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Only 40% of people in Wales think the UK will still exist in a decade

19 Apr 2021 3 minute read
Marching in the same direction? Left: Scottish independence rally 2018. Picture by Azerifactory (CC BY-SA 4.0) Right: Picture by Lluniau Lleucu / Yes Cymru.

Only 40% of people in Wales think the UK will still exist in a decade, according to a new poll.

With ‘don’t knows’ removed, 60% told IPSOS Mori the United Kingdom would not exist in its current form by 2031.

However, the Welsh were the most confident that the UK would survive out of all of its constituent members. 68% in England thought the UK would not survive, and 73% in both Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The poll also showed that a majority of voters in Wales support Scotland holding a second independence referendum if the SNP win a majority in the Scottish Parliament election.

51% in Wales thought Scotland should be able to go ahead with the referendum, rising to 54% with ‘don’t knows’ removed, the IPSOS Mori poll showed.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos MORI Scotland, said: “The Scottish Parliament elections on May 6 look set to be a critical point in the future of the union.

“Should the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats, as looks likely if current levels of support hold, it will be much more difficult for the UK Government to refuse a second referendum on independence.

“And these figures suggest that on balance, the UK public are on board with that course of action – more believe that the UK Government should allow a second referendum in the event of a SNP majority than say it should not.”

Ipsos MORI interviewed 8,558 people aged over 16 in the UK between April 1 and 7.


SNP depute leader Keith Brown said: “Not only does this poll show that Boris Johnson cannot continue to stand in the way of the democratic wishes of the people of Scotland, it also shows how out of touch Keir Starmer is with his own party voters as well as members.

“Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer’s opposition is becoming increasingly untenable; they cannot continue to deny the people of Scotland their democratic wishes if they choose it.

“Each of the four nations of the UK are united in recognising the democratic wishes of the people of Scotland, but Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer continue to be at odds with the rest of the country.”

Responding to the poll, Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross said: “I think the vast majority of people in Scotland don’t want the uncertainty of another independence referendum.

“They want to see a parliament that protects their jobs, that supports businesses, that invests in their public services.

“I believe the focus has to be on recovery not referendums.”

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