Drakeford says new Senedd voting system will keep Reform UK out of power
Martin Shipton
Mark Drakeford has defended the fully proportional new voting system he has introduced, saying it will prevent the far-right Reform UK party forming the next Welsh Government with less than a third of the total vote.
Under the new arrangements, all 96 MSs elected in the expanded Senedd will be elected in the same way, in contrast to the electoral system used in previous devolved elections.
People will vote in May 2026 for a closed list of party candidates, with six MSs elected from each of 16 new “super constituencies” in proportion to the votes won by their parties.
Under the old system, 40 MSs were elected in “First Past The Post” constituencies, with an additional 20 MSs elected by proportional representation.
Podcast
The former First Minister and current Finance Secretary was speaking on a podcast hosted by Labour MS Lee Waters, who asked him whether it had been anticipated that the new system would lead to a different political outcome.
Mr Drakeford responded: “What the new voting system guarantees is that there will be a progressive government in Wales after the election because we will have a system where if 30% of the population in Wales vote for a party of the far right, they’ll have 30% of the votes in the Senedd, and 70% of the votes will continue to be for parties who broadly share a progressive idea of what the future Wales should be like.”
Mr Drakeford added: “I think it’s a very difficult moment for the Civil Service. I think it has obviously got used to the fact that election after election, the result would anticipate that Labour would, if not be the only party in government, would be the lead party in government. And that is a lot less certain now.
“But I think the shock will be less dramatic than some others, because I think what will happen after the election will be the political challenge will be to parties who actually believe in devolution and who share a broad sense of what centre left government in Wales should be like to find a way of coming together to defend that and to create stable government of that sort.
“And yes, there will be differences, of course, because the make-up of that government may not be like the governments up until now have been. But underneath the headline, the basic tenets of that government – a belief in devolution, a belief in the power of government to do good in people’s lives, a belief that the money we raise is to be invested in the services the people in Wales depend upon – those big things will be shared.
“And actually, I think the new system guarantees a greater sense of continuity than if we were facing an election under our current system, where it’s very likely a Reform insurgent party would take a whole swathe of the 40 First Past the Post seats on 32% of the vote – and we are mercifully defended against that.”
Civil servants
Mr Waters had asked Mr Drakeford about the impact of the new voting system on civil servants following comments made on the podcast by former Liberal Democrat Education Minister Kirsty Williams.
She told how civil servants had been taken aback when she refused to call a new education strategy Qualified for Life 2, as if it was a follow-on from Qualified for Life, which had been published by one of her Labour predecessors.
Ms Williams said: “I think there will be a massive shock to the system [for the civil servants]. Are they ready? No. Are they aware that they’re not ready? Yes.
“I’ve been in recently to do a session with [Welsh Government Permanent Secretary] Andrew Goodall and staff to talk about how best to support a new minister coming in. But are they ready? I don’t think they are.
“And this is maybe controversial, but I don’t think it’s just the civil servants who are not ready. I think civic society in Wales is potentially not ready for not having the Labour Party in charge.
“I’m not making a party political point here, but I think it’s not just the civil servants that have got used to how business is run in Wales, with the occasional interruption, where maybe there might be a formal coalition or a cuckoo in the nest [like herself as a Lib Dem minister].
“It’s not just the civil servants that are going to have a shock. I think there will be ripples right the way through civic society in Wales if there is a different party in power, and I don’t know whether anybody has truly grasped what that will mean for the wider context, not just the government. But I don’t think they’re ready. I think they will be completely bewildered.”
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It will be interesting to compare the results of the May elections between Scotland and Wales. I believe that STV in Scotland will be far more proportional in Scotland than Drakeford’s hatch potch version of D’hondt is in Wales. To minimise the impact of authoritarian parties we need STV in Wales now.
Scotland doesn’t use STV… it will use the same system it always has next year: First Past the Post for most of it’s seats, and the same D’hondt system as Wales does for the rest of them.
Scotland uses STV for Local Elections not Holyrood Elections.
