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Opinion

Will the Lib Dems be Senedd kingmakers in 2026?

19 Sep 2024 5 minute read
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey arriving on stage to give his keynote speech at the party’s autumn conference at the Brighton Centre in Brighton. Photo Gareth Fuller/PA Wire

Jonathan Edwards

Party conferences after an election can go one of two ways. Delegates can either be feeling happy about matters and the focus is on how to move forwards. Or they can be a gathering of the wounded where a week of deep introspection awaits.

The Liberal Democrats’ conference in Brighton this week after having returned 72 MPs in July is certainly the former.

The Lib Dems are an interesting party in that its center ground position gives it genuine strategic flexibility. It has often found itself in positions to wield considerable influence with far reaching consequences, depending on decisions taken by the party at the time.

I offer three examples from my own experience where different decisions by the party would have radically altered the history of Wales and the UK.

Firstly, the failed Rainbow Coalition of 2007; secondly the decision following the 2010 general election to turn down a deal to keep Gordon Brown as Prime Minister and instead form a coalition with the Conservatives; and lastly the decision during the paralysis of the 2017-19 Westminster Parliament to go for a snap election (with the SNP and Labour) instead of holding out for a second EU referendum.

Looking to the 2026 Senedd election, perhaps the most important of the three to focus on is the implications of the events following the National Assembly elections held on May 3 2007. Labour had won only 26 of the 60 Senedd seats: there was therefore the only real opportunity to date for a non-Labour administration in Wales.

Rainbow Coalition

The leadership of Plaid Cymru, the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats had agreed on a programme of government with ministers from the three parties and Ieuan Wyn Jones as First Minister.

Plaid Cymru had its own internal difficulties in relation to the so-called Rainbow Coalition. I was a young optimist at the time and had my own reservations founded on a deep belief that the party could break through with one last heave.

The real spanner in the works however came from the Liberal Democrats who rejected the deal at a special conference. One month later the One Wales Government was formed between Labour and Plaid Cymru and the pattern of various forms of Labour rule has continued ever since.

Would a Rainbow government have broken Wales’ seeming acceptance of the inevitability of Labour rule? Who knows. The reality of this decision however is that it has made it difficult to imagine a situation in Wales in which there will ever be a non-Labour led Welsh government for as long as Labour are challenged by the current opposition parties.

If you look at the history of devolution, Labour’s successful management of the Welsh political chess board has left it unassailable. All alternative options to their rule have been closed off unless voting habits radically alter. The opposition parties deep in their hearts know when entering elections that they are not going to overtake Labour. Welsh politics in the devolution age has been an oasis of stasis in more ways than one.

Much commentary from Brighton has concentrated on where Ed Davey takes the Lib Dems from here. Do they continue to focus on attacking the Tories or do they aim some of their guns on Labour as the UK governing party? The Liberal Democrats’ strategy at UK level understood that their best bet was jumping on the coat-tails of the Labour ‘change’ narrative in seats where they were the most obvious challenger to Tory incumbents. Furthermore, they understand that taking chunks out of Keir Starmer and his administration is an act of self-mutilation as a Tory revival in the polls endangers their gains in July.

Creative

However, in a Welsh context the strategy employed by the Liberal Democrats at UK level doesn’t work. Quite simply there are not enough Tory/Lib Dem marginals. In July it only yielded one seat in Wales where David Chadwick captured the new seat of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. With the Senedd election in mind, Jane Dodds and her team are going to have to be more creative.

The D’Hondt electoral system isn’t the easiest to decipher; however the Lib Dems are going to have to improve their poll ratings if they are to achieve the minimum threshold required for a seat in the new Senedd constituencies. Their success in England last July was based on clever targeting of constituencies, and their strategists need to employ similar informed decision making for 2026 as opposed to a blanket approach.

Headwinds

Quite frankly it’s anyone’s guess what results we can expect in the next Senedd election. My feeling is that despite the gale force headwinds facing the Labour Party, the fact that voters will only cast one vote is likely to help them.

If they fall short of a majority the Lib Dems could be serious players in the next Parliament if they can cobble together enough seats.

The challenge for them is how to achieve such an outcome when their core strategic position prohibits outright opposition to the governing party of the day, as essentially their only route to power relies on coming to a post-election agreement which keeps that party in power.

Jane Dodds for Deputy First Minister anyone?

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 2010-24.


