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Opinion

What If the UK is just a chapter, not the whole story?

24 May 2025 6 minute read
Is Wales is too small. Too poor?

Owen Williams

They’ve said it for decades. That Wales is too small. Too poor. That we’d never survive alone. But who gets to decide that? And why do we still believe them?

Let’s break this down. Because the argument isn’t really about size. It’s about power. And the people who hold power rarely give it up without first convincing you you’d be worse off without them.

The truth? Small nations thrive all over the world. Iceland has a population smaller than Cardiff, but it ranks higher on nearly every quality-of-life index than the UK. Estonia, Latvia, and Slovenia are all smaller than Wales. All independent. All stable. All making their own choices, sometimes messy, sometimes bold, but theirs to make.

Being small isn’t a weakness. It’s an opportunity. Smaller countries can move faster, respond better, govern smarter. And when the government is within reach of the people it serves, democracy feels a little less distant and a lot more real.

Ireland: proof that the UK isn’t the only way

Look west. A hundred years ago, Ireland left the UK. At the time, some said it was madness. That the new state would fail. That it would come crawling back. It didn’t.

Today, Ireland is one of Europe’s most dynamic economies. It’s not without problems. No country is. But it’s sovereign. It makes its own laws. It acts in its own interest. And crucially, it belongs to its people.

There are left-wing parties in Ireland. Right-wing parties. Centrist coalitions. Spirited debate. But there isn’t a single mainstream party calling for a return to UK rule. Because once you’ve had the chance to shape your own state, you don’t dream of rejoining the one that thought it owned you.

You improve what’s yours. You believe in the principle that your country is exactly that: your country.

Ireland reminds us that independence isn’t some radical break from normality. It is normal. It’s the UK that’s the anomaly: a union of countries, bound together by centuries-old legislation, still acting as though that arrangement is permanent. It isn’t.

If devolution “doesn’t work”, why would independence?

You’ll hear some say devolution hasn’t worked. Wales is still poor. Still struggling. Still behind. That frustration is real. And it deserves a serious answer.

But the problem isn’t that Wales can’t govern itself. It’s that, under devolution, it’s never really been allowed to. We have some powers, yes. But not the tools that make real change possible.

We can’t set most taxes. We can’t shape welfare. We don’t control energy, transport, or broadcasting.

The budget we do have is decided by a government in Westminster that we didn’t vote for. So we end up managing problems we didn’t create, with money we don’t control, through policies shaped by priorities that aren’t ours.

That’s not a failure of Welsh Government. That’s a failure of the system. It’s like being given a bike with no chain and told to keep up.

And the parties in charge of that system are still mostly UK-wide. Their main aim is to keep the UK together.

Wales is often just a footnote. Sometimes not even that. The Senedd is doing its best within the limits it has. But the architecture of our legislature was never meant to light the touchpaper for independence. It was designed to contain the demand for change, rather than answer it.

If anything, devolution shows just how badly Wales needs the full powers of a normal country. Because until then, we’re not failing at self-government. We’re being denied the chance to try.

The UK isn’t a fact of nature

The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland isn’t gravity. It’s not oxygen. It’s not eternal. It’s a political arrangement, not a divine truth.

Scotland joined through the Act of Union in 1707. Ireland (in part) left in 1922. These are not abstract constitutional facts. They are reminders that the UK is changeable. That its shape is political, not predestined.

Even today, the foundations shake. Scotland has come close to leaving. Northern Ireland is being pulled in two directions by history and geography. England, more than ever, acts as though it is the UK.

But it isn’t. It’s just one part of it. The union isn’t inevitable. It’s not forever. And it doesn’t work equally for all.

When someone tells you the UK is a success, ask who it’s working for. Ask what kind of success leaves whole nations feeling stuck, silenced, or second-best. And ask why, if it’s such a success, the people running it are so terrified of anyone leaving.

Starting again on our own terms

An independent Wales wouldn’t be a continuation of the UK by other means. It would be something new. That doesn’t mean chaos. It means choices. It means designing a state from the ground up, asking what we want to keep, what we want to let go, and what we want to build for ourselves.

Do we want the same centralised government model, or something more local? The same media ownership structure? The same approach to natural resources? To public services? To housing?

It’s all up for debate. And that should be treated as a strength. Wales doesn’t need to copy the UK to survive. In fact, we might thrive precisely by not copying it.

