Who is calling the shots in the Welsh Conservatives?

Emily Price

The opening weeks of Darren Millar’s tenure have been overshadowed by his predecessor Andrew RT Davies with chaotic scenes in the Senedd yesterday which revealed a clear attempt by the fallen leader to undermine the new Tory top dog.

Although it was Millar leading First Minister’s Questions, the session quickly became volatile with politicians across the Chamber already livid following a stunt by Davies at the weekend.

The former leader had shared a misleading video of Welsh school school children from a far-right X account – now under investigation by South Wales Police – who claimed girls were being used to entice migrant men to the UK.

But it later transpired that the video was filmed over a year ago by the children as part of project to welcome Ukrainian refugees to their school.

The footage was withdrawn in 2023 when the school and its pupils were subjected to abuse.

Abuse

I tracked down the original files from the project and found the clip had been carefully selected to not include any male children and omit details about Ukraine.

Davies shared the video after several weeks of relentless posts to his social media channels about the UK Government rape gang scandal.

But despite attempting to portray himself as a crusader for “vulnerable white girls” – he placed a target on the backs of these Welsh children when he recirculated the video for clicks.

Ironically, concerns were raised that the young girls in the clip were being used by a white man to score political points.

Millar was fully aware that Davies had spent the week fanning the flames of prejudice when he stood up in the Chamber during FMQs on Tuesday and raised the grooming gangs scandal with the First Minister.

Thinking he can make a serious political point in the midst of an atmosphere charged with the dog whistle of his predecessor was, quite frankly, ridiculous.

By pursuing questions about the grooming scandal, Millar foolishly responded to an agenda set by Andrew RT Davies.

Cool

As Millar tried to get a handle on the situation by shouting at Labour politicians across the Chamber in an unstatesmanlike manner – Davies sat on the backbenches cool as a cucumber.

And in what appeared to be a case of, anything you can do, I can do better, the former leader took the floor shortly after Millar to press on the same issue.

So what is the purpose of Davies’ behaviour? Is he and his Twitter controller George Carroll just really sore about the fact the Tories ousted them without warning?

In November, hope was on the horizon for a new direction for the Conservatives when the the group came together and discussed the best way to topple Davies and manage his behaviour in the aftermath.

This was second time the failed leader had been removed by his own group – a Conservative source told me that the last time he became a tricky chap to handle once he stood down.

Fallen

Some social media commentators criticised the group for nominating the rejected leader as the new chair of the economy trade and rural affairs committee – a role that comes with a boost for his pay packet.

But, in assigning Davies the position, the group gave him a huge brief that would take up a lot of his time.

If that was the reasoning for the appointment – it has failed spectacularly because from the moment Davies was toppled, he kicked his trademark abrasive style into rampage mode.

Instead of just the usual online posts calling for policies to be “scrapped” with no offer of a Tory alternative, Davies has began to reignite rows from months ago – with issues involving ethnic minorities at the forefront.

In a marked change of tone, his posting has become more frequent, more combative and more erratic with the politician even taking time to send responses back to internet trolls.

‘Stop it’

To anyone criticising his online behaviour, he has responded with demands that they “stop it” and “retract” their comments.

To other commentators making offensive or racist remarks, Davies has responded with friendly replies that verge on joining in.

In a recent Facebook post, one commenter hit out at a Muslim group saying they “worship sky fairies and worse”.

Davies responded to the comment directly saying he planned to “ignore” the concerns that Muslims have about his behaviour.

The Senedd’s only two Muslim MSs, Natasha Asghar and Altaf Hussain, continue to appear to be collateral damage to Davies and his comms team in their quest for clicks.

Silly

In another outlandish social media response, he called on South African tech billionaire Elon Musk to intervene with the Welsh Government on the rape gangs scandal.

While he’s at it, he may as well ask Arnold Schwarzenegger to make sure the Welsh ministers meet their NHS targets.

So is Davies’ race to the bottom a bid to appeal to Reform UK so he can defect? Certainly some – but not all – of my Conservative sources think so.

Several of them say Davies is only really interested in being a political leader – regardless of the party – and therefore isn’t wired to take his place behind Millar.

Some say they feel Millar is showing weakness by not pulling Davies into line and removing the party whip over the school girls video gaffe.

Health

Millar’s job is to hold Labour in the Senedd to account – but what he says in the Chamber carries less weight when he’s letting one of his backbenchers walk all over him.

To me it seemed unusual that the Tories in Wales would raise the matter of grooming gangs yesterday when they had spent weeks pushing health issues.

Millar’s chose to ignore the open goal of a damning cancer report published the morning of FMQs and instead waded into an issue already dominated by Andrew RT Davies.

Labour MSs Lee Waters, Mick Antoniw and Alun Davies had all made calls for the Millar to remove the whip from Davies earlier in the week and many from Plaid were equally disgusted by his online behaviour.

That coupled, with Millar’s questions on rape gangs saw opposition politicians shouting across at the blue side of the room accusing the Tories of being liars and racists.

Uncomfortable

Tom Giffard, Sam Kurtz and James Evans looked particularly uncomfortable as they faced the barrage of accusations and heckles. 

And this is the issue Millar has with uniting his group so that it becomes a serious contender with a credible alternative ahead of the 2026 election.

Whilst he and James Evans are showing up to work a 12 hour shift on a weekend with the Welsh Ambulance Service to see the pressures faced by the NHS – their efforts are being overshadowed by the former leader’s outrageous behaviour.

The Tory comms team – led by Chief of Staff David TC Davies – are churning out press releases on the work of MSs at rocket speed since the appointment of Millar.

But despite this, rows over racism in the Welsh Conservative group are still dominating Welsh media headlines.

Millar and David TC Davies need to rethink their strategy quickly and confront the fact  that Andrew RT Davies is a wrecking ball for the Welsh Conservatives hopes at the 2026 Senedd election.