Unfortunately the timetable makes it impossible for STV to be introduced by May. But there are clear indications that a bill will be introduced in the next senedd to change to STV by 2031….but it will need two thirds of the 96 members to support it for it to be passed.
Good!
The D’hondt system is what is currently used in Wales and in Scotland. The new system in Wales is the ‘Closed List’, while Scotland will continue to use the D’hondt system. Both the Committee on Senedd Electoral Reform and the Expert Panel on Assembly Electoral Reform recommended the single transferable vote (STV), but Labour overrode this recommendation because they feared their candidates would be exposed as weak parachutes. In reality all systems are proportionate, so the chances of Reform gaining more seats in any given system is the same. A review of the system is mandatory after next years Senedd… Read more »
Arfon, you’re quite right. I’ve never understood why Labour insisted on this wretched new system – or why Plaid Cymru went along with it – when STV is manifestly superior. I suppose it’s because it gives party apparatchiks more power. Sad to see a politician like Mark Drakeford, whom I’ve always till now respected, stooping t.o this level.
‘I’ve never understood’
Because a supermajority[ two thirds] was needed and Labour would on;y agree to closed lists.
Other positive changes in addition to moving to PR for the election of all Senedd members were included which would have failed if Plaid and Labour had not combined to achieve the super majority.
https://senedd.wales/senedd-now/news/major-changes-to-the-senedd-approved/
Agreed.
Proportional representation means parties have to work together more. It’s good for democracy and government as potentially, new ideas will be spread. The same old Labour policies were not working and because the party was more or less assured of keeping control – no new policies, apart from a few thrown in here and there, were developed. Hopefully, there will be a much needed shake up.
For those looking for fresh ideas and to be part of building Wales’ future, check out New Wales on YouTube : https://www.youtube.com/@NewCymru
No10 needs this in place and I suspect they will eye it up.
Farage can move faster in the UK than trump moves in the US and it will be total.
BOTH extremes are very bad for society and the wider world, where an individuals failings are turned into hatred towards normal people.
Our voting system will always favour cooperative views. Which is fine a lot of the time, but some problems require competitive and confrontational views to be solved,
A startling and disturbing admission. As repugnant as they are, I would suggest that any voting system should be designed to benefit democracy, the will of the people etc; not to keep one side out of power? If Reform wins well then couldn’t they use the system in the same way? Could Labour use it against Plaid etc?
Yes, that’s his point, surely. The new system will reflect what the people actually vote for (which, in his example is majority in favour of left of centre politics), whereas the UK system doesn’t as it hugely exaggerates the largest party, meaning 30% can get a huge overall majority.
They will all compete under the same system, and the results will reflect the views of the voters – how is that not benefiting democracy?
We did not vote for Eluned Morgan , to make it more explicit no member of the public have voted for her. She was a list candidate and should never have been allowed into the position she is now in. Back stabbing entrepreneur
You’ve got it backwards. It’s not this system will unfairly and undemocratically keep a party out of power. It’s that the old system was unfairly and undemocratically keeping parties in power.
OK, maybe the headline is misleading.
There’s nothing democratic about Starmer’s landslide government on 33.7% of the vote. The fear is Reform will achieve the same with a similar vote share in 2029 whereas PR would legitimately and democratically stop this.
The other obvious advantage of PR is that Reform will end up with a fair number of seats in the Senedd (and also in San Steffan were Parliament to adopt that system). The advantage however, is that while not having enough seats to be in power, even the thickest reformer will have plenty of opportunity to see just how lazy, corrupt and useless Reform are. Reform MP’s and councillors have not shown themselves able to withstand the slightest scrutiny thus far.
Indeed, they’ll be a noisy sideshow constantly embarrassing Nigel. What will be interesting is if their number could still be reduced using tactical voting under the new voting system. Perhaps there could be agreements in some or all of the super constituencies for just one party to take on Reform and the others to stand back, allowing that party to take all six seats. If the constituencies were divided up fairly all the pro-Wales alliance parties could end up with more members in the Senedd this way. While some might be unhappy if their six MS’s are all from the… Read more »
So it’s alright for one party to win this way but not another? Banana republic politics….
