Reform UK has narrow lead in Caerphilly by-election poll
Reform UK has opened up a narrow lead over Plaid Cymru in the run-up to the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, with Welsh Labour pushed into third place, according to a new Survation poll.
The poll, commissioned by Camlas Public Affairs, places Reform on 42% of the vote, with Plaid close behind on 38%. Labour trails on 12% – a dramatic collapse in a seat it has dominated for over a century at Westminster and in every Senedd election since devolution.
If replicated at the ballot box next Thursday, the result would mark a seismic shift in Welsh politics, breaking Labour’s long record of dominance in one of its strongest heartlands.
Older voters
The poll indicates Reform’s rise has been powered by older voters, with 49% of those aged 55 and above backing the party. Reform has also attracted large numbers of disaffected Conservatives, with seven in ten 2021 Tory voters in Caerphilly now supporting Nigel Farage’s party.
Plaid Cymru, meanwhile, is dominating among younger voters, with half of 18–34 year-olds intending to back the party. Plaid is also picking up nearly a third (31%) of Labour’s 2021 voters and almost one in five of Caerphilly’s former Conservatives.
Labour’s once-reliable base has fragmented badly: only a third of its 2021 voters are sticking with the party, while more than half have switched to Reform or Plaid.
Collapse of the traditional parties
The findings underline the collapse of both Labour and Conservative support in Caerphilly. In the 2021 Senedd election the two parties together secured 63% of the vote; the new poll suggests that figure has now slumped to just 16%.
Camlas Public Affairs managing director Rhodri ab Owen said the by-election was being closely watched as a test of what lies ahead in the 2026 Senedd elections.
“All eyes have been on Caerphilly,” he said. “The battle lines of Welsh politics have been redrawn. Labour’s dramatic 34-point drop shows its long-standing dominance is under real threat, while Plaid and Reform are increasingly defining politics in Wales across generational lines.”
‘Unprecedented transformation’
Damian Lyons Lowe, chief executive of Survation, said the result showed Welsh politics “on the cusp of an unprecedented transformation.”
He added: “This type of result, if replicated nationally, would not only end Labour’s century-long winning streak in Caerphilly but also bring to a close over twenty years of Labour’s electoral dominance in Wales.”
The by-election, triggered by the death of Labour MS Hefin David, will be one of the last to take place under Wales’s current electoral system before reforms are introduced for the 2026 Senedd election.
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Labour arguing that this is a two horse race between them and Reform should be ashamed of themselves.
Unfortunately the polls indicate that this is the case and people are turning away from Labour as they feel let down. I am voting tactically and voting Plaid. Much better chance another socialist party than give it to the Thatcherites right wing Reform
I can never understand what the Welsh people see in this anti Welsh party.
reform are never held to account by the press in the main and have people like musk and zuckerberg bigging them up on their platforms, GBeebies a constan hate peddler and allowed to push lies. And if there is a low turn out, that works for them. The UK has managed to demonise a very small section of society to allow these carpet baggers and circus barkers of hate in. The paymasters for reform will want payback. There is nothing for us. Buyers remorse just around the corner for a lot of voters. See the US for how bad it… Read more »
I think you will find that Musk dropped his support for Reform a few months ago – Musk has thrown his support behind another entity.
No, he amplifies him still. His main love in is now with Yaxley Lennon but farage still gets a free pass on that platform. This is part of how farage remains in the news. This is how musk manipulates who gets boosted on his platform. Which is why its no point being on there if you are decent.
Don’t need to look at US. Look at the mess Reform is making of local councils. Corrupt and clueless.
The US is in a mess with farage favourite in charge. At the moment it’s a few councils in the UK. Damage is limited. The US are now abducting quite violently US born and bred and vanishing them, they target people not white. Trump is blowing boats up in international waters with no judicial process, he has the supreme court stacked with his nodding dogs, his team basically do what he says and they do it with glee and he put a drunk ex TV host in charge of the military. In fact a lot of his staffers are ex… Read more »
You don’t need to see the USA it has got really in Kent where they can’t even run a Council and have realised that their promises can’t be delivered and have had to increase the council tax just to stay afloat.
