The strange death of Welsh nationalism
Chris Carter
Welsh nationalism is far from dead. The street movement is stronger than ever, 10,000 people rallied in support of Welsh independence in Bangor this weekend. However, the Welsh nationalist movement’s only political party, Plaid Cymru, is in dire straits.
The party is falling further and further behind in opinion polls following the embarrassing resignation of Adam Price in May this year, after a series of failures to deal with a “culture of sexual harassment” within the party, led to a damning report and Price’s resignation.
For the uninitiated, Plaid Cymru have been Wales only electorally successful pro-independence party in the nation’s history and is facing not only more humiliating defeats, but seeing its influence over Welsh politics weaken by the day. In order to find out what went wrong, it pays to start at the beginning.
Historic Success
The late 90’s were a great time to be a Welsh nationalist. In 1997, the referendum on devolution was secured by the slenderest of margins. Plaid then triumphed in the 1999 Welsh Assembly elections, capitalising on the post-referendum national sentiment and a bitterly divided Labour Party.
Everything appeared to be going Plaid Cymru’s way, having successfully taken heartland Labour seats, Islwyn and Rhondda, unexpectedly opting for Plaid for the first time, and becoming the main party of opposition in the first Parliament.
Three decades after winning their first parliamentary seat, the party of independence was at long last the primary antagonist to Labour’s position in Wales and now chief challenger in former coalfield strongholds at the dawn of the 21st Century.
All seemed to be blowing Plaid’s way at the foundation of Wales first parliament since the Glyndŵr uprising six hundred years prior.
The Fall
So why, nearly 25 years later, is today’s Plaid in freefall?
In 2023, Plaid Cymru finds itself embattled on all fronts. Not only have they recently lost a well recognised leader, political problems continue to mount.
Their main political challengers, the Labour Party, are the most popular they have been in a generation. Boundary changes for MPs being sent to Westminster have reduced Wales representation from 40 MPs to 32. It leaves Plaid with just two safe Westminster seats, Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Ceredigion, down from four.
The changes have forced the party on the defensive against staunch challenges in heartland Carmarthenshire, where they hold a narrow majority, while Arfon is lost to boundary changes. Ynys Mon, while currently having a Conservative MP, is their only other likely gain going into any general election, where they are in close third.
Outside of this handful of Westminster seats, one is hard pressed to find anywhere the party can expand its outlook.
Plaid’s cousins in Scotland, the SNP, by contrast had middling success in the 2010 general election. This being the election the year before they swept to power in the Scottish Parliament and held a referendum on independence, despite only winning 6 seats out of 59, were second in 28 seats.
In Wales, Plaid Cymru are second in no Westminster seats. Let us not forget, 2019 was one of Labour’s worst results since 1935, surely an opportune moment for an insurgent centre-left (albeit nationalist) party in Wales to take advantage? And if not then… when?
The Party of the Welsh Language
It’s evident that Plaid Cymru’s influence is largely confined to Welsh-speaking areas. This is a country where the mother tongue is not spoken by 75% of the population according to the 2021 Census. It leaves slim pickings for hopes of parliamentary success in Westminster and more worryingly, the Welsh Parliament, where things do not look great either.
A Loveless Marriage in Cardiff
At the Senedd, Plaid languish in third place behind the Conservatives. Repeatedly forced to support, rather than lead, Labour administrations at the Senedd through either formal coalition like in 2007 or entering into confidence-and-supply style arrangements with the current 2021 co-operation agreement.
Therein also lies the problem for nationalist politicians: it is nearly impossible to displace Welsh Labour from its heartlands. In particular vote-rich Valleys and South of Wales have persistently sent Labour representatives to county halls, Cardiff Bay and Westminster.
Plaid Cymru know in order to achieve the dream of independence they need to win populous areas in South Wales, especially the cities of Cardiff, Swansea and Newport, not to mention multiple valleys to secure a referendum over Wales future. Areas they hold virtually no representation in.
Welsh Labour have also taken time to learn the lessons their Scottish sister party had to learn the hard way when they were almost wiped out north of the border. They have their own playbook for keeping Plaid Cymru at bay and despite public disputes over issues like free school meals, they ultimately need one and other to govern at the Bay.
