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Tories gain support in last days of campaigning according to Senedd election poll

05 May 2021 2 minute read
Mark Drakeford. Picture by Christopher Jones / Alamy Stock Photo. Adam Price. Credit: Euan Cherry/WENN. Senedd Cymru. Andrew RT Davies picture by Senedd Cymru (CC BY 2.0).

The Tories have gained support in the final days of the Senedd election campaign, according to a new poll.

The YouGov poll, commissioned by ITV Wales, suggests that Labour could match their vote share at the last election, and still lose seats to the Conservatives.

The poll could put the Conservatives within reach of seats such as the Vale of Glamorgan, Gower, Vale of Clwyd and Wrexham.

According to the survey, Plaid Cymru has the same level of support at the election five years ago, which would put the pro-independence party in third place.

The poll shows the Conservatives having gained 5% in constituencies since the last poll commissioned by ITV Wales, and Labour being up by 1%, while Plaid Cymru have slipped by 4%. None of the smaller parities have made any progress since the last poll. The Liberal Democrats can still hope to hold on to the single constituency seat it has.

Here are the poll results for the constituencies. The previous poll results are shown in brackets:

  • Labour 36% (+1%)

  • Conservative 29% (+5%)

  • Plaid Cymru 20% (-4%)

  • Reform UK 4% (no change)

  • Lib Dems 3% (no change)

  • Green 2% (no change)

  • Abolish the Assembly 2% (no change)

‘Two votes’ 

Voters get two votes at the election, one on the constituency ballot, and one on the regional ballot. The regional poll shows that the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party has a chance of winning seats for the first time is the legislature it wants to scrap.

UKIP’s achieved its best result at the 2016 election, when it won 13% of the vote and gained 7 seats.  The latest poll shows its support to be down to 3%.

Here are the poll results for the regions.

  • Labour 31%

  • Conservative 25%

  • Plaid Cymru 21%

  • UKIP 3%

  • Lib Dems 4%

  • Green 5%

  • Abolish the Assembly 7%

These numbers would see Labour on around 25 seats, the Conservatives on around 17, Plaid Cymru on around 15, Abolish winning two regional seats and Plaid Cymru retaining their sole constituency in Brecon and Radnorshire.

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2 years ago

I thought the lib dems held Brecon and Radnorshire?

Huw Pritchard
Huw Pritchard
2 years ago

So despite the rise in support for independence, Plaid’s support has hardly budged since 2016?

2 years ago

These polls are volatile. Same old story where the disconnect happens between interest in independence and party loyalty. Appears not to translate into votes for Plaid Cymru, not decisively anyway. Suggests growing interest across some political parties other than the ultra Unionist Tory Party. Where 3/4 Tory candidates for election would abolish the Senedd. Those who vote Tory give support to sedition.

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