I’m not sure many of their potential voters actually know what Reform really stand for. The smokescreen of the small boats issue masks their real intention to roll back the state.
So true. Our new deform councillor in Trowbridge and St Mellons is just so quiet, he might as well not exist. Maybe he doesn’t. Not even a thank you to his supporters for voting him in.
Destruction, race hate and sell off.
Try to avoid that synopsis and you are in agreement with that summery or pegging up your nose. Not sure ignorance is a defence anymore.
I would hardly want to defend the indefensible, but trying to understand why people at the short end of the wedge from Osborne’s austerity years are looking for straws to clutch on to.
Puten’s stooges, you mean.
You’ve no actual interest in knowing have you?
I think you’ve missed the point. Rolling back the state is exactly what a large number of people want. The state is consuming ever-larger amounts of tax-payers’ money and delivering ever-lower standards of service in exchange. This is true at UK, Wales and local levels. It is no wonder people have had enough of being ripped off by the state.
Thatcherism on steroids!
Deform have already done just that in the councils they run in England in the space of a few months.
Very difficult for me to understand too – but we are talking about 800 years of mental colonization.
I disagree. We are talking about poor housing, low employment prospects, and empty towns and villages of young people and their families. Blaming all this onto Edward I is a bit rich.
Caer voted 57.6% Brexit so two halves of the no brainer will fly Farage’s flag in Wales…
I guess there is no cure but death for the stupid, mean and nasty…
Hi Amir presume you are refering the the shameful Labour Party, they have become more and more anti Wales as the years go by, maybe it’s complacency that they can do whatever they want, their own personal crusades and will always have the support of the Welsh public, I don’t believe Reform are the long term answer but all the older parties and yes I include Plaid Cymru in that need a major shock and reset so maybe a term with Reform will be whats needed to re align the rest.
That assertion is reckless. Reform’s policies aren’t a harmless jolt; they’re a wrecking ball aimed at the very foundations Wales has spent decades rebuilding. One term of Thatcherism took generations to recover from, and Reform’s blueprint is even more brazen. If the older parties need reform, let it come from within, not from a party whose idea of “reset” is ripping out rights, protections, and public trust like Thatcherism on steroids. For once the young people have a voice in Caerphilly and I hope all that can do, do it at the ballot box because they need to remind their… Read more »
Plaid you mean? I agree.
Labour should withdraw
True
That’s hardly going to happen in advance of May 2026, perhaps they could quietly suggest supporters lend their votes to Plaid.
Labour on 12 %…..in Caerphilly! If that doesnt signal that the party is facing virtual extinction in Wales i dont know what does.
Is that another poll prediction ? You watch, come the day it will depend a great deal on whether any of the parties can get the roughly 50% non voting electorate off its collective backside.
I suppose we’ll just have to wait for the bigoted old g!ts to die off.
Well done for admitting you’re bigoted Adrian. That shows a level of self awareness I wasn’t sure you’d be capable of.
Aameen.
I wouldn’t wish the worst on anyone, but it is a long wait for this horrible part of a generation to depart.
There is a seismic shift on the horizon when the current older demographic starts to decline more rapidly, that’s true.
But look at the damage much of that generation has already inflicted on our day to day lives, unfortunately they could make that infinitely worse for the rest of us by voting in a far-right government before they shuffle off this mortal coil. What a political legacy.
Expecting the 2008 banking crash, Brexit and Covid to have no impact on public finances is the big problem for politics at present. No party can restore the damage done overnight. Resorting to voting for Reform as a protest against declining public services and the high cost of living is self-defeating. Turkeys for Christmas.
Have to agree with this. it’s a long road back to the levels of economic growth/prosperity of 2008, and those weren’t historically that amazing. At the last GE, anytime a major party tried introduce a dose of reality, they dropped points in the polls. Public have to take a lot responsibility for not wanting to face up the challenges the country faces.
On the plus side, having reform majors, councils and in the senedd hopefully will allow people to see some sense before the GE in 2029, when a reform government could do some real damage.
I agree as well however I think Social media has played a big factor in spewing misinformation. Moreover right wing populists are very good as shifting the blame on the ‘deep state’ or globalist elite’ whenever things don’t go their way. That is Trump’s playback.
