Winds of change Cymru

Gwern Gwynfil

Remember the song ‘Winds of Change’ by The Scorpions? This was the anthem of the end of the Cold War, as walls fell, the Iron Curtain crumbled away, and nation after nation across Eastern Europe threw off their Soviet, authoritarian, socialist shackles.

Some of you may know that there is a tentative Welsh connection here – the Scorpions lead guitarist briefly owned Plas Tanybwlch, a large early Victorian mansion just outside Aberystwyth.

Sadly, we have yet to find the anthem to herald and accompany the enormous change that’s coming to Wales in May next year. It is certain that the century long Labour Party dominance in our nation is coming to an end.

But as with the rapid and precipitous fall of the Berlin Wall and Iron Curtain, most people have yet to grasp the enormity of the change, some persist in a state of denial (especially across parts of the Labour movement), others foresee a prospect of ‘business as usual’ but with a slightly different brand.

For those willing to seize the moment there is a much more enticing prospect of deep change.

Plaid Cymru Ascendant

 Let’s start with Plaid Cymru, partly because they are topping the polls, but mostly because, for the first time in their history, they really do look like a government in waiting. Their publication some months ago ‘Making Wales Work’ deserves credit for being a well researched, relatively comprehensive, and reasonably coherent plan.

It clearly sets out their approach, some of their goals, and some well thought out policy proposals. Crucially, these are designed in the round, as a package for long term change within the confines of devolved powers, and not as single issue short term crowd pleasers.

This level of maturity alone differentiates Plaid from every other party in Wales right now. Whether you support them or not, this should be acknowledged, recognised, and praised. I personally would like to see other parties stepping up and also delivering some decent policy documents and deeper discussion about the future of Wales.

In short, the Plaid lead is deserved, it will probably grow as we approach the elections as more and more people realise that other parties have febrile and incomplete platforms upon which to campaign, whilst some have barely any platform to speak of.

On a final, personal note, before the comments are filled with accusations that I am a Plaid supporter, I remain undecided when it comes to the Senedd elections in 2026 – for reasons that may or may not become clear to those who read to the end.

Labour in Freefall

 Labour have been fighting like rats in a sack for many long months. Frictions within the Welsh Senedd group and wider party remain clear and evident, with no signs of any closure following the debacle of Vaughan Gething’s premiership, the leadership campaign funding scandal, and all the associated internal conflict.

But this is a minor dispute when set against the divisions between the Welsh Westminster group and the Senedd Labour group. The folly and emptiness of the ‘benefits of Labour at both ends of the M4’ have been well and truly exposed. The attempted imposition of London control on the party in Wales has backfired hugely – demonstrated in a very public fashion by Labour’s car crash campaign in Caerffili, where, frankly, they were roundly and thoroughly beaten.

Meanwhile, some of the cannier Welsh Labour Senedd members have already begun manoeuvres for the post election clean up with an eye on the party leadership in Wales. No doubt anticipating the process of rebuilding the party after what will be a heavy loss, and seeing it as an opportunity to enhance their own political careers.

Privately some Labourites are conceding that the party needs some time in the wilderness to refresh and revitalise, to restore its relevance in a Welsh context, now that it has drifted so far away from the enormously successful political positioning of the halcyon days of Rhodri Morgan.

Indicative of the size of the splits in the party there are still some who believe that all will be well, polling will recover, they will be ‘needed’ in government as a junior partner, and their comfortable lives can continue in their comfortable channels – what better proof of a party deeply stuck in its rut and with no vision or plan?

The Dark (Green) Horse Cometh

 The Greens are coming. There is no doubt whatsoever that they will win a seat in one of the Cardiff constituencies. Years of hard work and graft mean that their leader in Wales, the inaptly named Anthony Slaughter, has a personal vote which will be enough to see him elected.

This will be a win for the Greens.

