We are sleepwalking to independence
Rob Hughes
It has been a long time coming.
Whilst following the result in Caerffili there were obviously some key take aways. Labour vote collapsing, Reform, walking into their Coronation as the new party of Wales, but leaving visibly shaken and the Conservatives along with the Lib Dems losing their deposits and then some. And Plaid Cymru, pronounced in a variety of ways, winning.
Yet, somehow, the London press and commentators missed potentially the biggest story of the night. It’s not surprising they did, such is their complete ambivalence to Wales, failing to grasp the reasoning behind the result and not even sure what Welsh parties stand for.
But miss it they did. So here is a quick attempt to rebalance the narrative.
I’m from a Welsh family but was brought up in Reading. So, I always felt like a Cymro Oddi Cartref (a Welshman away from home), and moved to Wales at another critical time in 1997. On moving to Wales permanently, I was shocked by how few people in Wales backed independence.
The devolution vote in 1997 was far closer than my untrained eye expected it to be and the game looked lost until the winner from Carmarthenshire deep into added time.
Scorned Wales
I had come from an area that scorned Wales, that looked to exploit it at any time. I remember during times of water shortages, rather than looking at how the south-east of England might solve its water shortages with local infrastructure, conversations commonly included phrases like ‘can’t we just drown another village no-one can pronounce to build a reservoir in Wales’.
An interesting observation that I have had since then is that lots of those who believe in Welsh independence, have spent some time in England, either living there, working there or going to university there. Maybe we could make it a thing.
So, in the Merthyr Valleys, I was a bit of an oddity. Not because I was, in their eyes an Englishman who supported independence, just because I supported independence at all. It was polling about 3 to 5% at the time and genuinely looked as unachievable as living on Jupiter.
The shift towards supporting independence has been credited to key events and an awakening in national awareness. The Scottish referendum in 2014 gave people in Wales a realistic fear that Scotland may go, and we started to question ‘what is Wales?’ on a national level.
Euro 2016
The formation of YesCymru is a direct result of that time. Euro 2016 brought us together as a nation, no North and South, no Welsh-speaking / non-Welsh speaking friction, but an urban and rural one nation united behind Bale. And Covid gave us an insight in how a Welsh Government could govern better. And for independence, making the leap forwards, means you don’t generally turn back. It has remained in the forefront since, with celebrities, politicians and a growing number of Welsh people, specifically younger people, supportive.
Which brings us back to the biggest story of the night in the Caerphilly by-election.
Since the growth of support in independence started in around 2016, Independence Supporting parties have won around a quarter of the vote, keeping pace with general support for independence (Support for independence, currently sits at around 40%), before stagnating. In 2016, it was 25.9%, 28.5% in 2021. In Westminster elections the story is similar but a little worse with 25.5% voting for pro-indy parties in 2024.
In Caerphilly, on the 23rd of October 2025, at least 49.3% of voters voted for indy supporting parties, Plaid Cymru, the Greens and Gwlad. If, in the aim of being mischievous, we add the oft quoted figure of half of Labour voters supporting indy, we get to around 55%. Now before the cries of “lending votes”, “Plaid doesn’t really believe in independence”, or “it was to keep Reform out” start, I want to give you a little scenario.
In Wales, if you don’t vote Reform, you don’t like Reform. Reform have a small target area for potential new supporters, their vote is what it is. Labour are going to struggle. There is every chance that Plaid Cymru will be the biggest party in the Senedd and form the Government in May. For Scotland, see Wales, probably with the SNP / Greens / Alba winning a higher share of the vote. With no election until 2027, Sinn Fein will be the largest party in Stormont.
Seismic change
If Reform win the General Election as expected, we will have the perfect recipe for fundamental and seismic change in the make up of the UK. A British nationalist Reform government in Westminster could well be too much to stomach, not only for the Scots to walk away, but for the Welsh too. Soft No voters will be far easier to convince if this plays out, and unlike Scotland we have no organised hard-core pro-Union networks to fight the Unionist corner.