By hugging Plaid close, Labour continue to prevent the differentiation the SNP managed before their breakout election in 2011 that nearly ended the 300 year union.
More anecdotally when researching this piece, a defector to Plaid Cymru from Labour admitted to me that they are much more disorganised than Labour when it comes to being an effective campaigning machine. Some things public polling and election data cannot explain. One being that sometimes you need to be able to organise an army of door knocking volunteers, or at least a few highly dedicated ones, in order to win.
Green Shoots?
This is where three beams of light shine through. The first being that Plaid have a fair spread of local Councillors engaging in pavement politics. At Council level, they run four Welsh Councils in Welsh speaking heartlands and are the main party of opposition on the more anglophone Caerphilly and Rhondda Cynon Taf Councils, with representation on Vale of Glamorgan, Neath, Conwy, Wrexham and Denbighshire Councils.
The voting system for the Welsh Parliament is also soon to change, adopting a proportional voting system, which will make the party less vulnerable to the brutal first past the post system that left them in this serious predicament in the first place. It goes to show the nationalist tail can wag the Labour dog, the changes to the voting system, as well as the Senedd’s expansion were cannily negotiated by former leader Adam Price after all.
Finally, following the resignation of Adam Price as leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth has been elected as their new media savvy and energetic leader. His main attack lines since being anointed leader have been directed at the Labour Party, which suggests a break from the easier relationship the Welsh Labour Government enjoyed under Price.
With his background in media at BBC Wales, many hope Rhun ap Iorwerth could be the knight in shining armour that Welsh Nationalism needs. The one to lead on the long march from Welsh-speaking heartlands, through the South Wales valleys and onto the Senedd. Though it is still far too early for nationalists to get their hopes up.
An Untimely End
As things stand, Welsh Nationalism’s political hopes are at their lowest ebb since the foundation of the Assembly. With the only real hope for Plaid being the potential for decline in the Labour Party’s historically high popularity, which is not a solid strategy however one looks at it. Though with record support for independence and a leader capable of capturing Labour votes, rumours of Welsh Nationalisms death may have been greatly exaggerated.
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The referendum was in 1997 NOT 1998.
This was NOT the first referendum. A far lower turnout this time around. No mandate really as many did not vote. A matter of continual referendum until we cash cows said Yes.
Although the title of this article is overdone (trying to tie it in with a famous book on the Liberal Party), Plaid have to get out of being a party which simply attacks everyone from a position further to the left of the Labour Party (appealing to very few on the political spectrum) and making cheap shots attacking every spending cut in Wales without ever providing credible solutions to how Plaid would continue to pay for that same service/project.
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I don’t believe Plaid’s vote is in decline. The polls suggest that it continues to flatline and the party struggles to make headway outside of its heartlands. In policy terms you couldn’t put a cigarette paper between Plaid and Labour on most issues bar constitutional matters. I struggle to understand Lab4IndyWales’ position. To me, the best outcome is that Plaid becomes a home to those indepenence supporting Labour members who share Plaid’s values. In the event of Welsh Statehood I fail to see the purpose of having two progressive parties on the same political territory and like Dafydd Iwan said… Read more »
Nationalism is at risk of dying for a number of reasons which have been well documented on earlier occasions. Plaid is part of the reason especially its “thought leadership” whoever they are. Far too easily distracted over recent decades into issues which would be better addressed when we have that vital self determination. Linked to this was the influx of screechy minority interests into YC. Not convinced they have gone away having switched focus into attacking national institutions from within. They act almost like a 5th column for “continuity colonialism” subverting Cymraeg and replacing it with an Anglophonic internationalism. New… Read more »
Plaid will never make progress until they accept Labour is the problem not the solution.
Labour is a Unionist party, just like the Conservatives, Lib Dems, etc. If someone is a Welsh nationalist then why on earth would they vote for a Unionist party. Those marching in Bangor, and indeed all the Welsh electorate who are fed up from Westminster centralism – where today we have been called a “province” by a Tory Minister – should not support Unionist parties. But many do!
