What next for Labour?

Ben Wildsmith 

With Andy Burnham barred from standing in the Gorton & Denton by election, the prospects for Keir Starmer’s leadership have altered, but not necessarily in the PM’s favour.

Burnham is far and away the most high-profile alternative to Starmer. If not the prince over the water, he’s certainly been a pain in the neck up the M6 for the entirety of Starmer’s tenure.

It’s been a very long game. Having lost to Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, Burnham provoked resentment in the PLP by refusing to participate in its attempts to destabilise the new leader. Labour’s soft left, with which Burnham associated, is frequently in dispute with the neo-Blairite right of the party but tends to operate in different geographical areas.

Its more emotional disputes have been with the ‘hard left’ which often makes life difficult for soft left MPs within branches. So, when that faction took control of the party, the organisation amongst MPs to take it down was ruthless.

At the time, Burnham’s refusal to resign as Shadow Home Secretary or to condemn Corbyn was taken as a betrayal. In time, however, as Burnham has grown his profile and progressive credentials as the Manchester Mayor, that risk has proven a wise one.

Labour’s principal problem under Starmer is one of credibility. The PM, under instruction from adviser Morgan McSweeney, pitched his succession to Jeremy Corbyn as a change of style rather than ideology. When that turned out to be a ruse, MPs on the left of the party who had supported him were left shackled to a leader who had gleefully shredded his progressive credentials in pursuit of Tory votes.

They looked like sell-outs to Labour members and many voters too. Meanwhile, Burnham was away from the fray and saying all the things those MPs wished that Starmer believed in. Absence makes the heart grow fonder.

It’s still absence, though, and with Burnham out of the Commons, and thus ineligible for the leadership, for the next few months, others will be spying an opportunity.

The upcoming by-election will be the next moment of peril for Starmer. Ironically, he might well have been safer had Burnham been allowed to run. Had the Mayor lost, it could have been safely blamed on him alone. If he had won, then to force a leadership election immediately would have looked disloyal to the point of being unprofessional. Starmer would have had a few months, at least, to find a way of integrating Burnham into his project.

Grudge

As it is, Burnham is on the outside and clearly harbouring a grudge about his treatment last week. It’s fair to expect that briefings to the press regarding Starmer and his team will be frequent and critical.

If Labour wins the by-election, Starmer would, you’d think, benefit tremendously. Such is the dissatisfaction with him in that area of the world, however, Labour figures in the North West will be quick to claim the victory as theirs despite the PM, not because of him.

If Labour loses, however, Starmer’s position will come under threat immediately. Whilst a loss to Reform UK would be damaging, it’s possible that Starmer could use this to retrench behind his tougher stance on immigration and argue that pivoting to the left is nonsensical when the electorate has pivoted to the right.

If the defeat were to be to the Greens, though, the PM would have no defence of his position. In that scenario, you can expect Wes Streeting, Shabana Mahmood, and a figure from the soft left to contest the leadership immediately.

Soft left candidate

In the wake of Starmer’s collapse in popularity, a soft left candidate would be well placed to provide a progressive reset and challenge the Green ascendency. With Burnham out, speculation would surround Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband, and Lucy Powell.

Rayner remains a divisive figure, beloved by some but loathed by others. Her tax difficulties remain fresh in the mind and there are suggestions that she won’t seek the leadership because of the impact on her family.

Miliband is popular with the membership but a proven election loser. It would be hard to refresh the party by reverting to a face from the past.

Powell has genuine beef with Starmer, who fired her alone from his government during the recent botched reshuffle. Her subsequent victory in the Deputy Leadership election suggests that the party membership see her as a credible alternative to Starmer’s rightward drift.

Should the PM hang on in the aftermath of the by-election, he will be straight into a guaranteed catastrophe in May. We know the Senedd to be lost and polls suggest that the news will be no better for Labour anywhere else come the 8^th May.

By that time, potential successors will have had time to assemble teams and thrash out pacts.

So, Burnham or no Burnham, the PM will likely face his Waterloo soon, whether that be in March or May. How the wider party responds to that will determine whether it remains viable as an electoral force, or fades into history.

Ben will be in conversation with Jon Gower in Cardiff on Thursday for the launch of his new book Whose Song to Sing. Tickets for the evening are available here.