So as the Tories quite rightly predicted, we are sleepwalking to independence. Except when we wake up, it’s not the nightmare they promised, it’s an achievable, realistic dream full of hope and potential.
We are quite possibly sitting on the cusp of independence, and no-one east of the border has any idea that it is happening. That is the biggest story from Caerphilly, the Welsh are on the move! We are oddities no more. Independence is normal.
Just don’t tell the London Media……..long live their ambivalence for Wales!
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I hope you are right!
Pretty accurate I reckon. The English media’s reporting of the Caerphilly by Election result was embarrassing.
How true, one week before the by election there was a two minute segment on Caerfflili on the BBC lunch time news immediately followed by a six minute segment on Green Turtles. Nothing against Green Turtles of course but absolutely highlights the ignorance & ambivalence towards Cymru. Remember also the astonishment & faux outrage when Mark Drakeford flexed his devolved muscle during the covid pandemic. You have to wonder though if staying under the radar works better for Cymru at times!
There may be “no organised hard-core pro-Union networks to fight the Unionist corner” right now but if the Welsh keep voting like they have in Caerphilly last week then you soon will have. If the Welsh like the Scots look like they might actually at some point in the near future have a majority that support Independence then the forces of Westminster will start their very own Project Fear in Wales. You will find that the BBC in particular but almost every “national” newspaper sold in Wales thinks Plaid Cymru are the work of the devil and you will be… Read more »
Daily reminder that Independence ALWAYS means hard choices and less to go around. It’s never the economic choice to make, economically we’re always better united… but as we’ve found out this quickly leads to exploitation. Independence is an emotional choice first and last. Somethings are worth more than money, being able to set your own rules about how your resources (no matter how small they are) should be spent, it’s about protecting your own culture and it’s about being able to make decisions without the interference of vested interests from abroad. We saw the effects of independence when the UK… Read more »
This isn’t true. Wales, Scotland and the northern English regions are all poorer than they would be on their own. This is necessary to make London richer than it could ever be without the rest of the UK to suck dry of talent and investment. But the solution to this is to rebalance the UK economy so every region and nation is punching above its weight. Those that fear a wealthier Wales within the UK would dull a desire for independence should look to Basque region which is one of the richest parts of Spain but still wants out. Those… Read more »
Wales has a much bigger proportion of people on benefits per capita, sick/disabled and older.
Just for clarity I’m pro Independence, even with the economic penalty. (Same reason I voted Brexit, I believe Wales should be Independent not subordinate to some other country).
Which is a consequence of UK union membership because many young people move to the UK capital to take advantage of the jobs and opportunities hoarded there. The result is a population in Wales that’s proportionally older.
Also allowing for the influx of English retirees.
Whenever Welsh Independence is mentioned it is arrogantly stated that we are far too poor to survive on our own and how England takes up the shortfall. Us Welsh people should be grateful for that kind of benevolence. The question I have is, If we cost England so much money as we cannot possibly support ourselves, why don’t they want us to go alone and take the step to independence. Fair question ❓
Tbf, as I pointed out, it doesn’t matter whether we’d be too poor or not. The question is: do we want to make these decisions for ourselves. If the answer to that question is yes, then we should be independent.
My comment is not about whether we would be too poor, it’s that the economic argument is moot either way.
‘Daily reminder that Independence ALWAYS means hard choices and less to go around.’
The history of the first fifty years of an independent Ireland certainly tend towards endorsing that thesis. And, over there, they had some advantages back in those days which we in Wales don’t have.
Even so, my impression is that the bulk of Irish citizens didn’t regret leaving the UK, and since the standard of living over there in the last few decades has on average been higher than it’s been here, it seems to have turned out OK in the end!
‘…..lots of those who believe in Welsh independence have spent some time in England’. I agree wholeheartedly. For me it was spending three years just over the border in Hereford, after I’d finished college and started my first job. You have to leave Wales to appreciate how some people look down their noses at us. We will always play second fiddle in the Union.
