All but one of Wales’ Conservative MPs would be ousted at the next Westminster election if Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Plaid Cymru formed a ‘Progressive Alliance’, a campaign group have claimed.
Best for Britain said that according to their analysis only one Conservative MP – Craig Williams in Montgomeryshire – would keep his seat if the plan went ahead.
A Labour-less pro-Remain alliance between Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid Cymru at the 2019 election failed to make any headway, winning none of their target seats as the Conservatives gained six seats.
But Best for Britain claim that such a pan-UK scheme at the next election would hand Ynys Môn to Plaid Cymru, and 13 other seats, including Bridgend, the two Pembrokeshire constituancies and all the seat in the north-west, to Labour.
Overall, Labour would win up to 351 seats by working with other internationalist parties at the next election, Best for Britain said.
‘Must be open’
“Labour has done well to rebuild since last year’s election collapse, but as things stand they will need the support of other parties to make a return to government in 2024,” Best for Britain CEO Naomi Smith said.
“This reliance is even clearer when you add Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party into the picture, previous iterations of which have stood aside for Conservative candidates over the last two elections in a show of nativist unity.
“If Keir Starmer wants a shot at No 10 in three years, the party must be open to working with the Greens and Lib Dems, particularly given the impending constituency boundary changes and SNP strength north of the border.”
For the purpose of this analysis, Best for Britain assumed that 88% of Labour, Liberal Democrat, Green and SNP/Plaid Cymru votes would break to the leading opposition party in the event of a pact, with 7% being redistributed to the Conservatives and a further 5% would be unwilling to change their vote (in a ‘no pact’ scenario this does not apply).
Their analysis was based on polling analysis of how votes break between parties undertaken by YouGov/Best for Britain prior to the 2019 GE. Best for Britain also assumed that the Brexit Party vote in focaldata’s poll will be replicated by the Reform Party.
MRP Poll conducted by Focaldata. Total sample size was 22,186 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 4th – 29th December 2020.