I’m saying it’s wrong for any party to govern without majority support.
If Mark Drakeford is right about this, hopefully it will be one of his lasting legacies.
Yes indeed QUOTE OF THE DAY
Drakeford the little beauty leaving an unexploded bomb for Reform
After burning a truckload of taxed £25s in a campaign the best they can hope for is a Pyrrhic victory
Mark is absolutely right this system keeps the far right scum out.
What about the far left ?
I beg to differ with our former First Minister Mark Drakeford. Voting for Plaid Cymru not Welsh Labour will keep Reform out of power. ✊ 🏴
The new regime was concocted to keep Labour in the driving seat. It was designed at a time when Reform was just a mere twinkle in a Satanic eye but now the demons have arrived at the Bubble’s gate and they may profit from this concoction. Law of unintended consequences at work here ?
Your comment is closer to reality than Mr Drakeford’s explanation. However I hope he is right about shutting out Farage; but there are no guarantees. Kirsty Williams is also right about the civil service and wider civic society. It doesn’t bode well for a government that is going to need to get things done.
Not voting will keep Labour near the top of the pile. Everyone should vote and not abstain. There are posts Votes for the people who need help to vote
I agree with Mark but question the wisdom of saying this outload. Given the foul UK Labour headwind, I fear that such statements empower Reform to rattle on about ‘stitch-ups rigging the vote’ and what not. Whilst I doubt that this can deliver an outright victory, it might galvanize the disaffected to vote them a few more seats. Remember when commentators told us that remain could not lose coz working class people could never vote in sufficient numbers?
It reads as though Mr. Drakeford doesn’t understand the D’Hondt closed list voting system. A system his Labour party forced through the Senedd, despite independent advisors warning against it and voicing preference for the more democratic STV or single transferable vote.
Tactical voting under D’Hondt is still possible.
At the risk of upsetting the Editor here at Nation Cymru, you can read about ways to vote tactically in next May’s Senedd elections here : https://bylines.cymru/politics-and-society/strategies-for-savvy-voters-tactical-voting-and-the-2026-senedd-election/
Is this actually true?
How can one party decide how to change the voting system?
No matter how you look at it though, since 1999 Labour have controlled the Senedd, but without ever getting near 50% of the votes.
This change does not appear to benefit Drakeford’s party.
The change was backed by a supermajority in the Senedd.
https://nation.cymru/news/mss-approve-senedd-reform-bill/
Follow the candidates as they get selected and learn in which of the new super constituencies you live at our New Wales Senedd 2026 hub : http://new.wales/senedd-2026/
What a waste of money this whole exercise is and all without the electorate being given the opportunity to agree to this huge change..
Democracy costs, better democracy costs more.
The electorate did get an opportunity to agree.They elected Senedd members of parties whose manifestos were committed to the changes that have been implemented.
If the latter is news to you then it shows the importance of taking an interest in what’s happening in politics beyond a trip to the polling station every few years.
If I vote Labour how do I know that they’re not going to stick someone in that has no interest in me or my area? I feel very uneasy with this new system.
You can research the candidates and order they’re standing in before you vote and if unimpressed choose a different party.
Well if you vote Reform you’ll definitely get someone who has no interest in your area.
Lliedi ward in Llanelli elected a Reform councillor, Michelle Beer and she appears to have disappeared off the radar, no support for the Scarlets campaign or Heol Goffa school.
The only thing she appears to have done since being elected was to start a petition. against a solar farm in Bynea which is nowhere near the Lliedi ward she was elected to represent.
Mark Drakeford is the best asset for the labour party losing like the result they had in the recent Caerphilly election .
Arrogant self centered
Not a clue why the Senedd was formed Absolutely failed Wales
Should be Ashamed to show his. Face.