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Over half want more autonomy for Wales according to St. David’s Day poll

28 Feb 2021 2 minute read
Picture by Senedd Cymru (CC BY 2.0).

A new ICM poll for St. David’s Day has revealed that over twice as many people in Wales want more autonomy for the country than want fewer powers.

The yearly poll commissioned by the BBC gives people five options ranging from independence to scrapping the Senedd completely.

The poll showed that with don’t knows removed 52% wanted independence or more powers, while only 19% wanted fewer powers or to abolish the institution.

Again with don’t knows removed, 29% wanted to retain the status quo.

The St. David’s Day Poll has been conducted since 2014:

  Independence More powers Status quo Fewer powers Abolition Don’t know / didn’t reply
2014 5% 37% 28% 3% 23% 5%
2015 6% 40% 33% 4% 13% 4%
2016 6% 43% 30% 3% 13% 4%
2017 6% 44% 29% 3% 13% 4%
2018 7% 44% 28% 4% 12% 5%
2019 7% 46% 27% 3% 13% 4%
2020 11% 43% 25% 2% 14% 5%
2021 14% 35% 27% 3% 15% 6%

‘Close contest for second place’

The poll also suggested that Labour is on course for a comfortable win at the Senedd election in May.

The party is on course for 39% and 37% of the constituency and list vote.

Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives were neck and neck on 24% of the constituency vote and 22% of the regional vote.

Abolish the Assembly and UKIP were on 4% of the list vote each.

Professor Roger Awan-Scullt of Cardiff University projected on the basis of the results that Labour would win 30 seats, Plaid Cymru 15, the Conservatives 13, the Liberal Democrats one and UKIP one.

“The new BBC/ICM poll suggests that Labour is in a strong position to, once again, come first in this year’s Senedd election,” he said.

“Labour has won the most votes and most seats at all five previous devolved elections in Wales.

“And while many things about this year’s election are likely to be very different, one continuity is that Labour is currently ahead of the field once again.

“The Conservatives and Plaid seem set for a close contest for second place, and both may be on course to increase their numbers in the Senedd.”


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