Why we need a five-year strategy to win over soft unionists
Adam Price
It’s easy to be for independence when you already believe in it.
But if we are serious about growing the movement, not just preaching to it, then we need a focused, strategic effort to reach the people who aren’t quite there yet. The quiet sceptics. The hopeful doubters. The voters who say “Maybe, but not yet.”
In other words: the soft unionists.
They don’t get involved in social media arguments. They don’t use the word ‘indycurious’. They’re not watching the latest constitutional drama like it’s a Netflix series. But they’re open. They’re listening. And in the next five years, they might just decide the future of Wales.
So here’s the challenge: what are we doing to win them over?
A movement that builds, not just believes
We’ve never lacked belief. What we’ve lacked — at times — is a clear, credible path that shows how belief turns into statecraft. As a former Leader of Plaid Cymru, I know how challenging this can be.
That’s why we need a four-year plan not just for government — but for persuasion.
That means:
- Understanding people’s doubts without dismissing them
- Showing we’ve thought through the economics, not just the emotion
- Offering a vision of Wales that isn’t about ‘them vs us’ — but about building something better for everyone
Because the truth is most soft unionists don’t feel British in their bones. They just want stability. They want to know that a Welsh state wouldn’t collapse their pension, spike their mortgage, or isolate them from the wider world.
Five Pillars for a Five-Year Plan
Here’s what a serious strategy to persuade soft unionists could include:
Credible Economic Planning
Don’t shy away from difficult questions. Engage with them. Show your workings. Publish the tax models, the fiscal forecasts, the institutional plans. Don’t wait for someone to ask “How will it work?” Tell them first.
A Future-Oriented Vision
Paint a picture of the country we could become: world-leading on renewables, radical on care, proudly bilingual, digitally savvy, globally connected. Independence isn’t about nostalgia. It’s about the next century.
Local Conversations, National Confidence
This isn’t won through slogans. It’s won through conversations. Town halls, community forums, coffee mornings. Meet people where they are. Build trust face to face.
Coalitions Beyond the Party
Plaid can’t do it alone. The independence movement must feel bigger than Plaid. That means backing a strong civic campaign, amplifying non-party voices, and celebrating indy-supporters in every walk of life, from farmers to footballers.
A Mandate Map
Win local authorities over to independence one by one. Win majorities for indy in membership organisations. Use them to build the case, institution by institution, as building blocks to persuade a majority in the Senedd and the population at large.
Winning Over Means Welcoming In
We’ll never persuade the hardest unionists. But they’re not the audience. The real growth lies in those who like the idea of a better Wales but aren’t yet convinced that independence is the vehicle.
That’s the audience we must speak to, not with defensiveness but with clarity, humility and ambition.
And that takes time. Not one viral video. Not one rally. But a five-year strategy grounded in credibility, kindness, and national confidence.
We don’t need to win everyone. But we do need to win enough.
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A fair article, but if we look at the polling data (in detail), the next 5 years strategy should not focus on soft unionist vote but on the don’t knows first. The soft unionists say no in polling which would be the next step after convincing the don’t knows. This group is dominated by Plaid voters who are against/unsure about indy (about 20-25% in polling) and Lab voters. Those who say don’t know (the indy curious) are overwhelmingly Welsh identifying (rather than British identifying) Lab voters. This group are overwhelmingly women rather than men, under 45 years old and predominantly… Read more »
The Five Pillars sounds great. Could these Pillars be put into a pamphlet? Is there one already? People like to listen but giving them something outlining the economics and the vision would be a really big help.