Britishness doesn’t belong to the UK

To want independence isn’t to hate Britain. It’s not to reject our shared histories, cultures, or languages.

It’s not to deny the importance of working together across these islands. But let’s be clear. Britishness isn’t owned by the UK State. It isn’t a loyalty badge. It isn’t a border.

Britishness is geography. It’s the island we live on. It’s a sense of shared space, not a single state.

If Wales became independent tomorrow, its people would still live on the island of Great Britain. They’d still speak English and Welsh. They’d still drink tea, and sing in the Six Nations. They’d just do so in a country they owned.

The real question

So is Wales too small to be independent? No. But that doesn’t mean independence is simple, or risk-free, or inevitable. It means that the usual objections deserve a second look. That the argument about size and scale is less about capacity, and more about imagination.

A future Welsh state wouldn’t be built overnight. It would take time, planning, and difficult decisions. But it would be ours to shape. The overwhelming majority of countries in the world already govern themselves. They make mistakes. They course-correct. They adapt. Wales could do the same. It wouldn’t be easy. But it’s possible. And maybe that’s the more honest starting point.


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46 Comments
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Stephen Thomas
Stephen Thomas
14 days ago

Well written and very succinct.aA very convincing argument put forward,, but i’ve been a believer since childhood

Crwtyddol
Crwtyddol
13 days ago
Reply to  Stephen Thomas

Snap!

J Jones
J Jones
14 days ago

A bit like a youngster who decides it’s time to leave home, you don’t just walk out the door but must plan your future with the obvious essentials that need to be paid for.

Thus there is a need to be economically active and have a realistic long term plan, as independent countries don’t have soup kitchens and a local council to demand everything from.

Tim Edwards
Tim Edwards
14 days ago
Reply to  J Jones

All out taxes go to Westminster and we get a bit back. What makes you think Cymru (Wales) is not economically active enough?

J Jones
J Jones
14 days ago
Reply to  Tim Edwards

Nearly 30% of 16 to 64 year olds are economically inactive, the worst rate for any nation or region in the UK – according to the Office for National Statistics.

I’m passionate about Cymru being a self governing country, but ignoring the above means the problem will get worse, increasing the 30% while more of the 70% leave the country.

Hal
Hal
13 days ago
Reply to  J Jones

Won’t that statistic include people who’ve chosen to retire early?

J Jones
J Jones
13 days ago
Reply to  Hal

The irony about your point is that many I know who were business owners have packed in early because of the anti business attitude.

Hal
Hal
13 days ago
Reply to  J Jones

Yeah, no, I think most who retire early do so because they can. It’s certainly not a measure of economic failure, nor is it right to suggest their every-day-on-the-golf-course existence is contributing to economic failure.

J Jones
J Jones
13 days ago
Reply to  Hal

I like business but don’t like golf, maybe the many others with this view are the reason why golf memberships are declining.

Good luck to those who’ve earned the right to wind down early, but the fact is that individuals who have grafted into their 60s have a diminished desire to continue a business that requires younger generations who now have very little desire for work.

Hal
Hal
13 days ago
Reply to  J Jones

The problem isn’t work. Younger generations have very little desire to be exploited. The business community in the UK has always viewed workers as resources to be plundered rather than partners in success. This attitude was of course forged in the days of empire when all business success was directly or indirectly built on slavery. And it’s actually getting worse. A generation ago it was possible to get a cushy white collar job and be set for life. Now people can work hard with no more security than a 30 days notice period and a wage that’s barely putting food… Read more »

Wrexhamian
Wrexhamian
13 days ago
Reply to  J Jones

Current devolved powers make it difficult for any Welsh Government to develop a successful economy outside tourism. It was never intended by Westminster for Wales to develop a strong economy that would fit it for greater sovereignty. That said, every Welsh Labour Government could have done a lot more with the limited powers and finances at their disposal.

Frank
Frank
14 days ago

Quote: “Wales is still poor. Still struggling. Still behind.” That’s because we are intentionally kept that way by Westminster. They never want us to ever succeed at anything. I think they are even behind the state of Cymru’s rugby…. lol. We must have done something really bad to England in the past.

Last edited 14 days ago by Frank
J Jones
J Jones
14 days ago
Reply to  Frank

2015: Cymru defeat England at Twickenham to knock them out of their own RWC, a tournament organised by Quentin Smith.

