Why Welsh progressives must unite to stop Reform
Jack Meredith
Reform UK is on the march in Wales. Polling for the 2026 Senedd election suggests that the party could emerge as the largest single force, potentially eclipsing both the Conservatives and, in some scenarios, rivalling Labour and Plaid Cymru.
The prospect should alarm anyone who values devolution, social justice, and Wales’ tradition of progressive politics.
The rise of Reform is not inevitable. But it will only be stopped if the parties of the progressive tradition in Wales; Welsh Labour, Plaid Cymru, and the Welsh Liberal Democrats find ways to cooperate.
Reform thrives on simplicity. Their slogans about immigration, net zero and “common sense politics” are designed to tap into frustration and distrust.
Devolution
They position themselves as the anti-establishment voice, despite offering policies that would hollow out public services, strip away hard-won rights, and potentially lead to a more unequal and less democratic Wales.
For Wales, the danger runs even deeper. Reform’s leadership has shown hostility towards devolution itself. A strong Reform group in the Senedd would not just drag the debate rightwards; it would directly threaten the gains Wales has made in shaping its own future.
We should not underestimate this risk. Across Europe, when populist right-wing parties have surged unchallenged, they have reshaped entire political landscapes; Wales is not immune.
The good news is Wales already has strong progressive traditions to counter this threat. Welsh Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Liberal Democrats disagree on many things; independence, Europe, taxation.
Split
But on the fundamentals, they share more than they admit:
– All three are committed to defending and deepening Welsh devolution.
– All three believe in properly funded public services, including the NHS and education.
– All three support tackling inequality and protecting vulnerable communities.
– All three reject the divisive rhetoric of Reform and the far-right.
There is a common thread here: a belief that Wales is stronger when it invests in fairness, community, and democracy. That thread is important, now more than ever.
Under the new closed-list PR system, the electoral map of Wales will change drastically in 2026.
Competition between progressives risks splitting the vote, handing Reform the
opportunity to dominate seats where their support is concentrated.
Values
Even if Reform does not secure a majority, a large bloc of Reform MSs would have an outsized influence, potentially dominating debates and undermining consensus on issues like climate change and equality, thereby steering the political discourse in a direction that is contrary to the values of most Welsh citizens.
Cooperation does not have to mean formal electoral pacts or mergers. It could be as simple as:
– A shared message that Reform is a danger to Wales’ values.
– Coordinated campaigning on the cost of living, climate change, and NHS waiting
times.
– Avoiding unnecessary hostility between progressives, which only benefits Reform.
If Labour, Plaid and the Lib Dems spend the next year attacking each other more than they challenge Reform, they risk sleepwalking into a disaster.
Wales has been here before. In the 1997 referendum campaign, Labour, Plaid, Lib Dems, and even parts of the Conservatives came together in a broad “Yes” campaign coalition.
That fragile unity delivered the narrow victory that created the National Assembly in the first place.
Rhodri Morgan’s “Clear Red Water” speech in 2002 was another moment where Welsh politics asserted its own identity against Westminster trends.
It showed that Wales could carve a distinct path, resisting the marketisation of public services embraced elsewhere.
Both moments teach us the same lesson: progressives win when they work together.
Action
The rise of Reform is a test of Wales’ political maturity. Do we allow anger and division to fracture our politics, or do we unite around the values that have defined Welsh democracy for a generation?
Labour, Plaid and the Lib Dems will continue to disagree on individual policies. That is healthy for any democracy.
But there is no reason why they cannot come together on what matters most: defending devolution, tackling inequality, and standing against the far-right.
Reform thrives on division. Progressives must answer with cooperation. Failing to do so could see the future of Wales decided by Reform. The choice is stark, and the time to act is now.
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As much as independence is desperately needed in Cymru the bigger threat is Reform. If Reform get anywhere near power or even influence in Cardiff Bay the prospect of an independent country could be put back years or even crushed forever as Cymru is eradicated. This sounds like an overreaction but the scenario is very possible. As the article rightly suggests the left is going to have to work together to defeat Reform. Reform works on a vote from discontentment and fear. The progressive left can counteract this by pledging to work together for the better of Cymru. People want… Read more »
It’s no over reaction, Farage will destroy Welsh democracy and take the Senedd with it, all they want is access to money to help with their assault on Westminster, They don’t give a flying f**k about Wales or the Welsh, and as if that wasn’t bad enough Wales has more than its fair share of idiot anglicised mugs who will vote for their own demise, because small boats and foreigners.
