Will Plaid governing Wales boost or undermine the case for independence?

Jonathan Edwards

Plaid Cymru has historically played a bad political hand well. With no real prospect of winning a Welsh election it has pursued a pressure group strategy for much of its modern existence, using the Labour Party mainly to achieve its overriding ambition as a party to advance the development of Wales as a political nation.

It has also used the Tories in the past in a similar manner, most notably to secure the Welsh Language Act of 1993.

Up until now it has been in a different position to the Scottish National Party in Scotland, that is zeroing in on 20 years of power, a quite remarkable achievement.

Indeed, the success of the SNP has helped Plaid in that the Labour Party in the Senedd as compared to Scotland has played a far cleverer game and protected their flanks from Plaid by Welsh-washing the party, at least publicly.

Those lessons seem to have been ignored under the leadership of Keir Starmer. It’s quite beyond my comprehension why there haven’t been respective Wales and Scotland Bills in the current Parliament to help sell a message of progress before the impending elections.

Under Starmer it feels as if “Welsh” Labour has been reined in, enabling Plaid Cymru to weld the Senedd Labour group to the party in Westminster.

When Eluned Morgan tried to create some space for the Labour Party in the Senedd with her “Red Welsh Way”, it lacked credibility because by now the people of our country have cottoned on to the fact that “Welsh” Labour is deeply wedded to a London central command and funding structure.

It currently looks like Plaid Cymru is about to do an SNP in 2007 and form the government for the first time, thereby occupying the highest political office in our country. The SNP has achieved many great successes in their two decades of power.

Considering that both the SNP and Plaid Cymru are mission parties, perhaps the most important from the SNP’s perspective is that, quite amazingly, support for independence has strengthened during their tenure in office.

The latest poll places Yes in the lead by six points. In other words, all the years in office have not undermined support for the party’s key objective.

This has kept the party united and the wider national movement believing that the SNP continues to be the vehicle to achieve the ultimate aim.

2014 referendum

The SNP has been aided by the 2014 referendum on independence. Even though the vote was lost, it realigned politics in Scotland and those divisions remain as alive today as they were then.

It has also been aided by the Barnett formula, which is extremely generous to Scotland. This has enabled a host of popular expensive commitments such as free tuition fees and the £28.20 per week Scottish Child Payment.

They also have high calibre politicians and a Civil Service that views itself as a national executive as opposed to a branch office of Whitehall. An incoming Plaid government is not going to be facing the same situation.

Based on the latest poll I can find, support for independence in Wales is nowhere near the level in Scotland. However, when compared to what the poll ratings were prior to Brexit, they are stratospheric.

Some Plaid Cymru activists believe the mission (of Welsh independence) is more important than the party. When I represented the party in Westminster that was very much my view.

The current Plaid leadership will surely have it in the back of their minds that to sustain themselves in power and avoid internal strife they are going to have to keep the fires burning on the constitutional question or risk displacement from Welsh nationalists who will be impatient to see a Plaid-led government delivering progress.

If it is perceived that Plaid are kicking the constitutional question into the long grass, as it appears with the party’s pre-election positioning, the Plaid leadership risks problems.

Could the next few years provide an opportunity for challenger nationalist parties or especially the Greens, who have the advantage of being a party capable of winning at UK level and therefore could plausibly fight the next general election promising a far-reaching Government of Wales Bill?

Opinion polls

Senior Plaid figures will be very interested in two sets of opinion polls – traditional political party polls and attitudes towards constitutional advancement. If support for independence begins to tank to pre-Brexit levels then the 5th Floor of Ty Hywel will quickly resemble a pressure cooker.

Here I suspect that events in Scotland will once again help Plaid Cymru. It looks like there will be a clear pro-independence majority in Scotland next month (as there could be in Wales if the Greens do well). First Minister John Swinney believes that will be a mandate to ask the big question in 2028. Power remains in Westminster whether another referendum can be held, which means that we can expect a major constitutional stand-off.

If I understand the game plan properly, this will lead to the next general election being fought based on a de facto referendum in Scotland. How exactly that will work is not the point: the key consideration is that the build-up to the next general election in Scotland will be fought on independence and that will inevitably impact on our politics in Wales, as it will in England where surely Reform will seek to exploit developments.

I expect an SNP Scottish Government and Plaid-led Welsh Government to work very closely in pincering Labour in Westminster, who will probably be preoccupied with the Reform challenge in England.

Furthermore, if the new Welsh Government finds itself losing public support on its domestic agenda, then Westminster-bashing will be its default fall-back position.

In politics the rule is to shape events or they shape you. A Plaid Cymru government will need to react to the constitutional turmoil that is soon to hit the UK.

Clearly Plaid are not going to go into the next general election promising a de facto referendum. However they are going to have to come up with a plan as to where they place the Welsh Government.

Their approach should be to never leave a good crisis go to waste – otherwise the danger is it will consume them.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 2010-24