Tom Shanklin delivers his prediction on big Welsh derby

Simon Thomas

Tom Shanklin is backing the Scarlets to edge out Cardiff Rugby in Saturday’s big Welsh derby clash.

Both teams made positive starts to the BKT URC season, with Cardiff recording a bonus point win over Zebre Parma and the Scarlets coming tantalisingly close to a landmark victory away to Benetton Rugby before ultimately drawing 20-20.

Now they are set to lock horns down west in Llanelli.

Tough contest

Former Wales centre Shanklin, who will be commentating on the game for Premier Sports, says it’s a tough contest to call.

“Cardiff looked really good in the first half against Zebre,” he said.

“They were getting on the front foot from set piece and finished off three tries from that.

“At one stage, it looked as though they were going to run away with it.

“But the game was won and they switched off and you could see there was a lack of cohesion and understanding from a team that hadn’t played together before.

“If we are brutally honest, Zebre weren’t good and Cardiff weren’t much better.

“Going into this weekend’s derby, I think the Scarlets will take a little bit more out of Round 1.

“Getting a draw out of Benetton away, you probably take that with the amount of teams that have struggled out there.

“It’s one of the toughest places to go in the URC now and not many teams come away with a win from there.

“I think the Scarlets did a really good job for the majority of the game. They really fronted up and there seemed to be a bit more of a physical edge to them.

“Their line speed was a bit better, their collisions were a bit better.

“It’s obviously clear to see where Dwayne Peel has wanted to strengthen his team and that’s up front.

“They did look a little bit susceptible out wide, but they were pretty good overall.

“It’s a game they will look back on and think they could have won, with Benetton scoring in the 79th minute.

“The Scarlets will be happy with the draw, but there is nothing worse than conceding so late on. They will have been gutted with that.

“But I think they will have taken more confidence from Round 1 than Cardiff, even though they drew.”

Solo try

The highlight of the match for the west Wales region was a stunning solo try from teenage centre Macs Page.

“He looked really good,” said the 70-times capped Shanklin.

“He’s got power, a low centre of gravity, that explosiveness. I was really impressed with him, especially when you consider that was his first league start. He had a very good first game.”

Delivering his prediction on this weekend’s derby, Shanklin said: “It’s very difficult to call and, when that’s the case, I think you tend to go with the home team. That advantage often helps.

“So I think the Scarlets will maybe just edge it at home.”

As for the two other Welsh teams, they fought out a dramatic contest in Round 1, with the Dragons claiming an 84th minute converted try to beat the Ospreys 23-21 at Rodney Parade.

It was some turnaround, given the visitors were leading 21-13 against 14 men with just three minutes to go.

“I thought the Dragons were down and out,” admitted Shanklin.

“The Ospreys applied a lot of pressure in the second half and won a lot of penalties. The Dragons were defending for large periods.

“On about 76 minutes, I walked down from commentary to get ready to do some pitchside interviews and thought there was no way the Ospreys were going to lose.

“Even when they were on their own line at the end, I was thinking their defence – which is pretty physical and renowned – would knock them back, but, no, it didn’t.

“It looked like the Dragons wanted it a bit more and sometimes that just trumps any tactics teams might have. You could really see it.

“Speaking to their coach Dai Flanagan afterwards, it’s a game they maybe think they might have lost in previous years.

“With some of the changes that have happened on and off the field, I think they will definitely improve on last year.

“I am hoping there is a bit more of a feel good factor around the club because they have struggled for a while.”

Record breaking

It was a record breaking start to the BKT URC with the average margin between the teams in the six matches being just 2.4 points, the lowest ever in the competition.

“I think it was a really good opening round,” said Shanklin.

“The match ups were pretty close and no team ran away with it.

“It was a really exciting and competitive first round of fixtures. There were no dead rubber games.”

As for the likely balance of power within the league, Shanklin said: “I think there are five teams that can win it – Munster, Stormers, Bulls, Glasgow and Leinster.

“It’s difficult to look beyond those five, although I would see Edinburgh and the Sharks as the dark horses,

“Out of the Welsh sides, the Ospreys have probably got the strongest squad, but we wait to see how the dynamic is going to work out with Toby Booth leaving at the end of the season.

“There is not a huge expectation on the Welsh teams to get into the top four, top five with the budgets they are having to play with. It’s going to be difficult for them to compete with a lot of the teams.

“What I want to see is them playing positive, entertaining rugby, something that excites me on the field, regardless of results, because you don’t want to lose fans at the moment, you don’t want to put them off.

“If you can see a product on the field that you are happy with and excited by, it motivates you to go and support again.”

Tom Shanklin will be part of the Premier Sports team alongside Ross Harries, Philippa Tuttiet and Martin Gillingham bringing live coverage of Scarlets against Cardiff – the second big Welsh derby of the BKT URC season with all the action live on Premier Sports 2 from 5pm.

To find out more visit www.premiersports.com