Why is Reform polarising against Plaid Cymru?
Jonathan Edwards
Last week, Nigel Farage attempted to frame the Senedd election as a straight fight between Reform and Plaid Cymru, who he described as a hard left-wing party.
The latest polls indicate both parties are pulling clear of Labour and the Conservatives, and the Caerphilly by-election result further cemented the new political landscape before us.
It seems an obvious statement for Mr Farage to make therefore and there is nothing new in political parties deliberately choosing a target to polarise against. Both Labour and the Conservatives have historically polarised against each other in a self-serving duopoly.
Despite this I thought the specific signalling out of Plaid Cymru was interesting from a strategic point of view. When I look at the Welsh political battleground, for the most part it seems to me as if Plaid, Labour and the Greens are chasing the same voters. On the other side of the spectrum, you have Reform and the Tories competing.
From this viewpoint, if the primary objective of Reform was to be the largest party next May they need the polar axis made up of Plaid, Labour and the Greens to cancel each other out as much as possible. If their vote share equalises the subsequent seat allocation, this is good news for Reform. Having Plaid and Labour both in the low 20s is much better than one or the other with a clear lead. Again, I emphasise, if the priority for Reform is to win the election.
It could be argued that polarising in this manner is a deliberate aim by Reform to get a slice of the Labour pie – by enticing those Labour voters who oppose Welsh nationalism in their bones to the Reform banner. It is true the Labour Party in Wales has always had two traditions, one staunchly unionist and one pro-devolution.
However, I would guess that most Labour supporters these days given a straight choice between Plaid and Reform would not support Mr Farage.
The strategy therefore seems somewhat high risk with the Senedd election in mind. My suspicion however is that Reform has wider considerations at play. I don’t think for one moment that Reform has a driving ambition to assume responsibility for the Welsh Government. It would be complete implosion territory considering the lack of experience and serious policy programme.
The Senedd election is however a stepping stone for Mr Farage in his real ambition of gaining the keys to 10 Downing Street. A rout against Labour in Wales would undoubtedly help that ambition considering the turmoil it would launch within the wider UK Labour Party.
Recruiting sergeant
Conversely from a Plaid Cymru perspective, Reform polling strongly at both Wales and especially UK level is beneficial. The prospect of a UK Government led by Mr Farage performs as the proverbial recruiting sergeant for Welsh nationalism.
If this theory is correct, then next year’s Welsh national election will play a proxy role in the bigger UK battle for supremacy. I can’t think of another Welsh election that has been so consequential for Westminster politics.
If Labour fall from pole position in Wales, that will be the story of the evening as far as the UK media is concerned – as we saw following Caerphilly. Mr Farage is hedging his bets therefore by polarising against Plaid Cymru. From his point of view it doesn’t matter if Reform win the election, the only thing that is important is that Labour doesn’t.
None of this will worry Plaid. Every time Mr Farage attacks them, they should whoop for joy. It may be the key determining factor that results in Rhun Ap Iorwerth becoming First Minister.
Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24
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PC need to keep pushing the despicable antisemitic hate speech that Farage indulged in his past and get Farage to apologise for his past misdeeds. This is an open goal.
His tactic comes from the fact that a hard left party has not won a general election in his country for over half a century, but in this country the limited tax raising powers mean it’s more possible, especially if it’s required to keep out a hard right party with morals and ethics totally contrary to those we have in Cymru.
There arent any hard left parties. You seem obsessed with anyone left of Blair or Starmer is hard left. Delusional.
The Greens are to the left of Blair and Starmer so what do you call the politics of a party to the left of the Greens, who Corbyn sneered at for not being proper socialists.
Who mentioned Corbyn and his new party? This article is about Plaid and Reform
I think Your Party are up for a BAFTA for Best Comedy.
You did when you wrote “anyone left of Blair”.
So where do they fit if Zack’s New Greens are too right wing for them?
Your Party and The Greens are both clearly hard left. They’re just extremists like Reform and all would ruin Wales/UK.
If they’re the same why don’t they merge to become a genuine political force?
