What would a Reform UK Welsh government look like?

Desmond Clifford

Six months ago, Reform UK was running gangbusters. The Caerphilly by-election pricked the balloon and since then its progress has been more nuanced.

Farage’s chumminess with Trump, an asset once, is a liability now; even on the right, Trump’s contempt for Britain plays badly.

Immigration, however, remains a strong card with voters even if its practical impact in much of Wales is limited.

Opinion polls don’t currently suggest a pathway to power for Reform but they’re running a strong second and victory can’t be ruled out.

What might a Reform Welsh Government look like in practice?

It’s a tricky question to answer. Reform’s candidate for First Minister, Dan Thomas, has been active in Welsh politics for all of two months. The party has just announced its slate of candidates, prompting the emergence of a Nazi salute photo and a couple of early resignations. It’ll be an achievement if they get through the campaign without more.

Reform UK purists are critical of the number of Tories jumping ship to save their skins.

Two Conservative Senedd Members have done exactly that. It’s fair to say that neither Laura Anne Jones nor James Evans are household names, possibly even in their own homes. By Reform’s standards, though, they are positively Gladstonian in Senedd experience and both, I imagine, would sit in a Reform Cabinet.

The first hurdle for Reform if they emerge as the biggest party would be how to form a government.

Their only option would be to work with what’s left of the Conservatives; increasingly Reform looks like Conservatives-By-Other-Means in any case.

The Tories, though, are in real danger of wipe-out and voting dynamics means that the better Reform does, the fewer Conservatives will get to the Senedd.

Redundant

Welsh Conservatives have sat redundant in the Senedd for 27 years, their isolation exacerbated by poor political choices. They were sitting ducks for Reform.

Tory leader Darren Miller often boasts about his personal constituency following. We’ll find out soon if that carries over into the new voting system but, if so, he might find himself a offered a plum post in a Reform government.

Reform UK is a political cult rather than a membership-driven party. Its identity is shaped by Nigel Farage who sits astride the party brand. Reform’s purpose is to propel Farage into No 10 and everything else is secondary to that mission.

The last thing Farage wants is a Reform Welsh Government crashing the car and wrecking his chances.

Farage is trying to soften his caricature to gain broader appeal and his marching instructions to his Welsh branch will reflect this. Farage’s interests, and therefore Reform’s, would be served by competent administration and avoiding schlock-horror headlines.

On that basis, Reform in government may not be quite the wrecking ball some imagine, at least not intentionally.

Candidate First Minister Dan Thomas will barely know his Senedd Members and yet must select a Cabinet.

Thomas has led a London local authority but leading a national Welsh government is a different proposition. He must appoint Ministers to run the NHS, schools and economic development, and then supervise their performance. He will need to account for a £28 billion budget.

Messaging

First Minister Dan Thomas would, early on, set out a programme for government. Messaging will be traditional right-of-centre business rhetoric, cutting red tape and modest tax relief. He will criticise immigration but find himself without powers to do much about it.

If he examines the detail, he’ll discover little sense of crisis in Wales compared, say, to Kent where there are genuine pressures on services. He will further discover an NHS which would collapse without immigration.

Some supposedly populist measures may prove more problematic than imagined in the cold light of day. Reform pledge, for example, to remove the 20mph speed limit. Fine, but it must then defend the consequences. Death and injury rates will rise – the evidence is now clear – an awkward first achievement for a new government.

Reform pledge to drop Labour’s “Nation of Sanctuary” policy. The branding is cringe and Labour were daft to use it. The policy, however, mostly houses Ukrainians displaced by the war, an obligation most people support.

The funding comes largely from the UK Government specifically for that purpose, so if the policy is dropped, Wales loses the money anyway.

Ending practical support for Ukraine would position a Reform administration as Putin-friendly, a position even Farage might baulk at.

Reform plan to close the Welsh Government’s international offices. This would save a relatively miniscule amount, a couple of million pounds, while eroding support for Welsh businesses.

Wales’ competitors for Inward Investment like Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland would be delighted to have one less to worry about.

Mini-bonfire

Reform would likely torch a mini-bonfire of programmes deemed “progressive” or “woke”, so anything smacking of equalities, gender, future generations etc.

They will abolish the climate change emergency and reclaim Wales for fossil fuel.

What would Reform do with NHS Wales? The UK party talks boldly about “fundamental rethink” without being specific.

Rethinking fundamentally may or may not be a good idea, but it won’t manage Welsh waiting lists or health outcomes in the short term. There has been loose Reform talk in the past of moving towards an insurance-based model. This couldn’t happen in Wales after the election. NHS reform on that scale would be beyond Welsh administrative and financial capacity.

For all its challenges, the NHS remains popular with the public and Reform would be responsible for the clattering bedpan. The NHS is the toughest gig in Welsh politics and, like predecessor governments, they will struggle to impose sustainable improvement

Reform says they’ll reduce the number of civil servants. That’s within their powers and, unlike doctors and nurses, bureaucrats aren’t popular.

Reform might be surprised to discover there’re fewer civil servants than think, around 5,500 in the Welsh Government, not a tiny number but way fewer staff than any local authority in Wales and a quantum smaller than the UK version. Labour cut around 2,000 Civil Service posts during the austerity years.

Fewer officials would reduce the Government’s ability to do things – Reform could be happy with that – but financial savings might be less than they imagine.

Cutbacks

Reform talks a big game on cutbacks but in practice the things they’ve identified are small beer and hardly the basis for radical investment elsewhere.

Civil servants are required to offer unstinting service to the legitimately elected government. They would do so and work professionally, though it’s a fair bet many wouldn’t be thrilled at the prospect.

Some might vote with their feet and recruiting new talent could be a challenge. Civil society would likely be somewhat hostile to a Reform Government, and the feeling would likely be mutual – attrition would be the likely result.

The UK Government is mean to Wales at the best of times and a Reform government could expect no favours there.

An incoming Reform government will learn that the civil service is obliged to operate within the law and cannot be instructed otherwise. This includes all sorts of planning restrictions, competition law, equality, employment law and myriad statutory obligations which Ministers will find very aggravating – but unable to circumvent without landing themselves in court.

Getting government business through the Senedd might prove a challenge. If Reform has a majority at all, it will be small and, if the UKIP experience is anything to go by, new parties suffer chronic instability. The risk of fragmentation would be ever-present.

Tantrums

Reform already has track record of tantrums, jealousies and resentments. No party is immune from this (look at Welsh Labour!) but Reform has a demonstrably weak culture of discipline, lacking the networks and loyalties which help preserve comparative stability in established parties.

Reform UK, I suspect, doesn’t really want to form the Welsh Government. Their optimum result is to be the largest party while falling short of a governing majority. This would give them a “moral victory” and prime Senedd position as the Official Opposition, while swerving the risk of a tarnished Reform brand through the corroding effects of day-to-day government responsibility.

Foghorn intact, Farage would be delighted.

Unless there’s a significant shift during the campaign, the path to a Reform UK Welsh Government (“Reform UK Welsh Government”: how confusing is that?!) looks tenuous. With the Conservatives struggling, there’s little on offer by way of potential coalition support.

2026 will change Welsh politics. The Senedd’s first era was defined by a centrist consensus. At the start of the Senedd’s second era politics is dividing into starkly opposite identities: left-right, Welsh-British, outward-inward, collective-individual.

Reform UK is a major vehicle for this shift in Wales, though whether in government or opposition remains to be seen.