Live blog: Wales’ Police Crime Commissioner election results

4.39pm

So that’s it – three Labour PCC’s and one Plaid Cymru PCC.

Plaid Cymru will be very disappointed to lose out on the North Wales PCC role.

The Conservatives will be even more disappointed to come 2nd in every single region – especially after being in first place on first preferences in North Wales and Dyfed Powys.

Labour will I’m sure be cock-a-hoop – their equivalent of a Grand Slam of electoral performances across Wales. Remember that in 2012 they only had one PCC in all of Wales, so there was nothing guaranteed about this.

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4.37pm

Former First Minister Alun Michael has been re-elected as South Wales PCC.

He was first elected in 2012 so this will be his third stint in the role. He got 64% of the votes.

No surprises there!

4.20pm

Cardiff and the Vale of Glamorgan Local Democracy Reporter Alex Seabrook has been told that the South Wales PCC result will be in at 4.30pm. That’s in ten minutes.

But of course, if we apply my rule – ‘any time anyone tells you that an announcement from an election count is ‘X’ time away you should mentally double it’ – the result should probably here about a quarter to five.

4.03pm

Just waiting on the final result which is South Wales, between Alun Michael of Labour versus Steve Gallagher of the Conservatives.

I hate to spoil the ending but if former First Minister Alun Michael doesn’t win after being 75,000 ahead on first preferences in the first round it would be the political shock of the century.

3.50pm

As in Dyfed Powys, in North Wales the winner came from behind to beat the Conservative.

Looks like Plaid 2nd preference voters put Labour over the line in North Wales, and Labour 2nd preference voters put Plaid over the line in Dyfed Powys.

It makes you wonder what Wales’ electoral map would look like with more constituency-level AV.

3.40pm

You wait ages for a bus and then two arrive at once. Labour’s cup runneth over at this election.

This means that Plaid Cymru will have a sole PCC in Wales and Labour will have the other three (we’re still waiting on the South Wales result but, c’mon).

One wonders how different things would have looked if the election had been held last year as originally planned, when the Conservatives seemed to be in a slightly stronger position in Wales coming out of the 2019 General Election.

3.39pm

Labour’s Andy Dunbobbin elected North Wales’ new PCC.

3.38pm

Labour’s Jeff Cuthbert has been re-elected for a second term as Gwent’s PCC.

3.31pm

Any time anyone tells you that an announcement from an election count is ‘X’ time away you should mentally double it, in my experience.

Gwent could also be announced any moment… so probably a good few hours away, then…

3.20pm

North Wales result imminent – between the Conservatives and Labour after incumbents Plaid Cymru came third.

3.17pm

Final result with 1st and 2nd preferences in Dyfed Powys:

Plaid Cymru – 94,488

Conservative – 77,408

3.13pm

That Dafydd Llywelyn win is notable because, looking through the 2016 results, I couldn’t find any other examples of someone coming in second place in the first round and winning the 2nd.

The UK Government are planning to scrap the two-round system next time these elections are held. But that might well lead to more tactical voting in the first round.

3.07pm

Looks good for Dafydd Llywelyn in Dyfed Powys, with a decent 10,000+ majority.

Update: Yes, he’s been elected.

3.01pm

We understand Dafydd Llywelyn is now ahead by a good margin of votes in Dyfed-Powys with Carmarthenshire (apart from Llanelli) and Pembrokeshire still to count.

2.57pm

I’ve been contacted to point out a flaw in my punditry – Ceredigion is of course not Dafydd Llywelyn’s best constituency for 2nd votes as most 1st preference votes there went his way. His best constituencies are of course going to be where people didn’t choose him as 1st choice but will pick him as their 2nd – i.e. places where a lot of people voted Labour…

I stand corrected. And in which case things are looking rosier for him than I had thought.

2.49pm

Dafydd Llywelyn has pulled some thousand or so votes back into the lead in Dyfed-Powys based on second preference votes from Ceredigion, but that was always going to be the best constituency for him.

We expect the final result in 15 minutes…

2.42pm

We’re expecting the result of the second preference counts soon. They have already finished in some constituencies.

2.39pm

More from Ann Griffiths’ chat with LDRS’ Jez Hemming:

Ann Griffith – segment of her interview with me#NorthWalesPCC2021 #LDReporter pic.twitter.com/XWErcoddRZ

— Conwy and Denbighshire Local Democracy Reporter (@LDRJezHemming) May 9, 2021

2.23pm

Ann Griffiths, the losing Plaid Cymru candidate in North Wales tells Jez Hemming of the Local Democracy Reporting Service that she is ‘absolutely gutted’ to have lost out.