2023: A sabotage report brings a takeover of the WRU with the top 5 positions taken by English individuals with limited ability. The report was coincidentally organised by Quentin Smith.

Geraint
Geraint
13 days ago
Reply to  Frank

To be honest, Frank, it’s not that Westminster doesn’t want Wales to succeed, it’s just that it has far greater priorities to worry about. How many votes would a sitting UK government receive from a successful, grateful, Wales?

Anianegwr
Anianegwr
13 days ago
Reply to  Geraint

This 👆

Hal
Hal
13 days ago
Reply to  Geraint

Traditionally it’s been neglect and ignorance by a ruling elite who prioritised themselves rather than anything more sinister, but I do wonder what Johnson’s Muscular Unionism Unit really got up to.

Geraint
Geraint
11 days ago
Reply to  Hal

Westminster democracy prioritises the United Kingdom, rather than any individual country within it. That’s what it says on the tin.
Where there might be a conflict of interest and as the largest country by far, decisions will always ensure that England isn’t compromised.
This is why Welsh devolution is so vital for us here in Wales.

Frank
Frank
13 days ago
Reply to  Geraint

Westminster finds plenty of time for England and several other foreign countries before Cymru. Are you having a laugh?

Geraint
Geraint
11 days ago
Reply to  Frank

England is by far the biggest country in the United Kingdom so it’s not surprising that England receives the lion’s share of focus and funding from HM Treasury.
I’m afraid I have no idea what you mean by “other foreign countries”.

Hal
Hal
13 days ago
Reply to  Frank

I think they’re still humiliated that the last invasion attempt was thwarted by Welsh women.

Anianegwr
Anianegwr
13 days ago

Spot on Owen. Remember, the UK is the State an empire built. The lie is in that it masquerades as a nation. The antidote to anglo-British imperialism is multicultural British pluralism. Let’s talk about its replacement. What should a progressive British union look like. Start with our historic nations as sovereign states. Build from the bottom up, not impose from the top down. The UK is a classist society with inequality built in. It has to end. As you say, Britain will continue to exist. What kind of Britain and what will Cymru’s relationship with the other nations be and… Read more »

Last edited 13 days ago by Anianegwr
andy
andy
13 days ago

Regardless of independence, Wales must develop its’ economy to suit the needs of the population.

England cannot deliver infrastructure projects.

A number of retired business people have been reviewing the future economic direction and working with international networks to ensure that opportunities such as http://www.gcre.wales are maximised.

All global airlines economists past and present network on a platform to discuss cargo routes; that platform has had a discussion on India developing solar powered boats to link India to Port Talbot – near Tatas steelworks:
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?p=24739627#p24739627

Hal
Hal
13 days ago

Even without Welsh or Scottish independence, the “UK” is on borrowed time because when Irish reunification inevitably happens the name of the UK state would likely revert to Great Britain, as it was before Ireland joined.

J Jones
J Jones
13 days ago
Reply to  Hal

I never refer to it as a United KINGdom, as there is no unity between the English KING and the other countries.

Compared to our retiring outsiders from England, the outsiders in Northern Ireland are obviously more aggressive. So Ireland may have to wait as long as us to be a fully independent and united country.

Rob
Rob
13 days ago
Reply to  J Jones

Actually Irish reunification is more likely than Scottish independence. Yes there are hardline unionists but they are slowly dying off. The younger generation who did not grow up during the troubles increasingly see themselves as Irish and want the benefits and privileges of EU membership. Moreover London sees no value in holding onto Northern Ireland as it does with Scotland. It was a major headache for them during the Brexit negotiations.

Llew Gruffudd
Llew Gruffudd
13 days ago

There seems to be seven comments gone missing

John Ellis
John Ellis
12 days ago

‘Look west. A hundred years ago, Ireland left the UK. At the time, some said it was madness. That the new state would fail. That it would come crawling back. It didn’t.
Today, Ireland is one of Europe’s most dynamic economies.’

Very true. But it took a full fifty years of austerity in the public sphere for Ireland to achieve it.

On the whole Ireland’s population showed a readiness to bear with that. The question has to be whether the bulk of Welsh folk in our time would be similarly willing, were that to be the immediate outcome of independence.