I think that Plaid Cymru would do well to drop any reference to being a progressive party. The term ‘progressive’ will be used by Reform [just as the right has adulterated the true meaning of ‘woke’] to label political parties that describe themselves as ‘progressive’ as being more concerned with immigrants than with the wellbeing and needs of the British or Welsh for their cynical Senedd election purposes. Unfair, untrue but it will get Reform votes. Another reason for Plaid to distance itself from Labour is that this article implies that there should be some sort of informal pact with… Read more »
Uniting what the author calls ‘progressives’ will not halt Reform. What will halt reform is putting forward a clear, effective and credible alternative for Wales. Important that the alternative is not contaminated with the cronyism and corruption of Labour or the wild fantasies of the Greens from England. That merely does damage to the alternative. Reform gets traction from the cosy consensus.
I agree. When people go to the polls, they’re not thinking about the future of the Senedd or democracy in general. Some will be asking themselves why they don’t have a decent home free of damp and a job that pays enough to cover their bills.
If you were a Labour or Tory apparatchik, what would you want from the elections in May 2026? Dismal poll ratings, two leaders and a chancellor who aren’t cutting it with the electorate and need to be replaced. Wouldn’t the best plan for GE victory in Westminster ~2029 or maybe even saving your party from oblivion, be electoral success for Reform? This would hasten the departure of failing leaders. A Reform led government in the Senedd would be handed the opportunity to screw up big time. Wales gets thrown under the bus to save the British establishment!
Welsh Labour progressive? Have you visited the valleys? Old fashioned Labour is a more accurate term to use.
I can only think of Lee Waters, who is no longer there sadly. New ideas in this complacent party are seriously lacking, and the Vaughan Gething saga confirmed how tired it has become.
Ahh yes Lee’s genius of canning ‘old style roadbuilding’ in favour of cycle lanes in Cardiff has endeared him to a few niche groups in the electorate but few in business (or Llanbedr). Visionary. Brave. Blinkered. Another architect of Labour’s demise due to polices that don’t resonate with the electorate and thus their enabling of Reform… Thanks for that.
Before someone mentions the ‘Boriswave’ let’s remember that I, Mab, coined the phrase ‘The Fat Shanks Effect’ several years ago on N.C…
I sympathise with the author; but his labelling of the parties on the left as progressive does not stand up to close examination. They all love the “badge” of course; but Welsh Labour in particular have proved to be anything but progressive (and Plaid to an extent). The track record after 26 years is dismal and truly progressive reforms have been kicked into the long grass e.g. the regressive Council Tax system. Others have made salient points and people will simply look around them and vote accordingly.
The only thing worse than honest regressives openly trashing everything humanity has achieved are those pretending to be progressive. Like Corbyn trying desperately to recreate the 70s.
Its more than just a political thing to stop reform. We need to make it a social thing too.
Wales has its own beautiful culture, one that Reform want to exterminate, along with destroying our language and removing our right to democracy.
People who want to remove these things are as great a threat as any terrorist or serial abuser and they should be treated accordingly in our communities.
While its true that Wales has always had strong community values that are the opposite of what Reform UK offers, unless Labour in Westminster delivers on the economic front for Wales via the HS2 consequentials and Crown Estate devolving to Wales, the economic background for support for Reform in deprived areas will continue to increase.
The term Welsh Labour is false. There is no such party. They just stuck the term Welsh on the front of the name to con us into thinking somehow they’re different. As for deepening Welsh devolution they’ve spent years handing back powers back to Westminster. They do not support “properly funded public services, including the NHS and education” as they cut it and introduced fees. They say tackling inequality and protecting vulnerable communities but do the exact opposite, just funding their mates in the third sector to parachute in consultants and spivs. That’s the reason many start turning to Reform.… Read more »
It’s not just progressives. The entire pro-Wales alliance including moderate conservatives needs to suspend politics as usual in the national interest and temporarily get behind the only Party of Wales to kick the Abolish Wales party into history.
Reform is the New by-political party they need to rebrand again with a new name – Something lke the Reforming Tory party *“You reap what you sow—
> and if you sow contempt,
> don’t expect a harvest of trust.
> Wales isn’t your proving ground,
> it’s a nation with memory,
> and we remember who tried to shrink us
> into someone else’s margins.”*