Adam is always one to think on matters and is ready with ideas. An “idea” is exactly what is needed to win this one … a realistic, realisable, and hopeful idea. That idea is “what replaces the UK?”. If we only talk about independence as the end of the UK, folk mainly balk at the empty space that future conjures – all the usual anxieties (too small, too poor etc) flow from it. If we talk about building a Britain in which a Democratic Welsh State is a key partner, ie a Confederal Union (I can hear John Ball’s urine… Read more »
To me soft Unionists are more than just people who are on the fence – but also those who support Indy but easily get stuck in the mud of Unionist dogma. Plaid sitting in the Lords and Commons are some examples of this; neither house is a place a true Independence supporter – or a party of that disposition should want to attend. The commitment doesn’t have any actual returns either. Between the SNP, SF and Plaid, the weakest there is still the one that sits in both houses. Its a commitment that symbolically undermines our campaign for sovereignty… and… Read more »
One thing that really boils my urine is criticism of Plaid on the basis of specific personal political leanings. Plaid says what it is on the tin so to speak. It cannot be all things to all people. It is what it imperfectly is and cannot ever be anyone’s perfect image of what they want it to be. I was an early member of YesCymru and spoke at an early AGM. I was distressed at the way the organisation was hijacked by partisan political actors. I was further distressed at how the organisation made further very public mistakes. I finally… Read more »
I’ve voted Plaid all my life. I use my vote to support them in Senedd, Westminster and Local election since I’ve been voting. But that’s all that matters right? Put your X in that box and shut up. Never question. Never criticise. Just hope someday that rehash of the same talking points will somehow work. You see putting your X inside that box is only the start of your responsibility; this movement is about demanding better – I do demand better. I demand better from those in government. I demand better from those who rely on my vote. You know… Read more »
We’ll never persuade the hardest unionists. But they’re not the audience. The real growth lies in those who like the idea of a better Wales but aren’t yet convinced that independence is the vehicle.
Very unconvincing…must do better!!!
‘It’s easy to be for independence when you already believe in it. But if we are serious about growing the movement, not just preaching to it, then we need a focused, strategic effort to reach the people who aren’t quite there yet.’ I first moved to live in Wales in 1964, and, back then, the notion that over six thousand Welsh people would turn out to march in support of independence – perhaps least of all in Barry! – would have been inconceivable. I still well recall the general amazement which greeted Gwynfor Evans’s wholly unexpected by-election win in the… Read more »
Very good comment, Mr Ellis. I have often thought of Flintshire in these debates. ‘If’ an independence referendum was ever approved by Westminster, Flintshire would vote 80-90% to stay part of the union. Even if the majority of Wales voted for independence, and irrespective of your personal views, would you want to force it upon areas like this when they vote overwhelmingly against it? We have all seen how divisive the Brexit vote was
Your concluding two sentences still further underline my original point. But of course we’ll only know for sure if an independence referendum were to be held.
“We’ll never persuade the hardest unionists” I’m not sure this is true. Many will have watched in horror as Johnson ripped off their rose-tinted specs and revealed the true malign and incompetent nature of the imperial blob running central government. Worse than that for the die hard unionists, he revealed that it’s not fixable. Because he arrived with an overwhelming democratic mandate to level up the UK. And he left with an even bigger economic gulf between London and the rest of the UK. His reign was both an admission that Whitehall is the problem and a demonstration that it… Read more »
Tend to be sceptical of anyone who talks about long term strategies and visions. They are ten a penny. But he is right about credible economic planning. It’s the big weak spot. What will be interesting is if Plaid jump into bed with hard unionists after the Senedd election. They are called Welsh Labour. If so, forget it.
Depends who’s the junior partner.
Only up to a point. If Plaid win a lot more seats than Labour then yes. If not….
That’s more likely than you think because there’s no alternative for reasonable decent people who are fed up with London Labour ignoring Wales. Lending Plaid their vote even if they’re not pro-indy ensures the Senedd isn’t London Labour’s circus elephant between 2026 and 2029.
You may be right but I’m not yet convinced that Plaid can make the breakthrough in the Valleys.
So what have you been doing up to now. A surge in support for Independence always seems to bring out Plaid with a plan. Oh that it was the other way around.
What’s their plan to ensure Cymru has sufficient hospital facilities for sick people from Wales. At the minute some areas of Cymru are totally reliant on English hospitals. A plan would be nice.
And some areas in England rely on Welsh healthcare services. That’s how most borders work.
Where in England relies on Cymru for healthcare? Borders do not work like there are reciprocal agreements for tourists between countries but you still need insurance of some form.. My understanding is it is 100% one way. At the moment as part of the UK pobol Cymru can access facilities in England. English waiting lists are bad enough. What is Plaid’s plan?
>> In April 2024 there were 13,300 Welsh residents registered with GPs in England and 21,100 English residents registered with GPs in Wales.
Source: https://www.gov.wales/nhs-cross-border-care-between-wales-and-england-2024-html
And English hospitals were full of patients from Wales. People with Welsh related postcodes living in England could avoid paying for prescriptions. The devolved NHS is wealthy enough to forego such payments.
60% of people in England are exempt from prescription charges and 90% of prescription items are dispensed free. It would actually save them money to make it free for the rest but that’s unpopular with Conservative voters.