I have been criticised on these pages for describing the contempt and derision expressed by far too many english people (even educated ones) when discussing Cymru, despite that being my common experience while living over the border. I know that anecdote is not data, but if you need proof, just look at the way the english media either ignore us, or show little understanding of life, society and attitudes here. On a slightly less serious note (though not by much) I am having difficulty finding any You Tuber, who puts up footage of their holidays in Cymru, taking the time… Read more »
Wales has been on a gradual path toward independence since the 19th century. As has Ireland and Scotland. What began as the recognition of a distinct Welsh culture under direct rule evolved into administrative devolution in the 1960s and, later, full legislative and executive powers in the 1990s to today. The truth is that a highly centralised state governing four distinct nations does not work. Especially when one, England, accounts for roughly 85% of the population. The result has been chronic neglect of the smaller nations within the Union. If the United Kingdom were ever to remain permanently intact, it… Read more »
I think we are a long way from reaching independence. One swallow does not make a summer. Remember Adam Price was supposedly on his way to being the next FM before the last Senedd election? At the moment I would suggest we are far closer to a Reform UK Welsh Government than Welsh independence. Before the pile on I will be voting Plaid next year.
Come on Wales led by Plaid,we can gain our Independence,and we desperately need to,this from a 76 yr old desperately waiting for the moment,Welsh Independence asap.
I think people realise that if Wales needs to survive in any form, we have to break free from this abusive relationship.
Our natural resources are being plundered, we’re paying millions for a Royal family caught up in “alleged” sex offences, we’re fighting a constant media hate campaign from the Russian owned companies and handed the crumbs from the plate.
Independence isn’t just normal, it’s now as essential as oxygen.
Wouldn’t we do better to be fully conscious of all options with their costs, benefits and risks, rather than sleepwalking anywhere?
That information has been readily available for a long time (Google is your friend). I hope you are not expecting someone else to do your homework?
Wrong. I have read lots of stuff promoting the independence case that just skates over critical issues such as the border with England and its implications, blithely assuming away issues like free movement, single market, etc. The YesCymru ‘Independence in Your Pocket’ is a good (or bad) example.
Borders, the way you argue your case you’d think no other country had to deal with a border.
Of course every country has to deal with borders. That’s exactly my point. Those borders can be dealt with in a wide variety of ways from openness with free movement of people, goods, capital and services, though barbed wire, border guards and customs posts, to conflict and war. Just look around the world.
So tell me how an independent Wales would deal with its border with England. I’ve yet to see any answer to this that doesn’t evade or trivialise the issue.
Your point is that you don’t want Cymru to be a separate country from England.
It seems that you think your opinion is proven correct as the inevitable consequence of a border where two countries are adjacent is an unsurmountable problem in the case of England and Cymru.
Despite the hundreds of examples of boundaries of differing porosity, political entities, control, shared history, culture,overlap of language, family connections etc.
You keep demanding answers but refuse to acknowledge they already exist.
I don’t even know what you mean by ‘separation’. We will never be geographically separate, geology prevents that. So what do you mean by it? You accuse me of demanding answers. Yes I am, and the people of Wales will demand them too. You seem to think that any border between Wales and England must be a good thing. But just look around the world. Is every border a success for the people on both sides? They can be, but there is no guarantee. I want to be sure that ‘independence’ would work in the interests of our people. You… Read more »
‘I don’t even know what you mean by ‘separation’.’
I didn’t write ‘separation’.
If you w\ant to quote me at least be accurate.
Surely in this context you understand the phrase ‘a separate country from England’
A clue – it doesn’t involve constructing a water filled trench between the Afon Dyfrdwy and Afon Hafren.
You’re quite desperate to avoid the question, aren’t you? For Cymru to become ‘a separate country from England’ it will have to undergo a process of separation. But if you can’t handle the grammar, then explain what you mean by ‘a separate country’.
If you want to see how borders without barbed wire work, and how economic and cultural differences can be maintained without conflict, travel a bit in the Schengen area, you will be pleasantly surprised.
