Will They Ever Learn?

Ben Wildsmith

The Caerphilly by election captured UK-wide headlines as Plaid’s victory seemed to put the brakes on Reform UK’s momentum whilst confirming the dire trouble that Labour finds itself in here.

Anyone with a passing interest in politics recognises that Labour losing the South Wales valleys represents more than an interesting moment. It is the passing of an era.

You might think, then, that Labour itself would be taking care not to repeat the mistakes made during that campaign as it attempts to navigate the upcoming Gorton and Denton by election in Manchester.

So, imagine my surprise when this cropped up on my X feed yesterday, courtesy of Labour’s official account.

Gorton and Denton is a straight fight between Labour and Reform UK.

The Greens aren’t in this race. pic.twitter.com/3PQSHkfn5F

— The Labour Party (@UKLabour) January 28, 2026

At first glance, I wondered if I had hallucinated this. It looks very familiar, I thought. So, I scrolled back to October for confirmation.

It wasn’t Einstein who noted that insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results, that apparently came from a mystery writer called Rita Mae Brown (me neither).

What really is a mystery is why the derision and annoyance caused by falsely misrepresenting voting intentions in Caerphilly hasn’t given Labour pause for thought in Manchester.

It is exactly this sort of dishonest, taking-us-for-mugs politicking that people have come to despise about a party that is supposed to be of the people it purports to serve.

Welsh Labour MPs were briefed earlier this month about the party’s position in Wales. That briefing came from Joe Lock, General Secretary of Welsh Labour, who despite overseeing the Caertastrophe (© B. Wildsmith2026) is still presumably better placed to gauge the mood of the Welsh public than the MPs elected to serve us.

Better times were ahead; we were promised. With Labour ‘at both ends of the M4’ the Senedd would be freed to address the social problems that have accrued during all those years of Tory austerity.

In office, however, we have seen the Welsh PLP backing the austerity measures taken by Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer. The Welsh contingent, in fact, are notable Starmer loyalists with several close to the Prime Minister and the members for Cardiff West and Swansea West seemingly handpicked by him.

Purged

The extent to which radicalism has been purged from Labour in South Wales was demonstrated over Reeves’ abortive plans to cut PIP payments last year. Of the Welsh PLP, only Henry Tufnell of Mid & South Pembrokeshire and Steve Witherden of Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr joined the backbench rebellion.

The social conscience of Labour is now confined to areas that have no connection to the trade union movement which drove the party in its pomp, and which current MPs often seek to evoke without the slightest intention of emulating.

Cuts to PIP would have been devastating in Valleys communities where their uptake is above the national average. Labour MPs who represent these communities sat on their hands whilst others risked political capital and successfully forced a U-turn. It is this quiescence, careerism, and complacency that has incensed Labour voters and threatening them with Reform UK to keep them loyal is as daft as it is insulting.

Contempt

Baroness Morgan, having experienced the contempt in which UK Labour holds her office, has belatedly tried to put some distance between her Welsh branch and the Westminster party. She recently refused to endorse Starmer as a good Prime Minister, attempting to appeal as a distinct, more progressive entity.

That’s for the birds. Labour ‘at both ends of the M4’ has been less a joyful union than a regrettable spitroast. Arguments the party made in opposition, such as compensatory payments for English rail projects, are now dismissed out of hand by Welsh MPs whose careers depend on ignoring the interests of those who elected them.

The entitlement of Labour’s representatives in post-industrial constituencies is exhausted. Caerphilly made the history books in a Welsh context, and the same issues will likely see Gorton & Denton make them for the North of England.

Will they ever learn?