Welsh Labour at a crossroads – what should it do next?

Martin Shipton

There’s considerable irony in the fact that the party responsible for the introduction of devolution in Wales now has three times as many MPs at Westminster than MSs in Cardiff.

Labour’s catastrophic defeat in this month’s Senedd election has changed the dynamic within the party – and created a perilous moment that, if handled badly, could easily turn what was a dominant force for so long into a small entity on the margins of Welsh politics.

From the outset, most Welsh Labour MPs have been lukewarm towards devolution. Behind the scenes – and sometimes overtly and even brazenly – they have opposed more powers for the Senedd, which is why, unlike in Scotland, for example, the Welsh Government has no responsibility for policing.

The devolution of policing is official Welsh Labour policy, but Welsh Labour’s deputy leader Carolyn Harris, the MP for Neath and Swansea East, has publicly stated that she doesn’t agree with devolving police powers to the Welsh Government.

Absurd as that is, if you ask a Welsh Labour politician how such a contradiction is acceptable, the response will be some waffle about how there’s room for different views.

Sometimes Welsh Labour MPs have shown open hostility towards devolution, but more often it has been indifference.

It’s credible to argue that purely constitutional points don’t have much traction with voters, although many are unhappy about the fact that the Senedd has less powers than the Scottish Parliament.

But when the issue at hand strays into the area of “standing up for Wales”, there is plenty of polling evidence to show that people expect politicians to be on board.

Geraint Davies, who was the Labour MP for Swansea West from 2010 to 2024, recalls the indifference of colleagues from Wales when he raised concerns about Wales being treated badly by the UK Government.

He said: “There were a number of occasions when I led Westminster Hall debates about the injustice of HS2 funding [with Wales missing out on potentially billions of pounds because the high speed rail line was designated as an ‘England and Wales’ project, even though not a metre of the route passes through Wales] or the devolution of Crown Estate revenue. I was raising important matters that had a direct bearing on how much money the Welsh Government gets from the Treasury, but only tiny numbers of Welsh Labour MPs would show up, like Nia Griffith and Beth Winter, as well of course as the Plaid Cymru MPs.

Westminster Hall debates take place on the Parliamentary estate but outside the Commons chamber, have no legislative or direct financial consequences but provide a forum where important issues can be aired.

Such indifference on the part of Welsh Labour MPs may not have been noticed in the past, when the focus was very much on the Labour Welsh Government, which when there was a Tory government at Westminster opposed moves to roll back devolution and adopted an unequivocal “standing up for Wales” position on funding issues.

But with the new imbalance of representation – 27 MPs and only 9 MSs – the role of the MPs assumes a greater importance and provides no hiding place from scrutiny.

Anti-Wales positions

When I interviewed Ken Skates, the interim Welsh Labour leader, this week, I wanted to gauge the extent to which the party under his leadership would be prepared to challenge the UK Labour government when it adopted positions that appeared to be anti-Wales and whether he would support moves to make Welsh Labour an autonomous party able to pursue its own agenda when it differed from that of UK Labour.

He ruled out the creation of an autonomous, self-sustaining party on the basis that it would be wholly unaffordable: while at its peak during the Senedd election campaign, Welsh Labour had 18 full-time-equivalent employees, it would only be able to afford to employ one and a half employees with the money it raised in Wales.

In response, Geraint Davies has suggested that some of Labour’s big union donors could be persuaded to back a more radical Welsh Labour party, while others have pointed out that Plaid Cymru seems able to afford a fully functioning party infrastructure.

During our interview, Skates refrained from criticising the UK Labour government, and stressed how important it was for the party in Wales to be united.

In an article published by Nation.Cymru this week, Mark Drakeford argued that since Labour’s general election victory in July 2024, Welsh Labour had given up on the “standing up for Wales” stance it had maintained under his leadership and that of his two predecessors, Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones.

Ineffectual

Eluned Morgan’s “Red Welsh Way” as a supposed counterweight to Starmerism was short-lived, ineffectual and ultimately never more than an empty slogan.

Skates has said his group will scrutinise the actions of the Plaid Cymru government robustly, which coming from an opposition party is perfectly legitimate. And with Plaid lacking an overall majority, Labour is in a position to seek policy concessions in return for supporting – or at any rate not opposing – the Welsh Government Budget.

But Labour MPs have already started sniping at Plaid in a way that plays to Reform’s agenda. Chris Bryant, a Foreign Office minister himself, criticised the announcement that Rhun ap Iorwerth will be responsible for international relations in addition to his duties as First Minister.

Bryant’s point was that foreign affairs is not devolved and that the Welsh Government should be concentrating on domestic issues – precisely the point made by Reform UK. In doing so he failed to acknowledge that previous Labour First Ministers had performed exactly the same function, in a bid to enhance international trading links – vitally necessary after the self-inflicted economic damage of Brexit.

Commons veteran

One wouldn’t expect the xenophobic idiots of Reform to understand that, but better should be expected from a Commons veteran of 25 years like Bryant.

U-turns on previous policy commitments – like justice for Waspi women and ASW pensioners – also hasn’t played well.

Labour in Wales, then, stands at a crossroads. It can throw in its lot with whoever leads UK Labour following the Makerfield by-election – Andy Burnham if he wins, who knows if he doesn’t – or decide that the wiser strategy is to try to reclaim its previous position as the foremost party that stands up for Wales. That should be seen as an urgent necessity, given that Plaid Cymru is now in government and will do everything it can to emulate the SNP’s success in establishing itself as the natural party of government in Scotland.

Given that their party’s impact at the Senedd will, through mathematics alone, inevitably be limited, the 27 Welsh Labour MPs should concentrate their efforts on standing up for Wales at every opportunity and as a cohesive force, even when that means criticising the UK Government.

But will they do so? I somewhat doubt it.