Gatland farewell? Wales v South Africa talking points

Andrew Baldock

Wales face world champions South Africa on Saturday in what could be head coach Warren Gatland’s final game at the helm.

Gatland’s players are on the back of a record 11 successive Test defeats and look unlikely to remotely trouble the Springboks.

Here are some of the key talking points ahead of the match.

Farewell to Warren Gatland?

Gatland is under intense pressure, and it would be no surprise if Saturday’s Principality Stadium encounter turns out to be his last Test match in charge of Wales. The New Zealander has expressed his desire to continue, but results are stacked against him.

Wales have not won a Test since the 2023 World Cup, while defeat this weekend would condemn them to a whole calendar year without tasting Test match success, which has not happened since 1937. It is conceivable that Gatland, whose second stint as Wales head coach is in stark contrast to a trophy-laden first term from 2008 to 2019, could continue into the Six Nations later this season, yet the odds do not appear in his favour.

Wales’ year from hell

Results-wise, 2024 will be remembered as the worst in Wales’ 143-year international rugby union history. It began with a madcap 27-26 home defeat against Scotland – the Scots’ first win in Cardiff since 2002 – and they did not recover. A narrow away loss to England followed, before Wales shipped 31 and 45 points against Ireland and France, while a home defeat against Italy meant they lost every Six Nations game and propped up the table.

The summer brought further reversals against South Africa and Australia (twice), then Fiji and Australia triumphed during the Autumn Nations Series, leaving the Springboks in position to complete what would be a true annus horribilis.

Have Wales fans had enough?

Judging by the numbers that streamed out of the Principality Stadium as Australia ran riot late in Wales’ last game, patience would appear to be wearing thin. There were hundreds of empty seats by the time Australia eased past 50 points, and why would supporters not feel disillusioned with the current state of affairs?

The first two autumn fixtures were a combined 30,000-plus short of capacity, and while kick-off times have not helped – there were two Sunday games at 1.40pm and 4.10pm, and the South Africa match will swing into action at 5.40pm – Wales fans in many cases are voting with their feet, and the prospect of another comprehensive defeat looms large.

Springboks’ enviable strength

South Africa’s revered rugby juggernaut rolls into Cardiff for a game the Springboks are expected to win easily. Even though head coach Rassie Erasmus has made several changes from the team that saw off England last time out, the starting line-up still has a combined 515 caps, while the bench total of 431 is almost 100 more than Wales’ entire match-day 23.

It is difficult to see an area of the game where Wales can establish parity, let alone dominance, and South Africa’s record victory in the Welsh capital of 52-16 could come under serious threat. It is easy to be pessimistic, given Wales’ current plight, but reality points to South Africa cutting loose.

Six Nations offers little respite

With Wales expected to end the year reeling from 12 successive Test defeats, attention will quickly turn to the Six Nations, which they begin against France in Paris on January 31. It is the toughest of openers, then Wales head to Rome eight days later for an appointment with Italy that is already being billed in some quarters as a wooden spoon decider.

Heavyweights Ireland and England will make the journey to Cardiff, either side of a Murrayfield clash against Scotland, where Wales lost 35-7 on their last visit in 2023. The losing run has to end some time, somewhere, but pinpointing an exact date and location is far from straightforward.