Last edited 12 days ago by John Ellis
Peter J
Peter J
12 days ago
Reply to  John Ellis

Agree, people always have amnesia for those 60 years after independence which saw massive emigration! The conditions that made ROI ‘wealthy’-(and they are actually a microcosm of the UK in terms of wealth distribution), simply aren’t available today. The ROI benefited enormously from single market access for US and Swiss companies leading to high levels of fdi. State aid rules nowadays mean this route isn’t possible. Some of their GDP figures are masked by the fact many companies are based in ROI with minimal staff numbers to minimise tax (eBay etc). Maybe looking towards Slovenia or Slovakia might be a… Read more »

Last edited 12 days ago by Peter J
Bruce
Bruce
12 days ago
Reply to  Peter J

The GDP figures are misleading, no-one seriously believes they are the second richest state in the world. And much of the US investment into Ireland was also motivated not just by favourable tax regimes but also the fact that half of the US is Irish and hasn’t forgotten how their ancestors came to be in the US.

But that doesn’t mean their success isn’t real.

John Ellis
John Ellis
11 days ago
Reply to  Peter J

Fair points. Even so, Ireland does show that a small country originally part of the UK can ultimately make it on its own; I read that the average Irish person is right now more prosperous and financially well-heeled than is the average UK citizen.

But for me the question still hangs: just how long would it take to get there? And how much hard times might there be in the meantime?!

Peter J
Peter J
11 days ago
Reply to  John Ellis

“How long would it take to get there? And how much hard times might there be in the meantime?!” is a question every nationalist should ask themselves, or be asked. You’re right to say Ireland never looked back, but then Wales has never had anywhere near the same levels of grievances that Ireland had (Great hunger, religious marginalisation, penal laws etc).

John Ellis
John Ellis
11 days ago
Reply to  Peter J

I think that you and I might be pretty much on the same page on this issue.

Bruce
Bruce
12 days ago
Reply to  John Ellis

“Ireland’s population showed a readiness to bear with that”

A Westminster government that let a million of their family and friends starve to death to avoid stifling private enterprise that kept sending food to London probably had something to do with this.

John Ellis
John Ellis
11 days ago
Reply to  Bruce

I think that must certainly be true; the folk memory of all that across much of Ireland at the start of the 20th century when the campaign for Irish independence really took off is bound to have been very real. After all, at that time the 1840s were at that time only sixty to seventy years in the past, and there must have been quite some number of old people still alive in Ireland back then who, from childhood, could remember that time. Or, if not, who had been told the tale in graphic detail by older generations of family,… Read more »

Llew Gruffudd
Llew Gruffudd
12 days ago
Reply to  John Ellis

A hundred years ago Ireland was a rural economy. It was a very big step to become industrialised. Wales has a developed economy with modern institutions, It will be a relatively short time before an Independent can turn what is presently a stagnant economy dictated by policies of Westminster, to a growing economy.

Llew Gruffudd
Llew Gruffudd
11 days ago
Reply to  Llew Gruffudd

Apologies. The reply should read an Independent Wales.

John Ellis
John Ellis
11 days ago
Reply to  Llew Gruffudd

That’s a solid argument. But will enough Welsh voters be sufficiently sure of its truth to take the risk, lest it turn out, at least in the short-term, to seem unfounded? That’s another thing about which I’m less than sure.

Llew Gruffudd
Llew Gruffudd
11 days ago
Reply to  John Ellis

What is for sure is that the public, the voters, won’t be convinced unless they are told. My problem is, not that the Welsh economy is not able to sustain a small population to a much higher stand than at present, but that this truth is not being put. The economic and social arguments are not being spread. Instead we are getting the sound bites of Wales being too small, too poor, too dependent. The sound bite policy worked for Brexit, it’s working for Reform. Plaid Cymru is the obvious platform for public persuasion, but I am sorry to say… Read more »

John Ellis
John Ellis
11 days ago
Reply to  Llew Gruffudd

I think that, broadly speaking, I tend to agree with you there. But the actual and definitive test will surely be what Welsh voters – or at least such of them who stir themselves sufficiently to turn out to vote in the Senedd election in less than a year’s time – opt to prefer. That remains to be seen. I don’t think that there’s the remotest chance that Reform will get the degree of electoral support here that they’ve already shown themselves able to secure in large areas of non-metropolitan ‘middle England’. But I do think that there’s a definite… Read more »

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