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Owain Morgan
Owain Morgan
15 days ago

Yet again someone from Plaid Cymru, or aligned with them, misrepresents the facts of what happened in the Welsh Lib Dems with regards to the proposed Rainbow Coalition. The facts are that the Rainbow Coalition agreement was put to the NEC of the Welsh Lib Dems, where four members voted in favour and four against, this left the Party President and chair of the committee with a conundrum because he wasn’t allowed to be the tie breaker under the rules in place. The wider membership then took it upon themselves to organise a special conference. At the conference the Welsh… Read more »

Owain Morgan
Owain Morgan
15 days ago

There was me thinking that Johnathan Edwards wasn’t a member of Plaid Cymru anymore, but it’s obvious where his loyalty still lies as this article is a hatchet job on the Lib Dems. I wonder why?! Could it possibly be because the polls for the next Welsh General Election suggest that while Plaid Cymru is going to do very well, they’ll fall short of overtaking Welsh Labour. So, suggesting that the Lib Dems will support Labour may encourage voters to vote for Plaid, or others, instead if they don’t want Labour to continue in Government. FTR the poll at the… Read more »

Rob
Rob
15 days ago

I vote Plaid first and foremost but in a UK context I was happy that the Lib Dems made huge gains at the last election, and if I lived in Powys or rural England I would vote for them. I find this “I can never forgive the Lib Dems for going into coalition with the Tories” attitude by some on the the left absolutely infuriating! Yes Clegg made a huge mistake, but he is gone and not coming back! Compared to both Labour and the Tories, the Lib Dems are more pro-Europe, pro-devolution and pro-electoral reform. I would much rather… Read more »

Owain Morgan
Owain Morgan
15 days ago
Reply to  Rob

I agree with you. That said I would never tell a person who was a student at the time of the 2010 UK General Election who campaigned for a Lib Dem candidate, that signed up to the ‘pledge’ that their feelings and corresponding assertions aren’t. I personally campaigned for one of the minority of Lib Dem Westminster candidates who didn’t sign the ‘pledge’, precisely because it would be foolish to do so, not knowing the state of the public finances and realising that the Browne Review would reccomend tuition fee rises. Furthermore, if the Lib Dems were going to be… Read more »

John Ellis
John Ellis
14 days ago
Reply to  Rob

Agree. For me as a former Lib Dem member, back in the day when I was living in England – their mistake wasn’t entering coalition with the Tories at Westminster in 2010 because the parliamentary numbers made a deal with Labour practically unfeasible – simply because there weren’t enough Labour and Lib Dem MPs to commend a Commons majority.

The mistake – serial and ultimately disastrous for them – was the catastrophically inept performance of Clegg and Huhne after they’d formed the coalition.

Mr. Sneeze
Mr. Sneeze
14 days ago

Eventually we’ll look back at the ConDem coalition as the beginning of a new era of grown up UK governance. Clearly there’s plenty more bumps in the road, tantrums and toys to be thrown out of the pram before we actually get there. In the meantime it falls to the Senedd to keep leading the charge.

Last edited 14 days ago by Mr. Sneeze
Jeff
Jeff
14 days ago

If only a deal with Gordon Brown had been on offer in 2010 – of course Jonathan knows it wasn’t and is engaging in partisan spin. Labour didn’t even have the ability to deliver their own MPs let alone the required acquiescence of minor parties like Plaid and the SNP to try and make it to the goal of 326. The choice Clegg and company had was – coalition with the Tories, or letting the Tories coast along for a bit as a minority (we saw what happens then with Boris) or perhaps like Theresa May, cut a deal with… Read more »

John Ellis
John Ellis
14 days ago
Reply to  Jeff

Spot on. A Lab/Lib Dem coalition in 2010 was never on, because (a) the combined strength of Labour and Lib Dem MPs is the Commons was insufficient to command a majority, and (b) because there were too many Labour MPs who in any case appeared to prefer opposition after defeat rather than seeking, somehow, to try to scratch together a coalition sufficient to form a government with a majority.

John Ellis
John Ellis
14 days ago

‘Will the Lib Dems be Senedd kingmakers in 2026?’
On balance, given the voting history of most Welsh folk in recent times, I still think probably not!

Áile
Áile
13 days ago

I will be eligible to vote here in 2026 and I was considering Plaid Cymru or Liberal Democrat’s as the best alternative s to the authoritarian and cruel ty of Labourand Conservatives. But if they would enter formal coalition with either of those awful parties, what would be the point?

Owain Morgan
Owain Morgan
13 days ago
Reply to  Áile

The Senedd will be elected entirely by proportional representation in 2026 therefore it’s Coalition or Minority Government. It will be virtually impossible for anyone to gain outright majority on there own. In fact despite Labour’s dominance of Welsh politics under the hybrid electoral system that has been in place they have never won 31 out of 60 seats in the Senedd.

Gwern Gwynfil
Gwern Gwynfil
13 days ago
Reply to  Áile

A good showing from Plaid, a stronger and revived Welsh Liberal party and a foothold for the Greens in 2026 paves the way for those three parties to potentially have a majority coalition in 2030

But this only happens if there’s a Welsh Liberal revival, some maturity from the Greens and a collective campaign across Welsh politics to engage the majority who do not currently cast their vote in Senedd elections

There’s a lot to do – be part of it

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