Shock projection shows Plaid Cymru down to just two seats under new Westminster boundaries
Plaid Cymru would fall to just two seats under Wales’ new Westminster boundaries if the 2019 General Election results were repeated, a political forecasting website has suggested.
The data by Electoral Calculus suggests that Plaid Cymru would only win the new seats of Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Ceredigion Preseli, which include parts of the old Dwyfor-Meirionnydd, Arfon, Ceredigion and Preseli Pembrokeshire seats.
The Conservatives meanwhile would win 12 seats, including the new Caerfyrddin seat which would include parts of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr which is currently held by Plaid Cymru. They would also win the new Aberconwy which includes half of Arfon, which is currently held by Plaid.
It could mean that Plaid Cymru would be left with just two MPs – likely to be Ben Lake and Liz Saville-Roberts – rather than their current four. Hywel Williams currently holds the Arfon seat while Jonathan Edwards on Carmarthen East and Dinefwr who won election for Plaid in 2019 currently sits as an independent after losing the whip.
Elsewhere in Wales, the Conservatives would lose Bridgend to Labour under the new boundaries, while Labour would lose Alyn and Deeside to the Conservatives. A full map of the projected results for Wales can be found here.
The data is however based on the 2019 result, which may have represented a high water mark for Conservative support, with the latest poll suggesting that they could lose seats in the north-east of Wales if an election was held today.
The Boundary Commission for Wales have since the beginning of September published its initial proposals for the new map of Westminster constituencies which will come into force at the next General Election.
Under the changes, Wales is reduced from 40 to 32 MPs, with all constituencies apart from Ynys Môn facing significant alterations.
The proposals themselves are now open to eight weeks of consultation but are unlikely to be changed significantly at this point.
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