Plenty of misinformation and populism on the left as well.
The bias is on the right though. The machine pushing the far right is orders of magnitude higher. Hence Ref are polling well. Look at Paul Marhsall for example.
I believe the opposite is true and that you must inhabit an echo chamber that sees the world and the media/social media through a different colour lens. Socialism has become the accepted norm in this country through the media/social media’s simplistic blaming of the ‘entitled class’ – yes some of these guys are bad but resorting to Cuba-style policies and suppressing aspiration is not the answer.
Populism on the left is an oxymoron.
It’s the difference between policy and politics. On the left: populism is often a mobilising tool, not a governing framework.
On the right (Reform especially): populism is the governing framework — grievance becomes governance.
I don’t believe in opinion polls there’s only one that matters and that’s on the day. It’s going to be very close I think let’s hope the young, tolerant outward looking Caerphilly voters defeat the old racist backward looking inbreds
Getting the vote out will be key, and older voters tend to actually get to the polling station.
Agreed but Reform have another type of voter and they are less likely to be reliable and vote on the day
Abandon all allegiances. Tactical voting is essential.
Absolutely, I’ve argued this for ages. To paraphrase the Spooky Men’s Chorus “Vote to keep the bastards out”. Labour voters and Lib Dems, vote Plaid if you want to preserve decency in the Senedd.
Cymru, not least with the generational steadfast stand of Caerffili folk, has kept Tories out for a quarter of a millennia. Why then, after all of that, are our people seemingly planning to vote for their unhinged, violent of intention, ultra far right hate wing? Not because the Tories weren’t nasty enough surely? If Caerffili is seriously planning to vote for a candidate who is in possession of knowledge relating to the activities of convicted criminal Nathan Gill, as someone (Powell) who worked so closely with him, they themselves need to view the proof which convicted him which shows him… Read more »
Your slavish adoration of Reform is rather pathetic. I’m starting to think that you are an employee rather than a sad English bloke with time on his hands -and a strange desire to pretend to be Welsh.
Another couple of category errors Frank: I don’t ‘slavishly adore’ anyone, I just have a vote and I use it…and I’m 100% Welsh. Believe me, you don’t matter enough for me to lie to you.
‘Why then, after all of that, are our people seemingly planning to vote for their unhinged, violent of intention, ultra far right hate wing?’ My guess would be: (a) the widespread and increasing utter public disillusion with the politics and the politicians which the UK has experienced during most of the last two decades which has led more and more voters to yearn for something radically different. Summed up, for me at least, by chancing to see a middle-aged middle England woman cornered by a TV reporter for a vox pop who said, simply, something along the lines of ‘things… Read more »
Yes they can, they want to remove Wales right to self governance, they want to exterminate our language and culture and I strongly advise you to take off your angry victim sunglasses and have a good read of what the ECHR actually does for you before you vote.
I’m rather shocked that Caerphilly had that many hate filled racists living there.
They seriously need to clean up their neighborhood’s.
I had exactly the same feelings for Llanelli from day one of Stradey Park Hotel.Not the Llanelli I ever knew a town historically on the right side of History from the 1911 Railway Workers Strike,The volunteers who fought against Franco for the International Brigade and their protests against South African Rugby teams during the apartheid era.
I think we’re missing something here. Reform are adept at seeding community division, where in fact it’s inequality that is the problem. I would rather doubt that Caerphilly is a hotbed of racism, more that it is subject to unfunded promises of a better future. When the trade unions were strong, this would never have been able to take hold.
I think you have a valid point, I’m just very surprised that strong valleys folk have sunk to the victim mindset level.
Although you can’t support reform and not be racist.
People are likely to reach for anything when they’re depressed and defeated, we need some good orators to stand up and give them some heart and hope.