What is only slowly dawning on people in Welsh political circles is that the Greens could easily come a decent third in the coming election. They have the momentum, they have grown so quickly in the past quarter that they now have more than three times as many members as the Conservatives in Wales, and four times as many as the Liberals.

If they can add as many members again as they did in the last four months over the next four months they will be closing on Plaid Cymru in membership terms.

Their new, charismatic, straight talking leader of the wider Green movement, Zack Polanski, is giving them a much louder voice, an increasingly prominent presence on traditional and social media, and is motivating younger audiences to engage more actively with politics.

The Greens have all the forward momentum, even more so than Plaid, whilst Labour and the Conservatives have no energy at all, Reform UK have peaked (I’m calling Caerffili as the turning point for them, not just in Wales, but UK wide), whilst the Liberal Democrats, in spite of their protestations, are nowhere to be seen, slowly continuing their journey into irrelevance in a Welsh context.

For the Greens in Wales, should they find it in themselves to seize the day, to campaign aggressively, to mobilise the younger vote (everyone under 45), the prospect of 12-14% of the vote across the nation is now possible.

Evenly spread, this would mean 16 seats, imbalances would likely make 12 seats realistic on this national vote share. 12 seats makes the Greens a potential junior partner in a coalition, or a solo contributor to a ‘confidence and supply’ government.

Importantly, in this scenario, Plaid Cymru and the Greens could govern without the need for Labour support. Both parties should push this narrative hard as it undermines the populist ‘vote Plaid, get Labour’ campaign soundbite completely and creates ‘Real Change’ in political terms.

Surprisingly, the Greens can also appeal to disillusioned and wavering Reform supporters, on the basis that they too are an anti-establishment party, one which is in a position to serve as a foil to a Plaid government – keeping Plaid honest and preventing any slide into ‘business as usual’ where Welsh voters are clearly hungry for change.

For those who have felt that ReformUK were the only option to kick the system, they now have a second realistic alternative – one which is more palatable in many ways.

Given current trends the idea that Plaid and the Greens can collectively secure over 50% of the vote in May is well within the bounds of possibility. Good campaigns from both parties will make it a result that is more likely than not. This is the enormity of the change happening in Wales today.

Reform’s Egg is Cracking

The problem with having all your eggs in one basket is that if you drop it, they break. ReformUK have opted for a single egg, named Farage, upon which to allow their hopes to ride. He is cracking. He has blundered by not apologising clearly and without reservation for his ‘banter’ in his school days at Dulwich College.

This has landed on top of stuttering support in the polls and, a clearly unexpected, trouncing in the Caerffili by-election. The ReformUK Wales head office is still in Caerffili it seems, lost now in a Plaid Cymru island – a harbinger of things to come?

They continue to trail behind in the announcement of any national Welsh party structure or candidates in Wales too. They have none of the latter as yet, and the leadership race for Wales has no clear leader or strong contender – those in the running all come with major downsides from a marketing perspective.

As they stumble in Wales and across the UK, Reform UK support will tumble. Some will return to the Conservative fold (especially if the Conservatives in Wales can drop some of their more foolish aping of Reform positions, and/or persuade Andrew RT Davies to be a little quieter/make the move to Reform UK himself). Some will simply stay at home and some will drift to other parties – as noted, for those casting a ‘protest’ vote, the Greens are a viable option without the toxicity of Reform UK.

Importantly, whilst these moves may not be big numbers, margins for sixth seats in the new electoral system are so small that they don’t need to be, a few hundreds will often be enough to swing it.

What of the Conservatives?

 At this stage the best bet for the Conservatives has to be to hunker down, say nothing and do less, weather the storm and hope to bounce back in Wales when the noise dies down. They have pursued entirely the wrong strategy in Wales and they have no time to change course significantly before these elections.

Bluntly, the data shows that the majority of their voters are dead or dying, others have jumped to ReformUK and few, if any, new ones are being captured.