It’s a surprise after the high profile Arfon Jones had in the area for Plaid Cymru to miss out on the second round altogether. But it may just reflect Senedd voting patterns. Plaid narrowly lost out on a second list seat in the North Wales region too which was perhaps an ominous sign for this contest, despite the borders being slightly different.

2.07pm

If you’re just joining us, the headlines are:

• Incumbents Plaid Cymru definitely out in North Wales after failing to get into the second round – Labour and the Tories will duke it out for the PCC role
• Incumbents Plaid Cymru through to the second round in Dyfed Powys but in 2nd place, trailing behind the Conservatives
• Labour look set fair in Gwent and South Wales, as expected

We’re waiting now as they count those second preferences…

1.59pm

Plaid Cymru’s Nadine Marshall might be disappointed not to get into the second round there. She had a compelling personal story about why she ran.

As with Gwlad in South Wales East you might have to wonder whether it was worth the £5,000 deposit for Propel.

1.56pm

Full South Wales first preference results:

Alun Michael – Lab: 177,110

Steve Gallagher – Con: 102,465

Nadine Marshall – Plaid: 82,246

Mike Baker – Independent: 37,110

Callum Littlemore – Lib Dem: 19,907

Gail John – Propel: 13,263

1.54pm

Steve Gallagher of the Conservatives and Alun Edward Michael of Labour through to the second round in South Wales.

Cons – 102,465

Lab – 177,110

There is only going to be one winner there…

1.50pm

After that flurry of activity, we are now waiting for 1st preference in the South Wales region where former First Minister Alun Michael will be hoping for reelection, and waiting for the 2nd preferences in North Wales, Dyfed Powys and Gwent.

Gwent looks in the bag for Labour (they have a pretty full bag at the moment). North Wales and Dyfed Powys are nailbiters with a good chance both parties in second place could overhaul their deficit on second preferences.

Who knew PCC elections could be exciting…?

1.44pm

There’s a £5,000 deposit for standing in Police Crime Commissioner elections, which is why they seem to attract fewer candidates than Westminster or Senedd elections.

You have to question Gwlad’s judgement in running in Gwent… It’s not exactly on paper their most promising region and doesn’t seem to have been money well spent. Wouldn’t North Wales or Dyfed-Powys have been a better call?

1.41pm

Ful first preferences from Gwent:

Jeff Cuthbert – Labour: 75, 775

Hannah Jarvis – Conservative: 52,313

Donna Cushing – Plaid Cymru: 29,392

Paul Harley – Independent – 13,601

John Miller – Lib Dems: 7,640

Clayton Jones – Gwlad: 2,615

1.37pm

Like a team of synchronised swimmers counts across the four regions are delivering results all at once.

In Gwent Labour’s Jeff Cuthbert is through to the second round as is the Conservatives’ Hannah Jarvis.

This is as expected really, and I would expect Cuthbert to win quite comfortably on 2nd preferences as he did in the run-off in 2016.

1.34pm

You would imagine that Labour have a good chance in North Wales now based on Plaid Cymru second preference votes. But the margin could be extremely tight there.

Just a reminder that the seat was held in the first election by an independent and in the second by Plaid Cymru so whoever wins between the Conservatives and Labour will be in charge for the first time.

1.33pm

The 1st preference votes in North Wales were:

Pat Astbury – Conservative: 75,476

Andy Dunbobbin – Labour: 69,455

Ann Griffith – Plaid: 67,672

Mark Young – Independent: 15,907

Lisa Wilkins – Lib Dem: 10,149

1.29pm

Plaid Cymru lose North Wales. Conservative Pat Astbury and Labour’s Andy Dunbobbin are through to the run-off.

1.28pm

One interesting thing is whether these regional elections show that voters are more likely to back third parties like Plaid Cymru if they don’t have to consider voting tactically in FPTP seats where other parties dominate.

Here’s a comparison of Plaid Cymru’s PCC and Senedd first preference votes:

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

Dafydd Llywelyn PCC – 15,954

Senedd – 15,261

Llanelli

Dafydd Llywelyn PCC – 9,913

Senedd – 8,255

Brecon and Radnorshire

Dafydd Llywelyn PCC – 4,796

Senedd – 2,075

Ceredigion

Dafydd Llywelyn PCC – 15,945

Senedd – 16,946

Preseli Pembrokeshire

Dafydd Llywelyn PCC – 7,365

Senedd – 6,135

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South

Dafydd Llywelyn PCC – 8,611

Senedd – 6,615

Montgomeryshire

Dafydd Llywelyn PCC – 5,653

Senedd – 4,485

Note that 16/17 year olds can’t vote in PCC elections.

