Can Wales beat Argentina?

Alun Smith

So the question being asked by such luminaries as Graham Price, Alex Cuthbert, Dan Biggar and other rugby pundits is: “Can Wales beat Argentina?” Not “Will they?” but “Can they?” To that, the answer is a resounding yes.

Firstly, they are professional athletes with a job to do, and if they don’t believe they can win then what’s the point? Secondly, look at the personnel across the board. There’s no more than a cigarette paper between the two teams in terms of individual capability, particularly away from the scrum. In fact, though greener, I think those Welsh players have a higher ceiling. Even without Jenkins and Francis, on paper, Wales match up to the Pumas.

I remember when the Millennium Stadium was new and South Africa were in town. It was 1999 and Wales were written off, but then the following words were uttered: “Gentlemen, I am Graham Henry, and this is how we’re going to beat South Africa.” I remember thinking at the time, “Yeah man, there are 15 of them and 15 of us!” We won.

A little bit of that thinking wouldn’t go amiss right now, amongst the players and coaches, yes, but also from us lot in the stadiums and on the sofas.

When I said we’d beat the Baa-Baas some laughed, then they laughed again when I said we’d beat Fiji. One of Fiji’s tries came from a forward pass and Dan missed six points. A 17-45 scoreline looks very different, doesn’t it?

I think some fans look at things in a binary sense and miss the bigger picture on occasion. Wales are building. They’ve been building since Tandy took the reins. Sometimes “we’re building” is used as a euphemism for “we’re awful and we don’t know what to do about it”. That hasn’t been, and isn’t, the case with this coach and this group.

Let’s look at the linear facts. Wales have improved in every single game they’ve played under Tandy. Every single one. They were better against France than they were against England, they were better against Ireland than they were against France. In every game, something has improved, whether it was discipline, cohesion, defence or belief… until we got to Italy and produced a 40-minute glimpse of the future.

Over the last two games, what’s improved again is commitment and composure. So yeah, of course Wales can win this match. I’ve noticed over the last few matches another improvement from Wales and that is responsibility. They’re covering for each other, playing each other’s positions and thinking more as a collective.

The other thing I’ve seen is that Tandy is picking horses for courses. He picked Murray against Fiji, knowing that Fiji don’t kick that much, and knowing that their high-risk, high-reward style was going to play into his hands in the loose.

Set piece

Argentina absolutely do have a kicking game. They’re far more structured than Fiji and the set-piece will be an altogether different challenge for Wales. That might mean re-jigging the backline a bit. I have faith that if I’ve spotted that, Tandy and his team would have, and will adjust accordingly.

Now to the question that wasn’t asked: “Will Wales beat Argentina?” So, I’m going to stick my neck out and say yes again. As the improvements gather and evolve, as the tournament goes on, as time goes by, as winning becomes a habit… so does the pressure, so does the expectation. Consider this though:

Wales’ next test isn’t against the Pumas really. Wales’ next test is… can they put everything they’ve learned since that day in Twickenham onto the field in San Juan? If the answer to that question is “yes”, then Wales win.

Front up

All the old clichés apply, of course. Front up, be patient, start well, kick well and strike when it’s on. I’ve got no reason to suspect that Wales won’t do precisely that and I saw nothing in the Pumas’ loss to Scotland that should “frighten” Wales.

Do not underestimate the importance of Adams’ try in terms of his confidence and his will to win. In fact, don’t underestimate the importance of momentum and positivity in general. Wales have spent years in the wilderness, faced setback after setback and never stopped trying, never stopped believing.

They won’t want to go back there. They will be desperate to continue their journey and maintain the smile that is currently on the face of Welsh rugby. They believe. We owe it to them to believe too.

The team will be named on Thursday. Have every faith that Steve Tandy will pick the right one for this particular examination.

Wales to win… by 10.