“Caerphilly, Think Twice” *They say Reform is rising. But we remember the fall.* The valleys were starved— not by accident, but by design. Thatcher didn’t just close pits— she closed pantries, broke backs, and left Welsh families to choose between heat and dignity. The miners stood firm. The children went hungry. And now, decades on, some cheer for the same right-wing echo wrapped in louder slogans and Union Jack bravado. But shouting isn’t solidarity. And scapegoats aren’t solutions. Reform UK? It’s Thatcherism with a fresh coat of paint. It’s suspicion dressed as strength. It’s the same contempt for the working… Read more »
Labour would be quite happy for Reform to defeat Plaid in Caerphilly – that’s why it’s chosen a relatively weak candidate, and not trying very hard. There is nothing more ‘grating’ for Labour than losing to Plaid. Labour hates Plaid even more than Reform despite all its protests. Remember Labour and Reform are still both British Nationalist, Unionist, parties. Strategically too Labour is naturally more focused on May 2026 than on October 23. If Plaid is allowed to harvest Labour’s votes, but still loses to Reform, Labour will be gifted with the perfect slogans for its campaign in the Senedd… Read more »
I’ve voted Labour all my life but if I lived in Caerphilly I’d be voting Plaid, no question.
They might try that line but I can’t see it working. If this vote was replicated at next year’s Senedd election, Labour wouldn’t win a single seat in this constituency!
I disagree. I found it appalling that Mr Powell rudely interrupted the other candidates so many times, being allowed to do so by the person ostensibly in control of the debate, Nick Savini. The Lib-Dem and Plaid Cymru candidates were the most sensible, convincing and well mannered in my view and neither interrupted other candidates at all.
How disgusting
I just wouldn’t feel safe having my children live in a community with so many of those types.
The one thing that is indisputable is that no political party cares more about Wales than Plaid Cymru. Labour, Conservative and Reform UK do not care as much about Wales as Plaid does – fact.
I dispute that. Gwlad cares far more, as witnessed by the fact that all we talk about is Wales, not Gaza or the global climate or all the other things except Wales that Plaid talks about.
Caring for other countries doesn’t mean you care less about your own
It’s perfectly disputable. PC want to cut off Wales’ nose to spite Wales’ face and become mean and inward-looking, not to mention quasi-communist and tank the economy even further. That’s ideology, not care.
Blimey, you must have very low expectations of your elected people.
Why Wales will vote Reform.
If the current political landscape remains unchanged Wales will unquestionably vote Reform in large numbers in 2026. Our people will be too illinformed, too Britishized in their voting patterns to do anything other. Deliberately denied any in-depth knowledge of our own history at school most of us are now altogether assimilated – a sad people oppressed for many centuries, mentally colonized, inferiorized – and now irredeemably servile.
Hit the nail on the head perfectly John. A sad but accurate truth that years of media conditioning and programming has turned so many good people into rather useful drones.
Simply ask a reform supporter to give you a reason, and the same old record gets played, they don’t know, and worst still, they dont know that they don’t know.
You’ve clearly upset the local village idiot with your truth bomb! 😆
Any planet that guy is ever impressive on is not in this solar system.
It seems unsurprisingly that the thick as mince supporters of the far Right English National Party think the Survation poll of only 500 people was the result of the Election 🤣. They think they’ve won even though a third of those asked said they hadn’t decided or weren’t prepared to say. If Plaid voters turnout they’ll win simple as that for me
If you don’t want a Reform UK MS, then I IMPLORE all people who might even be considering voting Labour, Liberal Democrat or Green to vote Plaid Cymru.
If you don’t want another failing Plaid MS, then I IMPLORE all people who might even be considering voting Labour, Liberal Democrat or Green to vote Reform. (one could equally say)
That’s the most ridiculous comment I’ve seen in a long time. As if Gwlad’s handful of misfits would make a difference in Caerphilly or anywhere in Wales.
As this poll reveals, don’t waste your vote on Labour next Thursday. Vote Plaid Cymru instead to stop Reform from winning.
You have half a point. I wouldn’t say impressive; but at least Powell and Whittle could string a decent sentence together (whether one agrees with them or not). The rest were absolutely dire. Is this really the best that political parties can offer our national Parliament?
If you want to damage your community and country. Vote Reform UK. They are asset strippers rather than nation builders.
Plaid are the ONLY party that give a hoot about Wales.
Nige keeping nasty company. Anyone gets Powell on their doorstep, check what he will do for womans rights.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/oct/16/farage-urged-to-explain-anti-abortion-links-to-meeting-with-trump-officials