Will the next Senedd last the full term?

Jonathan Edwards

I would imagine most readers, activists and candidates are delighted the Senedd election is finally upon us.

For those candidates putting in maximum effort, campaigns are physically and mentally unforgiving. I am not too proud to admit that I would mentally crash after every election I organised or contested.

I suffered several deep depressions in their aftermath as the pressure was released from fighting a marginal constituency when momentum was against my party.

I suppose the pressure would be less under the new system: most lead candidates for their respective parties will know if they will get elected or not based on the polls. However, I do not want to demean the anguish candidates face.

Politics is unforgiving these days and completely relentless and toxic.

If I can give one piece of advice to those newly elected, give your social media accounts to your communication specialist and don’t engage.

Follow the advice of Mark Twain: “Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.”

I understand we are living in the age of shock-attention politics, but if you want to go down that road, leave it to a professional communications person to lead the charge. Don’t get personally invested.

For those masochists among us who live for elections, I have good news for you. The Welsh local government election campaign will soon be upon us – probably the most important county council elections in Welsh political history.

Will the Senedd realignment become entrenched or is it a one-off?

Furthermore, if the Prime Minister falls because of the drubbing Labour is about to face, then the next general election could also be held far sooner than planned.

If all that isn’t enough, the next Welsh Government is likely to be highly unstable. The seventh Senedd therefore might be the first one that doesn’t serve its full term.

Last week I looked at a Plaid minority administration and concluded that such a Welsh government would be vulnerable on several fronts.

Any coalition or understanding involving Labour is also likely to be highly unstable.

When the election hangover has passed, Labour is going to realise quickly that the next two sets of elections will determine if the party can ever recover from the Senedd result. Another trouncing in local government elections would wipe out its activist base. And if their Westminster cohort is obliterated, as current polls indicate, then it could be curtains for the party in Wales.

Bitterness

Faced with that reality, and a leadership election at Senedd level, I would suspect that a candidate arguing for a full-frontal attack on Plaid Cymru is more likely to chime with the bitterness the party faithful will be feeling deep in their bones.

Furthermore, as I have previously argued, power within the party will swing decisively to Labour MPs.

Westminster will provide the perfect platform for attacks on the Welsh Government, which will be reliant on four Plaid MPs to man the barricades. Good luck to them!

Labour Senedd Members, I have no doubt, will want to stop a Reform government in Wales, but after that Plaid Ministers shouldn’t expect any favours. Even if Plaid offer Labour a formal coalition, I am not convinced Labour will take it.

Readers may want to delve further by having a look at the latest article by former Labour Minister Leighton Andrews on his Substack.

If Reform wins most seats in the election, I have seen some thinkers that I admire like Syd Morgan from Plaid and ex-MP Gwynoro Jones argue that Plaid Cymru should not contest the First Ministership (I have no idea if both are playing devil’s advocate).

I have had similar thoughts, and if I was still involved in the big game this is certainly an argument I would be putting forward for full consideration.

Danger

There is enormous danger to the whole devolution project in depriving the leading party of the first opportunity to lead the government, especially a disruptive force such as Reform. Why give them the grievance narrative they crave of a stolen election which will be used relentlessly to de-legitimise the Senedd?

There are those who retort that an understanding of parties with a bigger vote share provides legitimacy. That argument may work for the politically engaged, I am not as convinced that your normal person in the pub will see matters in the same way.

I suspect the Reform narrative of a left-wing Welsh establishment stitch-up will prove more persuasive.

The other main argument for the progressive bloc in favour of allowing Reform to lead our country should they come top, is that they will inevitably be completely out of their depth.

The shambles they will make of things, as the argument goes, will deflate the Reform bubble in Wales.

The danger is that Reform may well hand over the running of the country to the civil service and concentrate on a few populist headline grabbing measures. They will surely know that the combined opposition would be hell bent on bringing them down.

My instinct is that a Reform-led government would not be very stable. I can’t see how Plaid, Labour, the Greens and the Lib Dems would ever support a Reform-led Budget which would propose slashing public investment to fund their income tax promise. If they couldn’t pass a bBudget, a Reform administration would instantly be in crisis mode.

If the seat allocation falls as expected I can’t see the progressive bloc of parties supporting such a strategy.

Commitment

Plaid and Labour for all their faults have a deep commitment to Welsh public services and there is no way they are going to allow Reform anywhere near them if there is a way of stopping such an eventuality.

The Plaid leadership would also face mutiny within its own ranks if it was seen that they did not stop Reform when they could have. This is especially true since the Plaid campaign has morphed from offering change to stopping the enemy at the gates. Also, failure to do everything to stop Reform by Plaid when they had the chance would be perfect ammunition for Labour to stage a comeback amongst progressive voters come the next Senedd election.

The only really stable outcome I can see from the likely results is an understanding between Plaid and the Greens. So far only one poll has indicated that both parties combined could get over the 49-seat threshold.

If they get the numbers, Plaid and the Greens will seek to replicate the successful partnership between the SNP and the Greens in Scotland.

Remember also, the first Green MP elected to Westminster was of course done so on a joint ticket with Plaid when the great Cynog Dafis was elected to serve Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire in 1992.

Will there be tensions and drama? Yes of course. Agriculture and Plaid’s policy on electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure would be potential flashpoints.

However, the parties are ideologically aligned in how they see the world. They served together in the same group in the European Parliament for many years.

Functioning government

A Plaid-Green deal therefore to me seems the most likely route to a stable functioning government in the next Senedd. It is however likely that the numbers will fall to enable such an eventuality.

Which means that once the votes are cast the political parties will be thinking about what happens if the next Senedd doesn’t go the full term.

As someone who served in two highly unstable Westminster parliaments, I can inform Nation readers that once strategic minded politicians start thinking like that, the narrative forming for the next Senedd election will already be underway.

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 2010-2024