Tories won’t break into Labour ‘Red Wall’ seats, according to Senedd election poll

The Tories won’t break into Labour’s so called ‘Red Wall’ seats at the Senedd election, according to a new poll.

Labour lost a number of seats to the Conservatives in Wales at the General Election in 2019, but the latest survey shows them holding on to them at the Senedd.

However, Labour might have to strike a deal with Plaid Cymru if it wants to form a majority government, with the poll showing them losing ground to the Welsh nationalist party.

The poll for ITV Wales, which was conducted by YouGov, suggests that Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party remains on course to win seats in the institution it wants to get rid of, and the Liberal Democrats could hold the one seat it has, despite not gaining ground overall.

These are the number of seats each party would have:

• Labour 26

• Plaid Cymru 17

• Conservative 14

• Abolish the Assembly 2

• Liberal Democrat 1

Analysis by Prof Roger Awan-Scully of Cardiff University shows there would be just one Conservative gain from Labour, in the Vale of Glamorgan, which has been a Tory seat at Westminster since 2010.

But, the Conservatives are no longer on track to repeat their 2019 General Election gains from Labour in Ynys Mon, Vale of Clwyd, Delyn, Wrexham and Clwyd South in north Wales, plus Bridgend in south Wales.

Plaid Cymru are con course make two gains from Labour, in Llanelli and Blaenau Gwent, as well as to hold on to hold Ynys Mon.

‘Results’ 

These are the results of the poll in the constituencies. The shift in support since the last poll is shown in brackets:

• Labour                      35% (+3%)

• Conservative            24% (-6%)

• Plaid Cymru.            24% (+1%)

• Reform UK                4% (+1%)

• Abolish the Assembly 3% (no change)

• Lib Dems                   3% (-2%)

• Green                        3% (+1%)

Here is what the poll found on the regional list votes,. The changes since last month shown in brackets.

• Labour                       33% (+2%)

• Plaid Cymru              23% (+1%)

•  Conservative             22% (-6%)

• Abolish the Assembly   7% (no change)

• Green                           5%  (+2%)

• Lib Dem                        4%  (no change)

• Reform UK                    2%   (+1%)

YouGov polled a representative sample of 1,142 Welsh voters, who were aged 16+. It was conducted between 18th and 21st April for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University. The margin of error was +/-4%.