The Schengen area is becoming less open as migration paranoia breeds mistrust. Most member countries now have temporary (but often restarted) border controls within the area.
https://home-affairs.ec.europa.eu/policies/schengen/schengen-area/temporary-reintroduction-border-control_en
The UK is a ‘separate country’ to the Rep of Ireland, France, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands and others.
The UK was ‘a separate country’ to them when it was a member of the EU.
The UK is also ‘a separate country’ from every other member country of every supranational organisation it belongs to [eg WTO, UN]
If you can’t deduce an explanation from that on your own I’m not going to spend time joining the dots for you.
That implies a certain status in international law but I’m interested in more than a flag at the UN and diplomatic jaunts. The quality of life of the people of Wales matters more. You have again evaded the question of the border and many other questions of interdependency. Our economy, society and environment will remain closely entangled with that of England, and the wider world, whether or not we are formally separate. We would do well to recognise that and think through its implications. Not sleepwalk. In today’s interconnected world, separation is better thought of not as binary but as… Read more »
Yes but how many of those countries are so reliant on hospitals the other side of the border. Many Welsh people use English hospitals because it is the closest and most convenient. Other Welsh people use English hospitals because they are seen as more efficient. Then there are airports in England that work. I can’t think of a country that would have to deal with a border like this.
No other countries deal with a border like the Cymru England border.But it’s a mistake to think that borders can be separated into two types – the border between England and Cymru and all the rest. There are many other unique circumstances that borders across the world have to contend with. It might be that every border has it’s own unique mix of advantages and constraints. ‘ I can’t think of a country that would have to deal with a border like this [hospitals and airports].’ The traditional school teacher comment for such work is – Must try harder. You could… Read more »
Ireland seems to manage the border quite successfully
At present, yes. But you could not have said that for the internal Irish border in the late 20th century when it was a tight military frontier. That’s the point. We cannot just assume everything will be fine. It will depend on circumstances and negotiations. Post-Brexit negotiations to keep the border open in line with the Good Friday Agreement proved fraught. There was no devolved government in northern Ireland between February 2022 and November 2024 while the original Windsor Framework between the UK and the EU was renegotiated. The open border depends on northern Ireland remaining in the EU’s single… Read more »
“We have to look at our future with open eyes.” Excellent advice, I hope you take it.
I will. That’s why I’m trying to examine the problems from all angles.
As we discovered with Brexit, independence will bring many problems which are not only unforeseen at the moment, but unimaginable. To expect a detailed blueprint at this stage is unreasonable. Obviously (again like Brexit) independence will not happen overnight, and there should be plenty of time during that process to deal with the difficulties which are bound to arise. A lot will depend on the attitude of the EU, as an independent Cymru would not, in my opinion, survive unless we rejoin. As far as borders go, I don’t see a problem, and neither would anyone who, like me, has… Read more »
Most of the post-Brexit problems were predicted by those of us who campaigned against it, although I didn’t give enough weight to the Irish border question, considering which now leads me to see the issue of the Welsh-English border as central to any thinking about the implications of independence. Would we not have done better to give fuller consideration to all the issues ahead of leaving? Our relationship with the EU would be important but membership could not substitute for connections with England, by far our largest trade partner and across the border with which many tens of thousands of… Read more »
Google is never your friend, it’s your toxic gaslighting bully that supports manipulation and data harvesting. Please use a different search engine!
Over the 200 years following the American Revolutionary War of1783,165 colonies have gained independence from Western imperial powers, including 65 from the British Empire. Whatever their post-colonial political and economic state not a single one of these independent countries have shown any desire whatsoever to be re-colonised. They all much prefer independence to being a colony. The people of an independent Wales are sure to follow suit.
Oooh good. Wake me up when we get there.
No, stay awake and play your part in securing the objective.
Britain is the name of the island, independence won’t change that.
Nothing a few thousand tonnes of explosives wouldn’t cure, ala Panama.