Labour could lose seven seats to Plaid and Conservative squeeze, latest Senedd poll suggests
Welsh Labour could drop seven seats to the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru in the Senedd election on May 6, a poll has suggested.
The poll by YouGov, ITV and Cardiff University shows the Conservatives up 9% and Plaid Cymru up 3% on the 2016 constituency vote. Meanwhile, on the regional list, the Conservatives up 9% and Plaid Cymru up 2% on 2016.
The Conservatives are projected to win five seats and Plaid Cymru three, with Labour winning one extra regional seat in the north of Wales.
The Vale of Glamorgan, the Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Wrexham and Cardiff North are projected to be gained by the Tories, according to the projection.
Llanelli, Blaenau Gwent and Cardiff West, the seat of the First Minister Mark Drakeford, are projected to go to Plaid Cymru.
According to the poll, the final makeup of the Senedd would include 22 Labour seats, down from 29, 19 Conservative seats, up from 11, and 14 Plaid Cymru seats, up from 12.
If accurate it would represent by far Labour’s worst result at Senedd elections, surpassing their previous worst result of 26 in 2007.
Prof Roger Awan-Scully from Cardiff University told ITV’s Sharp End that the poll could be an outlier but was similar to the March YouGov poll.
“They are also very much in line with the changes seen in recent Britain-wide polling, which has suggested some strengthening of the Conservative position and a modest Labour decline,” he said.
“The polling continues to indicate that there are three major parties in the contest for the Senedd. But, Labour’s status as the leading one of those parties no longer looks as if it can be taken for granted”.
He added: “Labour must still be the strong favourites to be the largest party in the Senedd after the election.
“They still lead in all recent polls, and they have a track-record of having finished well ahead in all previous devolved Welsh elections; even in difficult years for Labour, none of their opponents have yet been able to come close to defeating them for first place.
“But the evidence from our latest poll does suggest that Labour’s dominance may be challenged more strongly than ever before in 2021”.
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