties with the Tories.

As The Guardian noted in May 2007, the party’s national executive voted against entering the coalition, effectively sinking the deal. Labour quickly regrouped.

Within weeks, a “One Wales” agreement was signed between Labour and Plaid instead. Rhodri Morgan stayed on as First Minister, and the idea of a cross-party anti-Labour coalition faded into the background. But it very nearly happened.

Had the Rainbow Coalition taken power, Wales might look very different today. Plaid would have entered government not as a junior partner to Labour, but as the leading force in a broad, ideologically diverse coalition.

That could have reshaped the party’s identity and public perception. It also would have opened the door to deeper discussions on constitutional reform, the devolution of justice, and perhaps even a differently framed independence debate. With Ieuan Wyn Jones at the helm and a cross-party cabinet behind him, Plaid would have had to lead from the centre outward – balancing national ambition with coalition pragmatism.

Tensions

Policy would inevitably have reflected the tensions of the alliance. But it would also have shown the Senedd operating at full maturity – forging government not through tribal loyalty but through negotiation and compromise.

This isn’t just an interesting historical footnote. The Rainbow Coalition moment is a vital reminder that coalition and cooperation are built into the architecture of Welsh democracy.

The Senedd’s proportional representation system means no party can assume permanent power. And just as Plaid has worked with Labour, it has also explored partnerships that would raise eyebrows in Westminster.

As Ieuan Wyn Jones later reflected in his interview with the Institute for Government, the talks were a serious attempt to form an alternative government – a rare moment of shared ambition between very different parties.

The lesson, he said, was that political courage is often undermined by party self-interest. The idea that Plaid and Labour are natural allies is far too simplistic.

Yes, they share a number of cultural and linguistic priorities – but they diverge sharply on economic strategy, constitutional ambition, and their long-term vision for Wales. The Rainbow talks of 2007 remind us that politics in a PR system doesn’t follow straight lines.

Alliances

Alliances are contingent, not permanent. In the current climate, where any cooperation between Labour and Plaid is painted by right-wing voices as an undemocratic stitch-up, the Rainbow Coalition episode provides essential context. It cuts through the caricature of Plaid as Labour’s junior partner.

It shows that Plaid’s leadership has, in the past, considered coalitions with parties on the right when the policy ground was viable. It also reminds us that proportional systems produce dynamic, sometimes surprising, political outcomes. That’s not chaos – it’s democracy. And had the Rainbow Coalition succeeded, we might be living in a political culture where cross-party government is seen as standard, not suspicious.

In 2007, Wales nearly did something bold. It didn’t happen. But the possibility was real. And that alone tells us something crucial: in a system designed for cooperation, no political alliance is inevitable. And no outcome is off the table.