1.19pm

Gwent is most likely to be between Labour’s incumbent Jeff Cuthbert and the Conservative challenger, Hannah Jarvis.

The 1st preferences result from Blaenau Gwent is in, and Labour are 1st, Plaid Cymru 2nd and the Conservatives 3rd. But Blaenau Gwent is one of Plaid Cymru’s strongest area in Gwent so I would still say it’s likely to be a Labour v Tory race.

If Labour don’t get over 50% of the vote on first preferences of course which is entirely possible.

1.18pm

Just a reminder of how the voting system at PCC elections work:

You get two votes and you’re able to mark your first and your second choice of candidate in the left and right-hand column respectively.

If one candidate gets over 50% of the vote, then they’ve won anyway in the first round and on first preferences.

If not, the two candidates with the most first-choice votes go through to a second round. In the second count, the second votes of those who supported eliminated candidates are distributed among the two remaining candidates.

This means that if your first choice is knocked out of the race in the first round, your vote will transfer to your second choice, as long as they’re one of the two to make it through to the second round.

What we’ve seen in Ceredigion now is the Conservatives ahead on the first vote. But if enough Labour and Lib Dem second votes transfer to Plaid Cymru’s Dafydd Llywelyn he could still win it.

1.13pm

One aspect that is hard to judge in PCC elections is the influence of independent candidates who seem to be much better at these elections than normal ones. Half of Wales’ four police areas, North Wales and Gwent, have already been represented by independents in the 2012-16 term. Back then however some parties, including Plaid Cymru, boycotted the elections altogether which may have skewed the results somewhat.

This time there is an independent candidate in North Wales, Mark Young, and South Wales, Michael Baker.

1.07pm

The first preferences for the North Wales region are due very shortly, where Plaid Cymru as in Dyfed Powys are defending the seat. My hunch is that we will probably see a similar scenario to Dyfed Powys where Conservative votes will be higher than last time due to the absence of UKIP.

1.03pm

If Plaid Cymru’s incumbent Dafydd Llywelyn does pull it back on second preferences in Dyfed-Powys it would be quite an achievement as in preparation for this blog I couldn’t find an example of it happening. It is very tight in this case however and you might expect him to get most Labour second preferences, at least.

If you remember from voting, you were asked to mark two columns – one for a first choice and one for second choice. Having counted the first choices they will now count the Labour and Lib Dem second preference votes to see who gets thoe.

The Conservative candidate is Jon Burns.

12.53pm

First choice results from Dyfed Powys are out and it looks like a battle once again between Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives.

Plaid Cymru’s Dafydd Llywelyn is 900 behind on the first vote. Last time he was 5,000 ahead but ended up 15,000 ahead after 2nd preferences after getting a  lot of Labour and Lib Dem second votes.

Total:

PC – 68208

Con – 69112

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

PC – 15,954

CON- 6021

Lab – 4060

Lib – 3016

Llanelli

PC – 9913

Con- 7476

Labour – 10388

Lib – 981

Brecon and Radnorshire

PC – 4796

Con- 13373

Labour – 5694

Lib – 6198

Ceredigion

PC – 15945

Con- 6021

Labour – 4060

Lib – 3016

Preseli

PC – 7365

Con- 11707

Labour – 9335

Lib – 1431

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire

PC – 8611

Con- 11941

Labour – 8361

Lib – 1274

Montgomeryshire

PC – 5653

Con- 10688

Labour – 3419

Lib – 3521

12.52pm

How are we expecting things to go? Given their big election result on the same day of voting anything but Labour wins in Gwent and South Wales would be a bit of a shock. They may even win it on first preferences.

As for Plaid Cymru’s two seats it’s harder to call given the absence of UKIP, who split the vote in 2016, and the big increase in both Labour and the Conservatives vote on Thursday.

12.49pm

Plaid Cymru currently hold the North Wales area, where Arfon Jones is standing down. They will hope that Ann Griffith will take that seat in his stead. Meanwhile, Dafydd Llyweyn will be hoping to retain Dyfed-Powys for Plaid Cymru.

Elsewhere Labour’s Alun Michael (a former Welsh First Minister) and Jeff Cuthbert (a former Assembly Member) are in charge of South Wales and Gwent.

12.45pm

Hello and welcome to this live blog of the Police and Crime Commissioner election results! Not quite on par with Friday’s Senedd results in terms of public interest, perhaps, but there are four Police Crime Commissioners in Wales due to be elected shortly, in North Wales, Dyfed-Powys, South Wales and Gwent areas.