New study challenges WRU plans to cut a Welsh professional team

An independent analysis of 23 seasons of Welsh professional rugby has found that the evidence it examined does not support Welsh Rugby Union plans to cut the number of men’s teams from four to three.

The Ospreys released the findings ahead of publication of the full report. The club commissioned and paid for the study, with a fee fixed in advance regardless of the findings.

The analysis and conclusions are those of the Sheffield Hallam University researchers who carried out the work.

The Welsh Rugby Data Report examined the records of Cardiff, Dragons, Ospreys and Scarlets from 2003–04 to 2025–26. It also reviewed the WRU’s club locations data, the Keystone report and material the union published in October on the future of the professional game.

The study covered attendances, stadium use, player development and a limited set of financial indicators.

The WRU has argued that concentrating its resources on three teams would put the professional game on a more sustainable financial footing. Under its proposals, Cardiff and Dragons would retain their places, with the Ospreys and Scarlets competing for a single west Wales licence.

Professor Keith Davids, one of the report’s four authors, said: “In our view, the rationale for change is not supported by evidence. Narrowing down the pool of players into fewer locations will narrow down the competition pool. This approach may not be helpful for the development of the whole system.”

Welsh derbies accounted for 48% of home league attendances in Wales between 2012 and 2026, according to the study. The researchers found that moving to three teams would halve the number of derbies from 12 to six a season.

They warned that cutting a team could reduce opportunities for players to compete at professional level in Wales and increase the risk of more Welsh players moving to clubs elsewhere. The report also found that Wales tended to finish higher in the Six Nations in seasons when the Welsh clubs performed well.

The Ospreys led the four clubs on league performance, with four titles and six play-off appearances. The report also credited them with supplying the most players to Wales and the British & Irish Lions. Cardiff drew the highest average crowds, the Scarlets had the strongest European Cup record and the Dragons filled the largest share of their stadium’s capacity.

Redevelopment

Alun Wyn Jones, director of Ospreys Rugby, chaired the club working group that commissioned the research.

“We want four Clubs. This is not about one club’s record against another’s,” he said. “Cardiff, Dragons, Scarlets and Ospreys have all put players in a Wales jersey, and the report shows what the four of them bring to Welsh rugby together.”

Ospreys managing director Richard Lancaster said the first phase of the redevelopment of St Helen’s had been completed and called for every option to sustain four clubs to be explored.

The Ospreys say they will send the final report to the WRU and its Professional Rugby Board, ask for it to be considered at the union’s planned rugby summit and offer briefings to the other three clubs. They plan to publish the report in full, including its methodology and sources, by the end of November.

The debate over the number of Welsh professional teams comes as the WRU explores whether Welsh sides could join an expanded Gallagher Prem. Rugby Football Union chief executive Bill Sweeney confirmed on 6 November that the WRU had made a formal written approach and said questions remained over how Welsh teams could leave the United Rugby Championship.