Will They Ever Learn?
Ben Wildsmith
The Caerphilly by election captured UK-wide headlines as Plaid’s victory seemed to put the brakes on Reform UK’s momentum whilst confirming the dire trouble that Labour finds itself in here.
Anyone with a passing interest in politics recognises that Labour losing the South Wales valleys represents more than an interesting moment. It is the passing of an era.
You might think, then, that Labour itself would be taking care not to repeat the mistakes made during that campaign as it attempts to navigate the upcoming Gorton and Denton by election in Manchester.
So, imagine my surprise when this cropped up on my X feed yesterday, courtesy of Labour’s official account.
Gorton and Denton is a straight fight between Labour and Reform UK.
The Greens aren’t in this race. pic.twitter.com/3PQSHkfn5F
— The Labour Party (@UKLabour) January 28, 2026
At first glance, I wondered if I had hallucinated this. It looks very familiar, I thought. So, I scrolled back to October for confirmation.
It wasn’t Einstein who noted that insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results, that apparently came from a mystery writer called Rita Mae Brown (me neither).
What really is a mystery is why the derision and annoyance caused by falsely misrepresenting voting intentions in Caerphilly hasn’t given Labour pause for thought in Manchester.
It is exactly this sort of dishonest, taking-us-for-mugs politicking that people have come to despise about a party that is supposed to be of the people it purports to serve.
Welsh Labour MPs were briefed earlier this month about the party’s position in Wales. That briefing came from Joe Lock, General Secretary of Welsh Labour, who despite overseeing the Caertastrophe (© B. Wildsmith2026) is still presumably better placed to gauge the mood of the Welsh public than the MPs elected to serve us.
Better times were ahead; we were promised. With Labour ‘at both ends of the M4’ the Senedd would be freed to address the social problems that have accrued during all those years of Tory austerity.
In office, however, we have seen the Welsh PLP backing the austerity measures taken by Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer. The Welsh contingent, in fact, are notable Starmer loyalists with several close to the Prime Minister and the members for Cardiff West and Swansea West seemingly handpicked by him.
Purged
The extent to which radicalism has been purged from Labour in South Wales was demonstrated over Reeves’ abortive plans to cut PIP payments last year. Of the Welsh PLP, only Henry Tufnell of Mid & South Pembrokeshire and Steve Witherden of Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr joined the backbench rebellion.
The social conscience of Labour is now confined to areas that have no connection to the trade union movement which drove the party in its pomp, and which current MPs often seek to evoke without the slightest intention of emulating.
Cuts to PIP would have been devastating in Valleys communities where their uptake is above the national average. Labour MPs who represent these communities sat on their hands whilst others risked political capital and successfully forced a U-turn. It is this quiescence, careerism, and complacency that has incensed Labour voters and threatening them with Reform UK to keep them loyal is as daft as it is insulting.
Contempt
Baroness Morgan, having experienced the contempt in which UK Labour holds her office, has belatedly tried to put some distance between her Welsh branch and the Westminster party. She recently refused to endorse Starmer as a good Prime Minister, attempting to appeal as a distinct, more progressive entity.
That’s for the birds. Labour ‘at both ends of the M4’ has been less a joyful union than a regrettable spitroast. Arguments the party made in opposition, such as compensatory payments for English rail projects, are now dismissed out of hand by Welsh MPs whose careers depend on ignoring the interests of those who elected them.
The entitlement of Labour’s representatives in post-industrial constituencies is exhausted. Caerphilly made the history books in a Welsh context, and the same issues will likely see Gorton & Denton make them for the North of England.
Will they ever learn?
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Torsten Bell is representing Swansea West and is new to politics. He is highly critical of farmers on his social media account, I’m not aware of him bringing any major employer to Swansea to create well-paid jobs and is leading pension reform – so what value is he to Swansea?
So many politicians are not focused on the economy / detached from their constituents.
Excellent! By the way, we were encouraged (trained?) to laugh at Comical Ali, Iraq’s minister of information during the Iraq war as the country visibly collapsed around him. Wiki – “When asked where he obtained his information, he replied, “Authentic sources—many authentic sources”. I read that after the war US intelligence said he wasn’t lying, he actually believed the garbage fed to him by his superiors and his contemporaries. The necessary fiction. And here WE are now, the Welsh and British Labour, comically collapsing, desperately saying it ain’t so. Not so superior after all.
Was! How the mighty have fallen!
The one Labour candidate who might have taken the seat and possibly offered Labour a different trajectory is blocked. So I think Labour will be extinguished. The question is by whom, can the opposition vote coalesce around an anti reform candidate? I hope so.
Meanwhile a new entrant on x has emerged Plaid Cymru Exposed .
I guess the idea is to counter the excellent Reform Party Exposed which digs deep and then deeper again .
They are already running out of content
They seem to think they have struck media gold finding out Nation Cymru might be inclined to be supportive Plaid Cymru 😂
Feel free to chalenge their negative spinning on x at every juncture
Ben the problem with this article is the fact that the only opinion poll so far for this by-election, carried out by Find Out More, has Reform on 36% Labour on 33% and the Greens on a distant 21%.
A sample size of only 100. To be of any use an opinion poll has to be over a 1000 or better still 2000. The criteria for the sample in the dodgy poll was decided by GBNews and the Reform candidate is a journalist for them.
Maybe but please let me know where the Greens are shown to be doing better than Labour in the constituency and Labour not the main challengers to Reform?
Electoral Calculus posted this graph recently.
So you are pointing to a more out of date poll that not sure was even undertaken as a constituency specific poll.
The Labour Party are tying to treat Manchester like they already did in Swansea and Cardiff. Any Labour Party members in these fine cities are not allowed to select their own native candidate for election. This will be provided as the ‘chosen one’ by Kier Starmer. A flunky.
Labour as we knew it is finished in Wales and UK, we have had lies after lies fed by more lies from both,it.is abhorrently disgusting as to what they have done both to Wales and UK s People’s, I hate reform just as much,my intentions for Vite Wales is Plaid Cymru.
A sample size of 143 is hardly statistically valid. It is hard to draw any clear conclusions from a poll that showed 49 people favoured Reform, 46 supported Labour and 29 backing the Greens.
Useful summary of a trend that has been gathering force for a very long time. What, I wonder, is the author’s view of the Welsh Office?
I grew up in south Manchester, subsequently moved to Wales, but then returned and spent thirty years living in districts bordering the Gorton and Denton constituency. My ‘take’ is that if Andy Burnham had been chosen as the candidate, Labour’s chances of retaining the seat would have been high, because his record as metro-mayor has given him a high profile right across Greater Manchester and has made him very popular. At the last mayoral election he won by a very substantial margin. But as it is, Labour has selected a Manchester city councillor as their candidate, who may have some… Read more »
They have lots of majority to spare and losing this seat to Reform is small potatoes to losing the Manchester mayor to Reform.
The real test in this by-election is whether Labours left-left can get behind the Greens to help turn them into a powerful anti-Reform party or if they’ll split that vote by backing Corbyn.
If the Greens don’t win this a Reform-led government in 2029 is a very real possibility.