Will the Prime Minister Back the First Minister?

Jonathan Edwards

Eluned Morgan’s speech to the Institute for Government calling for a new Constitutional Reform Act deserves to be taken seriously, not least by unionist politicians.

If the polls are correct both Wales and Scotland will vote in favour of secessionist parties in May.

There has been precious little commentary in Westminster circles yet about how having nationalist parties in charge in both Wales and Scotland is going to change the dynamics of the constitutional debate in the UK, not least in England where an openly English nationalist party in the shape of Reform will surely look to inflame public opinion on the other side of Offa’s Dyke.

The First Minister’s proposals follow in the tradition of ‘Welsh’ Labour who since Brexit embraced a model of radical devolution for the UK.

The First Minister’s speech this week puts some flesh on the bones of the argument. I was particularly pleased to see her advance the call for an independent oversight adjudicator to preside over funding allocations within the UK.

If readers will forgive me one moment of self-indulgence, I presented a bill in the House of Commons in 2019 calling for the establishment of an Office for Fair Funding to be responsible for allocating financial resources within the UK and to arbitrate disputes between the so-called devolved administrations and the Treasury.

What the First Minister is advancing sounds remarkably similar: the creation of a body that ensures the Treasury no longer acts as both judge and jury.

The rest of the proposed Constitutional Reform Act aims to address a range of other nationalist grievances, calling for the devolution of rail infrastructure, the Crown Estates and policing.

It goes far further than the Brown Commission report on the future of the UK which formed the basis of the Labour manifesto for the last general election.

The speech was classic ‘Welsh’ Labour strategy of planting their tanks on Plaid Cymru’s lawn, which has proven so effective in the devolution age. However, I don’t think Plaid Cymru strategists will be so worried this time as they may have been in the past.

The political situation today is drastically different, with Plaid Cymru storming ahead in the polls and Labour plummeting to just 10%. The First Minister’s positioning alone therefore is highly unlikely to change the dial as far as the forthcoming election is concerned.

For this reason, it seems to me that the First Minister has used this speech to put forward a set of demands to her Labour colleagues in the UK Government about the sort of package she requires to give her a fighting chance come the election in May.

Westminster

The changes that the First Minister requires can only be delivered at Westminster level. If the Prime Minister doesn’t endorse the proposals by the First Minister, it leaves the risk of the Labour Government in Wales looking impotent, which surely Plaid Cymru will exploit to the maximum.

The fact that a Plaid First Minister would face the same problem, if not worse, is neither here nor there for now. Eluned Morgan in making this speech has potentially created a rod for her own back unless Keir Starmer throws his weight behind her.

If the Prime Minister was in the mood for wanting to help the Labour Senedd and Holyrood campaigns, he would say that he is on board but will only work with Labour administrations in Edinburgh and Cardiff to deliver on the rhetoric of a UK partnership of equals. Considering the political age we live in, most people wouldn’t bat an eyelid at such partisan tactics.

Labour MPs

The Prime Minister is likely to be receiving completely different messages from his cohort of Labour MPs based in Welsh constituencies, most of whom probably think the paltry Brown recommendations were a step too far.

On this point, if Labour loses heavily as expected in May the internal post mortem process is likely to be savage. Perhaps the First Minister is already planting a flag for those battles ahead where there will be a battle for Labour’s political soul in Wales, not least on where it stands on Welsh political powers.

The danger for those in nationalist circles in our country is that a heavy Senedd defeat for Labour reducing the group in Cardiff to a rump will lead to power swinging decisively to the MPs. It is not difficult to see the Labour Party in Wales moving to a more devo-sceptic position.

The First Minister has inadvertently set a series of challenges with her speech. Firstly, does the Prime Minister back her and the Labour Senedd campaign in Wales or not?

Perhaps more importantly, how do those in the Labour Party who believe in the cause of Welsh political nationhood react if the First Minister is ignored, and if as I fear the Labour party moves to a more openly anti-devolution position after May?

Jonathan Edwards was the MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010-24