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Shock projection shows Plaid Cymru down to just two seats under new Westminster boundaries

17 Oct 2021 2 minutes Read
Ceredigion Plaid Cymru MP Ben Lake: UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor

Plaid Cymru would fall to just two seats under Wales’ new Westminster boundaries if the 2019 General Election results were repeated, a political forecasting website has suggested.

The data by Electoral Calculus suggests that Plaid Cymru would only win the new seats of Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Ceredigion Preseli, which include parts of the old Dwyfor-Meirionnydd, Arfon, Ceredigion and Preseli Pembrokeshire seats.

The Conservatives meanwhile would win 12 seats, including the new Caerfyrddin seat which would include parts of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr which is currently held by Plaid Cymru. They would also win the new Aberconwy which includes half of Arfon, which is currently held by Plaid.

It could mean that Plaid Cymru would be left with just two MPs – likely to be Ben Lake and Liz Saville-Roberts – rather than their current four. Hywel Williams currently holds the Arfon seat while Jonathan Edwards on Carmarthen East and Dinefwr who won election for Plaid in 2019 currently sits as an independent after losing the whip.

Elsewhere in Wales, the Conservatives would lose Bridgend to Labour under the new boundaries, while Labour would lose Alyn and Deeside to the Conservatives. A full map of the projected results for Wales can be found here.

The data is however based on the 2019 result, which may have represented a high water mark for Conservative support, with the latest poll suggesting that they could lose seats in the north-east of Wales if an election was held today.

The Boundary Commission for Wales have since the beginning of September published its initial proposals for the new map of Westminster constituencies which will come into force at the next General Election.

Under the changes, Wales is reduced from 40 to 32 MPs, with all constituencies apart from Ynys Môn facing significant alterations.

The proposals themselves are now open to eight weeks of consultation but are unlikely to be changed significantly at this point.

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Richard
Richard
1 month ago

I think that while of course there is a long way to go for all political parties ……in any seat in these times of rapid change………the interest of Plaid may well be best served focusing on our home nation and its many needs.

Whether there are 2 or 4 or 6 Plaid MPs …in the scheme of things at Westminster so ling dominated by one party – counts i guess little.

Leigh Richards
Leigh Richards
1 month ago

Look forward to the day when we (plaid) have zero seats at westminster – because we’ll be an independent nation and westminster will be a foreign parliament!

Keith ANDREWS
Keith ANDREWS
1 month ago
Reply to  Leigh Richards

Be very careful what you wish for, or I should say dream about,surely the people of these British Islands should be pulling together in a very difficult world.incedently, I am more than half Welsh, though proud of my Welsh side, (not sure which arm or leg it is) I am also proud to be English, whatever that is these days.

Phil Jones
Phil Jones
1 month ago

I’m a constituent of J Edwards and would normally continue to give him my vote but I am puzzled at his continued absence from Plaid Cymru. I know we are a long way from another general election but I think this matter needs sorting swiftly.

Gareth
Gareth
1 month ago
Reply to  Phil Jones

Yes, Plaid need a new candidate asap.

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
1 month ago

Westminster has never represented Wales, even with 40 MPs. And with the reduction of 9 MPs means our voice will be hindered further. And the sly Tory redrawing of Constituencies done and a cynical ploy to gain political advantage thus giving them power in-perpetuity says everything about this undemocratic idiocracy that rides roughshod over Wales, NI & Scotland. And I cannot understand the negativity towards Plaid Cymru regarding their loss of seats? At least they’ve always tried to put our interested first in sea of noise at Westminster. Sadly most voters in Wales support parties that have done absolutely nothing… Read more »

Last edited 1 month ago by Y Cymro
Hannergylch
Hannergylch
1 month ago
Reply to  Y Cymro

There a further reason why Scotland’s voice is louder: the voting system. For arcane demographic reasons, first-past-the-post works in the SNP’s favour whereas Plaid Cymru get fewer seats than their vote-share should entitle them to.

Rob
Rob
1 month ago

With the UK on the brink of a winter of discontent, food shortages caused by Brexit the Tories really shouldn’t be this far ahead.
I sincerely hope that Labour, the Lib Dems, Plaid & the Greens work on a progressive alliance at the next election as it may be the only way we can defeat the Tories. But I fear that self interest will get in the way.

Huw Davies
Huw Davies
1 month ago
Reply to  Rob

Just shows how c*ap the general standard of politics is. A bit like the 1990s when Wales rugby sides were being hammered by any fairly competent side but when you looked at changing the players there wasn’t much point as they were no better than the ones already there! Plaid should just leave Westminster to Labour and Tory MPs to play politics in and concentrate on being useful in Wales.

Penderyn
Penderyn
1 month ago
Reply to  Rob

what does “progressive” even mean…..progressively more disconnected from the actual growing underclass in Wales…..or progressively more neoliberalist?

I dont get it

Jack
Jack
1 month ago

This would be in the event of a exact repeat of the 2019 election. I think that’s pretty unlikely tbh.

R W
R W
1 month ago
Reply to  Jack

And it’s also assuming that there wasn’t any tactical voting in any of the above mentioned constituencies at the last election.

R W
R W
1 month ago

The Tories winning Caerfyrddin??!! I don”t think so. Don’t they realize that they win Carms East and South Pembs because of the large Tory vote in South Pembs.? Of course they don’t because they’re an English based organization and don’t have any understanding of what goes on here.

Penderyn
Penderyn
1 month ago

I know a lot of Welsh nationalists who havent voted Plaid Cymru in many years now…especially the more pro-Brexit ones.

Plaid Cymru has failed to be a true umbrella movement. I like living in reality and maybe only 2 seats will give them a healthy dose

ArgolFawr
ArgolFawr
1 month ago

Just as the Tories are hoping.

Barry Pandy
Barry Pandy
1 month ago

Gerrymandering by the Tories, there’s a surprise.

However, I bet Labour are loving this too. Anything to squeeze out Plaid. After all they ‘don’t like nationalism but like internationalism’ which is why they want to lock us into a racist, xenophobic, inward looking so-called union.

Mr Williams
Mr Williams
1 month ago

Come on Plaid, Labour, Lib Dems please take notice. Form a ‘progressive alliance’ for the next general election – or we will be stuck with more years of Tory government.

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