Not so much for NATIONALISM but more for INDEPENDENCE and freedom from England to govern ourselves for Welsh people by Welsh people not having English UNIONISTS telling us what we can and cannot do without the bloody interfernce from the London Parliament we will not have to pay for the Royals Nuclear missiles massive Defence budget H S 2 the white Elephant forget what the london based press tell you you cannot afford as we England keep you LOAD OF BOLONY IF THEY KEPT US THEY WOULD HAVE GIVEN US INDEPENDENCE A LONG TIME AGO
There is a good point in this. It is that we call for a democratic Welsh State and are called “nationalists” by people who are blatantly trying to impose an invented British nationality on a people who have identified as Cymry for centuries. I’ve no issue with “Britishness” as a multinational pan-island set of cultural ties – but there is no such nation as Britain.
British wasn’t invented! It was co-opted by England. “Welsh” was the invented one in order for the English to convert their population into British. You couldn’t do this if a people already knew they were British. “Welsh” = British = Britons = Brythoniad = Cymric people.
I don’t think the Welsh independence cause is on the decline, particularly amongst the youth, which is the most important group. However, it does appear fractured, definitely on the electoral front. As the article suggests more door knocking canvassers, in Plaids case, is something that needs to happen. But also far more leaflets, newspaper articles and other activities, promoting the benefits of independence, rather than just the marches. Independence needs to be at the forefront of every Welsh person’s mind.
Plaid needs activists and it needs to be far more professional if it is to be successful. It’s no secret but it appears that it has been beyond the party to accomplish this in recent times. But things can always change.
It’s not just the benefits of independence that need to be considered, the here and now is of more pressing concern, and neither Welsh Labour or Plaid seem to have much to say there, and the FibDems and Tories even less. If anything characterises Welsh democracy at the Senedd level it is it’s near apathetic state with less than 50% participation, i.e. people going out and casting a vote. It’s far more than just the goal of independence, it’s showing that at least people’s everyday concerns are being considered, that the party in power isn’t allowed to get away with… Read more »
Agree, it’s fractured but not sure how serious of a problem that is at this stage. The Welsh need to first decide on whether or not they would want independence before fretting over the mechanics of it. The movement is fractured, but that could also be considered as options. The formation of a modern democratic state. It’s the worry of ‘what if’ that is Wales’ Achilles heel. Overthinking and anticipating the worst. The primary question is simple. would we want to be independent? The answer comes from the heart not the head. If it is yes, then the Welsh people… Read more »
If Wales want independence and I think they do not , then why have Welsh Labour and Plaid in charge?
The young might support independentance due to the successes of the Welsh Baccalaureate examinations.
Do we really think that Starmer’s UK Labour will find traction in Cymru (the country soon to be formerly known as Wales)?
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The independence movement (what Chris Carter refers to as “nationalism”) is alive and well, as the Bangor march shows. Those who showed up included English settlers, so the claim of no diversity is invalid. But Carter is right to stress that it is not the indy movement but Plaid Cymru who have a popularity problem; it is very revealing that while support for independence or for devo-max has increased in recent years, support for Plaid Cymru has declined then levelled out at a figure well below that of the Wales Tory branch. The party’s problems are five-fold: 1/ the consensus… Read more »
Political parties are NOT about votes or MPs etc – they are about delivering outcomes and the positive change they seek. Plaid remains the most unsuccessful succesdful party in these Islands….with out a doubt. Even the great “ Lord from Meirionnydd’ saw this. its influence and effect on others has been profound and its talented leaders across the years have delivered through moving Wales forward. i awaited a delayed train change at Wolverhampton station some dozen years back with an impressive and still sharply dressed Aberystwyth bound academic type. He was happy to expound his views on Plaid and its… Read more »
Plaid Cymru have not yet grasped the list of recommendations ..a list of 82 actually in to their naughty and disgraceful activities as reported by their own investigations. No Troll comments please.
It destroyed itself by trying to appease minorities of minorities. We British are in the position we are because we have a history of self destruction. It’s a terrible British (Cymric) characteristic that those over the Border feed on.
Think 🤔 you might have muddled
“ Britons “ one of several ancient Romano names for the collective / diverse tribes here – they encountered – with British – an attempt by those who disposed the Scottish / Ireland parliaments to rebrand greater English to Great British..