Welsh education – a sleeping dragon

Luke Sibieta

Wales has given so much to the world. From these green valleys and majestic mountains have come Dylan Thomas, David Lloyd George, Betsi Cadwaladr, Gwen John, Robert Recorde, and Betty Campbell.

Wales was an early pioneer in expanding secondary schooling in the late 19th century – and teachers trained in Welsh colleges went on to work right across Britain.

Yet, despite this proud heritage, the Welsh education system is increasingly under-performing. It is now holding the nation back.

Wales consistently ranks lowest across the UK in international tests for school pupils in reading, maths, and science — a gap that is widening over time. Absenteeism is high, and participation in post-16 education is declining sharply.

It is not about funding or poverty

The problem is not primarily funding. As highlighted in a new report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, school spending per pupil has been comparable to England (where performance is higher) over the last 15 years, and has grown by 14% over and above inflation since 2019.

And while poverty levels in Wales tend to be a little higher than in England, this alone can’t explain Wales’s poor relative educational performance.

Pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds in Wales perform worse than peers in similar English regions. In areas such as Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, and Merthyr Tydfil, GCSE results lag behind equally or more deprived English areas like Blackpool, Sunderland, and Knowsley.

Having helped with the expansion of secondary education in England 100 years ago, Wales should be open to lessons from over Offa’s dyke now.

Parts of England have shown the transformational difference that improvements in education can make, especially for those from the most disadvantaged backgrounds.

Even without additional funding, significant improvements can be made if policymakers are willing to commit to a system that embeds high expectations, good use of data and evidence, and accountability .

Consistent and high expectations

High-performing education systems share one key feature: consistent, high expectations. In Wales, this is lacking. Pupils at the top of the attainment distribution perform notably worse in Wales, suggesting many are under-challenged.

This has been consistently seen over the last decade. The latest PISA results show that we are also seeing a worse levels of performance for disadvantaged pupils in Wales.

The new ‘Curriculum for Wales’ assesses pupils through ‘progression steps’, but the criteria are vague. Schools interpret them inconsistently, meaning some pupils’ attainment is overestimated, leaving them under-challenged and allowing wide disparities in skills to emerge, particularly when pupils transition from primary to secondary school.

Worse, there is no systematic way for the Welsh Government to check that progression steps are applied consistently.

Lucy Crehan, an international expert on education, has argued that a well-defined entitlement to knowledge at each progression step is essential if these steps are to support real progression.

Use of data and evidence

Top education systems also make strong use of data and evidence. A vast amount of data on children’s skills in Wales is collected through annual tests in literacy and numeracy. Yet schools and government can’t use these for comparative analysis across similar schools, pupils and areas.

There is a total lack of clear benchmarks on what pupils are expected to achieve at different ages. That makes it harder than it needs to be for schools to understand their own pupils’ performance and judge the impact of changes they make to their practice.

This contrasts with previous practice in Wales and most high-performing systems elsewhere in the world, where data drives discussion, improvement, and learning across schools.

Providing schools with easy-to-use tools for comparative analysis would be straightforward and effective. This does not have to mean a return to school league tables or high-stakes accountability.

Estyn, the Welsh inspectorate, also operates with limited access to robust comparative data. As a result, inspections rely heavily on evidence gathered during relatively short visits rather than a consistent view of pupil outcomes over time. This can reduce consistency and make it harder for policymakers and parents to identify the most effective schools and spread successful practice.

This has been particularly evident in the recent controversy over reading instruction in Wales.

A significant body of research shows that children learn to read most effectively through synthetic phonics, which teaches the relationship between letters and sounds and how they combine into words.

Until recently, however, Welsh Government guidance did not consistently promote this approach and appeared open to schools using cueing strategies that encourage pupils to guess unfamiliar words using context, pictures or other cues rather than decoding them through phonics.

Only recently has advice shifted more clearly toward evidence-based phonics. The episode highlights a wider disconnect between research and policy.

Getting more children back in school and education

Absenteeism remains stubbornly high. In Wales, over a quarter of pupils were persistently absent – missing more than 1-in-10 school days per year –, with rates even higher for children from deprived backgrounds.

Increasing numbers of pupils have left the school system and are educated at home, where it’s harder to ensure quality. All these trends can be seen in England, but seem worse and more persistent in Wales.

Getting more children back into school on a consistent basis will require tackling the root causes of persistent absence. This includes high unauthorised absence (such as truancy), but also high levels of reported health-related absence.

This inevitably requires a focus on mental health, but is also likely to require broader attention to children’s relationship with social media, clear and consistent behaviour standards across schools and addressing concerns on bullying.

Beyond the school gate, there have also been substantial declines in participation in post-16 education, with the share of 16 to 17 year olds in full-time education in Wales down from 78% in 2014 to 64% today. It is currently 84% in England.

There are particular concerns with regards to boys from working class backgrounds – a group significantly affected by labour market changes in recent generations.

The reasons for the fall in education participation are not well understood presently – research on the role of different factors is needed. But at face value the trend is concerning, given the positive benefits associated with post-16 education.

A sense of urgency

Above all, Wales needs urgency. Establishing clear and consistent progression standards, using data effectively, aligning practice with actual evidence, reducing absence, and reversing declines in post-16 education are all possible – if policymakers are willing to learn from experience elsewhere and challenge some long-standing taboos in Welsh policy.

Such action could be a defining achievement of the coming Senedd term – or a missed opportunity.  Whoever forms the next Welsh Government, mae’n hen bryd deffro’r ddraig.