What’s the point of the Tories?

Jonathan Edwards

As the current Senedd comes to an end, the official opposition finds itself facing an existential crisis.

This week’s poll indicates that its support has dropped by 18 percentage points since the 2021 election, with the party only receiving the support of 7% of the electorate and predicted to be left with only a single representative.

The rise of Reform was always likely to pose significant challenges for the Conservative Party.

However, current projections are the political equivalent of a galactic supernova – the implosion in Wales of the UKs most successful political party.

Like rabbits stuck in headlights, the Tories have failed to respond to the insurgency challenge posed by Reform.

They faced two choices once Reform overtook them in the polls. Firstly, they could mimic the anti-politics of Reform in the hope that voters attracted to Mr Farage would stay loyal to the mothership, or set a different path based on a serious economic renewal programme and a coherent plan to address the problems faced by public services under the control of the Welsh Government.

In choosing the former the Tories in Wales have made an historic strategic miscalculation.

Once Reform had overtaken them, those on the right of the political spectrum were always more likely to coalesce around them.

Both parties have published their respective manifestos early, but a quick glance at both indicates the difficulties the Tories have got themselves into.

As the Institute for Fiscal Studies notes, the resemblance between both documents is striking. When a Tory source commented on the Reform manifesto that “imitation is the best form of flattery”, it wasn’t uttered from a position of strength.

There are no rival visions between both parties. When it comes to the signature policies that will be used during the election campaign, Tory and Reform candidates will be singing in harmony. Both are pledging to cut income tax. Both want to build the long-delayed M4 relief road. Both want to scrap the default 20mph speed limit. Both want to end the Nation of Sanctuary initiative. On energy, both oppose large-scale onshore wind farms.

Without clear division lines, it is difficult to see how the Tories can turn matters around over the course of the next month. The only clear divide is that the Tories would restore the Senedd to 60 Members, presumably after a full term of 96 Members. Somehow, I can’t see turkeys voting for Christmas if the Tories performed a Lazarus-like recovery.

Nuanced differences

To be fair, there are nuanced differences. Whereas Reform would reduce income tax by a penny in the pound across all tax bands, the Tory pledge is restricted to basic rate taxpayers.

While Reform pay for the M4 relief road via a toll-based financing arrangement, the Tories haven’t indicated where they will find the billions required for the project.

On housing, the Tories will restore Right to Buy, while Reform will prioritise housing for those deemed in their eyes as ‘local’.

In general, the Tory manifesto is a more serious piece of work, covering all devolved policy areas. However, there is nothing in the document that I can’t see Reform happily adopting as its own.

Values

The fundamental problem for the Tories is that as both they and Reform basically share the same policy programme and values, the deciding factor for voters of that persuasion is who is the political choice in the election most likely to challenge the status quo.

With a 20-point gap between Reform and the Tories as the formal election campaign period begins, it looks like the Conservative Party is in a death spiral in Wales whose effects will be felt way beyond our own borders.

Many Tories in Westminster may well be asking if Kemi Badenoch has the subtlety and skill required to avoid leading the Tories at UK level to a similarly cataclysmic result come the general election.