Autumn rainfall not guaranteed to reverse drought effects – chief meteorologist

Autumn rainfall is not guaranteed to reverse the drought conditions affecting all of Wales and most of England, a Met Office weather expert has warned.

Natural Resources Wales has declared a drought across the whole of Wales to reflect the lack of rain and continuing high temperatures “increasing pressures on rivers, wildlife and habitats”, according to the Welsh Government.

Will Lang, the organisation’s chief meteorologist, told the Press Association rain is on its way, but there remains a question mark over how much would fall.

Rainfall totals for July ranged from 26% of the expected average for North West England to as little as 1% in the South East.

Parts of Hampshire, the Isle of Wight and West Sussex did not have a single rain day for 59 days.

These conditions have brought 71.3% of England into drought, including major cities such as London and Birmingham, and holiday hotspots such as Devon, Cornwall and Norfolk, according to the Environment Agency.

Asked whether the Met Office expected rainfall, Mr Lang said: “Having seen virtually no rainfall in southern parts of the UK, we will see some rainfall.

“‘How much?’ is the question. The answer is probably not too much compared with our forecast.

“It’s looking like the overall amount of rain will still be below normal for the time of year.”

He continued: “Looking forward into the autumn, though, that’s when we’d normally see a change of conditions.

“We do see wetter and windier conditions and we will see more rainfall.

“Again, ‘how much?’ is the question – and whether that’s enough to alleviate things like the current drought problems, we don’t know yet.”

Mr Lang spoke to the Press Association following a visit to the Met Office in Exeter, Devon, by Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who met apprentices and staff at the centre.

Earlier on Friday, Mr Burnham was at the scene of a wildfire in Stourbridge in the West Midlands where 54 people have been treated by paramedics, including 19 who were admitted to hospital.

South Wales Fire and Rescue Service declared a major incident earlier this week as crews came under significant pressure from multiple fires across the region.

Mid and West Wales Fire and Rescue Service has also declared a major incident, while homes have been evacuated in parts of south Wales and a number of communities have been affected by smoke and flames.

A devastating fire in Newbridge damaged several homes and forced residents to evacuate, while a major incident was also declared in Llandovery.

The scale of the fires has led to calls for additional support, with the Welsh Government confirming that Army resources will now be deployed to assist firefighters.

The Prime Minister told broadcasters: “We might be in for a wet autumn and winter straight after this, because of El Nino and some of the issues there, which was reported to Cobra.

“So, after fire could come floods.

“We have to face up to the changing climate. I think we need a different debate about that.

“There’s no point denying where we are – we need to face up to it, we need more clean energy, we need to see that transition accelerate.

“Those are all of the issues that, you know, are right now in discussion.”

El Nino is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the long-term average.

The Met Office’s Professor Adam Scaife previously said that this year’s El Nino will likely cause “a temporary spike in global annual temperature with the residual heat potentially making next year the hottest in the global series from 1850”.

Chris Hinchliff, the Labour MP for North East Hertfordshire, last week wrote to Mr Burnham urging him to take “urgent action” to prepare for the hotter weather.

“Climate breakdown is the greatest threat to our way of life since the Second World War,” he wrote in his letter.

“If we do not prepare in the short window available to us, the looming El Nino will compound these challenges and inflict devastating consequences on our already struggling country.”

Mr Hinchliff called for a national “nature restoration workforce” to plant trees and restore wetland to bolster water storage, a review of how resilient national infrastructure is in the face of heat, and an acceleration of “food security planning, including measures to support domestic food production, particularly at a local, community scale”.

Asked what sort of effects El Nino might have on the country’s weather, Mr Lang replied: “El Nino can start to have an effect on the UK winter.

“So, one of the things it can do is give a little bit of a boost to rainfall in the latter part of the autumn and as we head into early winter.

“We’re not sure that that will happen at this stage, but it’s something that can happen in El Nino conditions.

“So, that’s one thing we’re looking out for in our forecasts and our models.

“Beyond that, it’s really too early to tell.”