Get a sense of perspective. Neither the Greens or Your Party are anything but pretty mainstream social democratic parties, with Your Party perhaps lacking in credibility. Neither are in any measurable way ‘hard left’ in the way that Reform is not just ‘hard right’ but crypto-fascist. Nigh on half a century of neoliberal nonsense seems to have addled people’s brains to the extent that anything to the left of Keir Starmer is ‘hard left’. Gareth Hughes of the Green Party hit the nail on the head when he reminded us that Ted Heath’s Conservative government of 1973 was more left-wing… Read more »
No. Your Party and The Greens have some very extreme/downright bizarre opinions. Hard left. Undoubtedly. Just as Reform are hard right. And please don’t publish that vile symbol. It’s just not on.
Hard left parties obviously deny being hard left because it hinders their election prospects, remember the hard left have failed to win a UK general election for over half a century.
So they simultaneously claim to be mainstream while attacking real centrists for considering all the electorate.
Even in it’s more socialist days the Labour Party mainstream could hardly have been described as ‘hard left’. In reality both Labour and Conservatives in that era were largely social democrat in practice, both committed to supporting and expanding the welfare state and even competing at one point in supplying the most council housing… (The Tories won that one, in terms of sheer numbers, albeit by reducing standards). Thatcher ended consensus politics in 1979 which largely explains the situation in which we find ourselves today. No truly ‘hard left’ party could win in the UK, and the same goes for… Read more »
In it’s more socialist days Labour hit people for 83% tax on their earnings and 98% of their investment income, to me those figures mean they were hard left.
Because that is where the racist party see their competitor.
Has farage apologised for racist comments he claims were not meant to hurt? Has he looked into gill a bit deeper, or does he know what he will find?
farage is wrecker. Lied about brexit and will drag Wales back to the dark ages. Spouts racist comments, protects people who spout race hate and tried for two years to get race riots going and has a sweet spot for putin.
And now he is in with the far US right religious types who remove women’s rights.
And this.
https://bylinetimes.com/2025/12/02/the-reform-backed-far-right-street-patrols-coming-to-british-school-gates/
Nigel Farage and Reform UK have no interest in Wales. Let’s make this perfectly clear. They are foremost an English far-right party who attract those voters happy to sell Wales out. The kind who voted against devolution in 1997. Don’t take my word for it. Just look at his actions. As the old saying goes. Actions speak louder than words. He as Reform UK leader is happy to interfere in Welsh politics but like most big mouthed cowards doesn’t want himself to run for office by becoming a Senedd member opting to parachute an unelected BritNat bureaucrat like a Russia… Read more »
Farage love publicity: drinking beer, having milkshakes thrown at him etc – all adds to his brand profile. On this website a few months back a Scottish Academic critiqued Brexit and questioned if the voters in Middle England lack a cultural identity. Economically the UKs issues are as a result of Westminster’s policies not Welsh / Scottish / Northetn Ireland – all new administrations, Westminster has governed for decades. Westminster has not devolved powers to Wales and is holding on to decision making; but the impact on Londons economy has not been beneficial. They have not kept London as a… Read more »
Bookies go Even Stevens for Plaid and Reform to get most seats
Reform have taken in a staggering £10.3m donations in the 3rd quarter of 2025.
That includes a single donation of £9m from Christopher Harborne
We are being sold.
Its safe to say they will be throwing everything at Wales even though nigh on impossible for them to get a majority over Plaid/ Labour alignment
That donation is shocking. Why is a so-called “People’s Army” attracting funding from the super rich?
For fairness and transparency, it would be good to know how all the parties are being funded, and to what amount.
Apologies for the clunky URL, but you can find all you want here. Often the information you seek is already available, alll you need to do is search for it.
https://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/Search?currentPage=1&rows=10&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&open=filter&et=pp&isIrishSourceYes=true&isIrishSourceNo=true&date=Accepted&from=2025-07-01&to=2025-09-30&prePoll=false&postPoll=true®ister=ni®ister=gb&optCols=IsIrishSource&optCols=ReportingPeriodName
Oh dear. It’s not very clear is it? Just a list of donations from £34 quid or so upwards…
So Reform is by common consent the “big threat”. If that is really the case the other competing parties need to spell out with greater clarity how they propose to lift our country out of its gutter, not just wish lists but “how we do it” lists which would also contrast with Reform’s vague offering once you strip out its hate lists. Thus far no party has showed much interest in doing anything other than bawling at each other and howling about the Reform threat. Not at all promising, is it?