Welsh Labour’s last stand

David Taylor

Exactly eight months from the Senedd election, Welsh Labour faces its toughest challenge in a generation. Opinion polls now consistently place the party third in a three-horse race. For a party that has dominated Welsh politics for a century, this represents a serious crisis but not necessarily a terminal one.

The polls have triggered a panicked response, with matters made worse by ill-conceived interventions and what seems like a different message every week. Yet recovery remains possible. Labour can still emerge as the largest party next May, but only with ruthless focus on what’s required to stop haemorrhaging support and start winning back voters.

There are many reasons the party finds itself in this predicament, but the long-term soul-searching can wait. What’s needed now are cool heads and a clear plan.

The Caerphilly test

If the sense of urgency wasn’t real enough already, there’s the immediate challenge of the Caerphilly byelection on October 23, triggered by the tragic death of Hefin David. This is a battle no one wanted, but everyone must now contest. It will be closely fought between Labour, Plaid Cymru and Reform – a taste of what’s to come next year. This will be the most significant byelection in Senedd history and likely the last.

The biggest advantage here is ground organisation and data. While opponents dominate social media and grab headlines, byelections, especially non-Westminster ones, are won by knocking on doors and turning out voters. Eluned Morgan should throw everything at it. Victory would bring her a much-needed shot in the arm and could fundamentally change the political narrative heading into May.

The real challenge: Reform

The broader strategic challenge for next year requires understanding who Welsh Labour is really fighting. The greatest danger clearly comes from Reform. Their momentum across the UK is compounded in Wales by a leadership in denial. Too many at the top of Welsh Labour remain reluctant to recognise this threat, still talking about a “progressive majority” in Wales. This represents the fundamental misreading that has landed the party in this mess.

For too long, Welsh Labour has assumed Welsh exceptionalism: that voters in Wales think differently from those in England, that they are somehow more progressive, more enlightened. The Brexit vote nine years ago should have dispelled this notion. Welsh voters felt the same sense of being left behind by a political class that seemed increasingly distant from their lives and concerns.

Reform is tapping into this. The party is attracting former Labour voters who feel Welsh Labour no longer speaks for them. These aren’t political extremists, they are people who voted Labour for decades but now see the party prioritising fashionable causes that matter to activists over issues that affect their daily lives: access to housing, jobs, healthcare and schools.

The Welsh government compounds this problem when it doubles down on virtue-signalling policies that validate voters’ sense that politicians don’t understand their world. For example, the Nation of Sanctuary agenda, however well-intentioned, can appear tone-deaf to communities struggling with public service pressures.

The opportunity lies in recognising that these voters want acknowledgement, not conversion to a different worldview. They want politicians who understand the pressures they face rather than lecture them about their attitudes. Many would welcome a government that grasped their frustrations rather than dismissed them.

This isn’t about abandoning Labour values. It’s about reconnecting with people who feel left behind by a party they once trusted.

The Plaid problem

Plaid Cymru is a threat that needs perspective. Every electoral cycle brings the same pattern: modest poll increases get talked up by nationalist-leaning commentators and excitable media allies into breakthrough stories that never materialise.

Plaid has consistently underperformed these expectations, largely because its core message has limited appeal beyond traditional strongholds. The Welsh language, for all its virtues, is a millstone around the party’s neck with the English-speaking majority. Welsh independence remains a fringe concern that most voters believe would impoverish Wales.

Rhun ap Iorwerth’s approach this time is smart if cynical. Much like John Swinney in Scotland, he aims to be boring, do and say as little as possible in terms of policy, keep his head down and hope to come through the middle while Reform fragments Labour’s vote. This strategy could work if Labour allows it to.

History shows that more often than not, when Labour takes on the nationalists, they crumble. It’s time to stop indulging them. When ministers pull punches with more than an eye on post-election coalition deals, they lose ground. The danger comes not from Plaid’s strength but from Labour’s reluctance to fight them properly.

The path to recovery

Of course, Welsh Labour’s fate is not entirely within its control. But in the areas where they do have agency, they have been making mistakes that have accelerated decline and weakened their strategic position.

Former Tory strategist Lynton Crosby was fond of saying that you can’t fatten a pig on market day. These changes won’t transform Welsh Labour’s prospects overnight. But here are three things the first minister could start doing today that would yield immediate benefit:

Acknowledge voters’ real concerns. For too many voters, the Welsh government appears out of touch, giving the impression that it doesn’t care about or agree with public concerns about immigration, the pace of cultural change, and everyday pressures on services. When people worry about pressures on schools or housing waiting lists, they need to feel heard, not dismissed. Eluned Morgan, as leader, must demonstrate that she’s listening and understands their frustrations. If she can do this, it would be more powerful than a dozen policy announcements.

Embrace UK partnership. Keir Starmer’s government has faced well documented significant challenges, but trying to put distance between Cardiff and Westminster abandons Welsh Labour’s unique selling point — proximity to power. The “Red Welsh Way” rhetoric is glib and lacks substance, seeking to occupy anti-Westminster space already claimed more credibly by Plaid and Reform.

Instead, Welsh Labour’s strength lies in demonstrating that two Labour governments working together deliver better outcomes than opposition politics. There is a positive story to tell about the UK government delivering for Wales, and if Welsh Labour won’t tell it, no one else will. The party should showcase concrete wins: additional funding secured, major infrastructure projects announced, and prime ministerial influence that opposition parties cannot provide.

Frame the campaign around Labour achievements and ideas, not opponents’ attack lines. Don’t be thrown off course by polls or offer running commentary on every political development. Instead, stick to the plan, be consistent, and be confident of the ground you fight on. Communicate directly with voters through the superior field operation and activist network that remains the party’s greatest asset.

Time running out

Welsh Labour’s challenges are real, but they remain the party with the strongest brand, infrastructure and resources. Pundits have predicted their demise many times before, only to be proved wrong.

They will likely lose votes and seats in May, but total collapse isn’t inevitable. The question is whether they can stem the bleeding enough to emerge as the largest group. That outcome remains achievable, but only if they abandon the comfortable myths that created this crisis.

The party that once understood Wales better than anyone can reconnect with its people. They have eight months to prove they still know how. Time is running out fast.

David Taylor is a former Welsh Labour special adviser