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Second poll today suggests Conservatives gaining some ground in Senedd race

05 May 2021 2 minute read
First Minister Mark Drakeford AM. Mark Hawkins / Alamy Stock Photo. Andrew RT Davies picture by Senedd Cymru.

A second Senedd poll published today shows a slightly tightening race between Labour and the Conservatives.

ComRes shows Labour on 36%, the same as their last poll at the end of April, but the Tories close the gap by one point to 28%.

The Conservatives are also up a point on the regional list, to 25%, although Labour are also up a point, to 32%.

The poll paints an overall picture much like the YouGov poll published earlier, which had Labour on 36% in the constituencies and the Conservatives on 29%.

Labour were on 31% in the regions according to YouGov and the Conservatives on 25%.

There is more bad news for Plaid Cymru in the ComRes poll suggesting that they are down 1% to just 18% in the constituencies. YouGov’s earlier poll showed them also down -4% to 20%. ComRes also have them down 2% to 19% on the list.


Vying for the all-important list seats, the Lib Dems are steady on 6%, Abolish fall two points to 6%, and the Greens are up two points to 5%, suggesting that some key regional list seats will be very close.]

According to these figures, it’s possible that only one seat – the Vale of Glamorgan – will change hands. Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives would split the South Wales list seats between them with six each.

In Mid and West Wales and North Wales, Abolish would get a list seat each, Labour would get three, Plaid Cymru one and the Conservatives two.

In the constituancies:

Labour 36 (-)

Conservative 28 (+1)

Plaid Cymru 18 (-1)

LD 6 (+1)

AWAP 3 (-1)

Reform UK 3 (-1)

Other 6 (+1)

On the list:

Labour 32 (+1)

Conservative 25 (+1)

Plaid Cymru 19 (-2)

AWAP 6 (-2)

LD 5 (-)

Green 5 (+2)

Reform UK 3 (-)

Other 6 (+1)

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