The upside for them is that there are and always will be conservative voters – they should brace for a very tough result though – Wales has often been a rollercoaster for the Tories, a plunge is coming and they can only hold on for dear life, wait, and hope they hit the up track further down the line.

If they are wise and patient (not characteristic traits of politicians) they will tone down the rhetoric, tone up the sensible, realistic policies, and differentiate themselves by being the sensible, calm, and competent centre right political party for Wales.

The Party of Powys

 The Liberal Democrats have become the party of Powys – they probably have enough residual support there to retain a single seat (not guaranteed, Plaid, the Greens, and the Tories, are all realistic options for LibDem voters in Powys). Outside of Powys I fear the Welsh Liberal Democrats have driven themselves into obscurity and irrelevance. Why vote for them? What can they offer and what can they do? Where is the clarity of their position and purpose?

In failing to carve out a genuine Welsh identity for themselves they have become very lost. They are not the party of Ed Davey – they have no ‘Blue Wall’ to target in Wales even if they wanted to be. Their policies are generally a hairs breadth away from those of Plaid Cymru and their attempts to differentiate on the basis of support for independence are farcical –  why would anyone vote for them?

Sincere apologies to the Liberals out there but a vote for the WLDs is a wasted vote this time round.

I’m Excited, You should be too

Right now I would estimate that there is a one in four chance of a Plaid/Green majority in the next Welsh Government. This is exciting. Certainly a more attractive proposition than a three way coalition or a Plaid led Labour/Plaid government. It has the potential to be vibrant and innovative and will be in a position to exert itself as a legitimate democratic Welsh voice in its dealings with Westminster.

This would also mean no Labour presence in the government of Wales for the first time since the start of devolution. It would lead to the end of the comfortable ‘gravy train’ of Labour patronage, sinecures, and confidence that support, and help stagnate, the current establishment. Confidence that support of the Labour status quo will be rewarded, will end.

By definition, and out of necessity, we will see fresh ideas, new vigour, new faces, and a bright wind of change of our own here in Cymru.

For the record, I would like to see this happen as I believe the Greens will ensure that a Plaid government does not ease itself slowly back into the rut left by Labour – bluntly, they will be a guarantee that we don’t get the same old sh*t with a different label.

Making the Magic Happen

This outcome won’t happen without effort, planning, and good campaigning. Both Plaid and the Greens need to grasp the opportunity and unleash themselves boldly and bravely. A Ming Vase strategy would be a big mistake for both parties. All the momentum and strength is with them, whilst all the other parties are waning to various degrees.

For the Greens, they will be winners regardless. One seat will be a victory for them. They have wisely downplayed expectations, in stark contrast to ReformUK, where anything less than a majority will now be a loss because of their folly in claiming victory too soon, just as they did in Caerffili.

Half a dozen, or a dozen seats, or more, for the Greens is a huge victory and one which will pump up their wider prospects and help them maintain momentum through to the General Election in 2029. For the Greens centrally this is a huge and game changing prize and they should be marshalling their entire party to Wales for these elections to ensure a result.

They are flush with members and money and should be throwing it all at the Welsh election for the next four months, working relentlessly to increase youth turnout, pushing the narrative that the Greens can win a seat in every constituency, making themselves the choice for everyone who doesn’t want to vote Plaid or Reform but wants a voice representing them in the next Welsh Government.

It will need brave and bold leadership but Polanski may well have the guts to do it – we shall see.

Plaid need to be ambitious, aiming for 40% of votes cast, pushing hard on the narrative that they are the only party that truly cares about Wales and the people of Wales, making it clear that they are the only ones with anything vaguely resembling an actual plan for government, and, finally, to counter the media deficit, they need to be very loud, all the time.

A New Song

There is a persistent rumour that Winds of Change was a song planted by the CIA to feed the cultural winds that helped draw back the Iron Curtain – this won’t happen in Wales (sadly!), but if there are any artists and songwriters who’ve managed to read this to the end, go write something hopeful and bright. Feed the change that’s coming 🙂